mitchnick

Even their maps look like they're in Japanese

I never have a problem with the supply lines, especially using sharkbites. But those drain lines, that aren't even under pressure, haunt me.

I've been out of action lately because I'm redoing my 2nd floor hall bath. I hired a guy to do a couple things I've never done before like ripping out a fiberglass tub and shower unit and setting a new tub. But I'm doing the rest like demo-ing the floors and walls, installing new ceramic floors and tub walls, painting, installing the new vanity with new fixtures and drains. That said, there's nothing I hate more than simple plumbing, as in installing new drains pipes from a new sink. I'll be d@mned if I can get that d@mn drain line connected to the bottom of the sink without that sob leaking ever so slightly. But I refuse to call my plumbing contractor back until I run out of 4 letter words. The only thing that has saved me is that one of the 2 sinks went in fine with no leaks while the other one is on the 3rd try. I have my fingers crossed that there's no water in the bucket tomorrow morning. Can't wait to refocus my life on more important things like model runs and high/low temperatures.

Are you still predicting a tri-monthly will reach +2 or are you saying that there will be a daily/weekly/monthly reading of +2?

Temps started rising before sunrise. Methinks southerly winds just above the deck have kicked in.

36 point something here with tons of frost. Still time to make it to 35. THV at 33 for the last 2 hours.

Fyi, that 850 anomaly map is dated 10/15. That burst has come and gone and we see what happened to 3.4.

Just wait until you get old. Lol

Probably because the ridge in SE Canada started hooking up with the SE Ridge only to spawn the bastard child known as the winter of 22/23.

Those Meteo France maps you post look so different than those I posted off the Euro site. The Euro site look much better. Lol I'll go with them!

Agreed that yhey are likely using the Euro, but I don't think the Euro Seasonal is quite as bad as you state. It looks like the 3 month mean is skewed due to December. If you look at the monthlies of D-F you can see how the Euro weakens the trough and moves it east and builds a EPP/PNA ridge.

MEI is .60. Don't know if that was a typo or incorrect info.

1. I’m willing to bet that a typical +2+ ONI peak of past El Nino events would have had at least a small area of +3+ nearer to the equator. Even a high +1+ ONI could possibly support a narrow +3+ area there since the center portion is always significantly warmer than the ONI level. Could be, idk. My opinion is more based on the peak it's showing as well as the longevity i.e. 3 month average. 2. Do you know what climo base is used for the 2m temp anomalies by JAMSTEC? Yes, 91-20 per the site. 3. Hopefully this run isn’t too cold in the SE as it has been significantly too cold before. I’d sure love a 1-2 F BN DJF, the coldest on the entire map! I've always felt it can never be too cold if you're south of NE, but that's from a lifetime of living on the coastal plain just north or south of BWI.

I should have added, there are apparently 3 models that make of the average shown. The F2 model is the warm one while the F2-3Var is much cooler. Unfortunately, the 3rd model Fsii isn't available on the site. The point is, I believe the mean is skewed by F2.

For a 3 month period, I still say it's absurd. 1 month maybe, but time will tell.

Some frost on the roofs here. Down to 39 imby and atleast 37 at THV. NWS forecast had a predicted low of 43.

Jamstec updated October forecast out. Snowman19, you'll need some time alone in a locked room with its absurd SSTA forecast. Here are the DJF maps for SSTA, surface temps and precip. Link to all info here: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

My problem is grubs. I had the same problem at my Maryland house, all 32 years I lived there. Must be the clay soil there and here too.

I was going to mow tomorrow and then fertilize. Looks like I need a bag of Sevin instead of Weed and Feed. Thanks! Too bad I still plan on cutting it at 1" once we get a forecast for accumulating snow.

With the atmosphere always trying to balance things out, and conventional wisdom being temps are going to be BN (PV temps) thanks to water vapor, why wouldn't that balancing process include warming eposodes (blocking) or SSW events? Just a thought.

First of all, they don't state how much above normal. Second, take out 82, 97, & 15 since we're getting that high this year, and possibly 72. I'm sure that makes a difference, if not in percentages as shown, definitely in the degree of AN.

Idk if I'd call Nino 1+2 +2.3C well over 2C, but I do know that there's a very clear trend on this graph.

This SSTA animation shows it nicely as well. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

@GaWx This JMA site hasn't updated yet, but it should any day. It has temp and precip anomalies. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html