mitchnick

But how's it smell at the Inner Harbor?

There's too many old, married men in this subforum living in the past. Lol

Thanks to this weekend and next weekend with a similar event, Euro says drought conditions may be ending very soon. Just hope it's right.

Some decent cams of the storm at this link. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/

Just be sure to wear a bullet proof vest.

Just remember come winter that the Canadian has done really well with this event, as it appears now at least.

Yep. And you could say the Ukie jumped on board too. Lol

That's not new. It's the September updates we all saw except for the BOM (they need to add another "B") and the Cfs which both update constantly to insure their reputations of being constantly wrong. EDIT: In fact, that graph is off the BOM site you linked to in your post yesterday referencing the BOM update. Don't know why you would feel inclined to post it as if it was something new. It's mid-month and the Twitter hypsters are running short of material.

18z Canadian (GGEM) sticks with heavy rain. Bigtime totals thru 84 and still raining heavy at 84 hrs.

Yep. Idk, I think we get 1-2" with this system. I just don't buy the Euro and Ukie at this point.

Here you go 40/70 Benchmark. Stolen from Phillywx.

18z Gfs is a nail biter west of Gettysburg.

Rgem is back too. And still raining hard at 84 hrs.

Nam is 2"+

Srefs total and rain still falling at the end of the run.

Fwiw, 15z srefs just coming out now still say it's coming. Run isn’t finished yet.

Heading back home. Good riddance!

JMA denies Japan bombed Pearl Harbor.

NAVGEM a pretty good hit, though you were probably not serious. Ukie is meh and attached. 6z Gfs back to 2"+.

There's no new information in it except for their declaration there's a coupled Nino (barely per MEI) and +IOD. I thought we knew that already. Honestly, your post sounded like there was something new which is why I thought you were referring to the BOM model.

Agree, and unlike the BOM, the CFS has been lowering the ONI in response. I do note that today's run did have a few ensemble members warmer than the mean. First day it showed that in a while.

Honestly thought similarly. Even has that strip of convergence leading to heaviest precip near the western edge.

Could it be right? I suppose, but the problem it's been having is putting the MJO on steroids. It did it a few weeks ago and I recall you posting how the MJO was finally kicking in and failed as it has all year. So I've posted the latest on the site BOM MJO forecast on top then the Euro and JMA since they've been fairly unimpressed with the MJO waking up. As you can see, BOM is on its own ending the run in left field...literally! Lol EDIT: I do note that the BOM plot is 2 days old, so I'll post the updated forecast when available, but I doubt it will be anywhere near the other 2 models.

18z Icon remains on board.

Gefs