mitchnick

It's OK to believe these Gfs temps. I'm telling ya', I'm feeling this.

Like I posted earlier today I believe, none of the models showed this dip in 3.4 for with their September updates only 4 weeks ago. If you go back to the Cfs site linked below, it started to reflect a dip around the 8th of the month. It now has the dip and then a rebound, but only to a peak in December of around +1.75C on its monthly forecast and between +1.6-1.7 on the seasonal forecast. So if the Cfs has a better handle on things, it won't make super. Of course, the other models don't update daily like the Cfs so we'll never know if they would have seen the dip. Your favorite model apparently thinking it's forecasting for the planet Mercury, the BOM, missed it completely...even on its 9/23 forecast! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

Nope.

I will say nothing further on this issue beyond this post because I doubt I will come across as anything other than acidic. But i don't believe we can believe any article written by either side unless it has been peer reviewed and commented on by both sides of the issue. Everybody receiving a paycheck in journalism has an agenda and everbody else has an opinion they want to push. I equate these kinds of articles as using a forecast to verify a future forecast period. One last thing. I'm in my 60's and was already a weenie in the 70's, and there WAS a lot of news on the issue of the climate going colder. In fact, I do remember seeing a Time cover story suggesting climate was turning colder. I'm done.

We (me) got nada from Nemo. Another painful miss in my weenie winterless world that year. But thanks for reminding me. lol

I don't believe any of the models in their September updates predicted this drop. How anyone thinks he/she/models can accurately predict ONI numbers, and sound so confident about it, is laughable. Yet, we've all seen the tweets/posts.

There's a known problem with the Gfs surface temps that Ncep is working on from what I've heard. So it's hard to say when its surface forcasts of way AN temps is from its bias or legit. But if the Canadian has it, I buy the threat.

The same Gfs that predicted days of consecutive 100+ this summer?

Good chance it drops next week.

I posted this yesterday. Waters around Japan cooling rapidly as of 9/25, so no reason to worry about that yet imho.

You're not getting super with that steady erosion of subsurface + anomalies. Something needs to change to stop the cooling and rebuild them. And I mean actually change, not progged to change.

Yeah but...

I don't read X, but does this guy make an actual forecasts at range, or does he just throw out "possible extreme outcomes" he never technically predicts? I've never seen anything he's posted that strays far from that schtick which is why I ask.

A week ago I would have been disgusted by that, but my attitude has changed after 2.5" of rain with another 1" possible.

Nam now joining the Canadian with appreciable rain Friday into Saturday. Nam is >1" while Canadian at 12z is just under and inch. This does favor east over west at this point. Icon says they're both nuts.

I wish I could see the amount of foam pouring out of Snowman's mouth right now.

First 2 Niños I was old enough to be a weenie and experience were 77/78 & 82/83. Boy did they ever skew my expectations for Niños. Lol Both had decent Decembers in the Mid Atlantic

Fwiw, total was 2.2". Heavy drizzle has resumed.

Sorry. I was cleaning out my attachments and deleted a few too many recent ones. Anyway, here's the link. You can get more info than what I originally posted. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Finally an event this year that performed as advertised.

2" on the dot 5 minutes ago with lt rain continuing.

Starting to see that sought after wintertime pivot in the radar echoes, with areas north of Westminster, MD in the jackpot zone.

Center looks to be cutting ENE now from southern MD as rain is starting to fill in again around Baltimore. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DOX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

6z Euro as well as other guidance has Ophelia's center passing to our SE so we'll stay under the NW precip field most of the day. It's become your typical inland runner at this point with much needed rain.

Raining steady. From a distance, it looks like 1.5"+ in the gauge. Precse measurement when I feel like getting wet.