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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Ensembles all look like dog doo, so it's hard to get excited until that changes.
  2. mitchnick
  3. mitchnick
    Odd, because Coral Reefs went the other way a bit.
  4. mitchnick
    Icon and Gfs say we got a chance next week at 1st measurable snow. Edit: Missed Jns2183 post re Gfs.
  5. mitchnick
    Yep. Cfs OLR prog lock step with MJO prog. Best part for Mid Atlantic and further south I believe, it ends up just east of the dateline. May be good for NE, but not certain about that.
  6. mitchnick
    25
  7. mitchnick
    Surprising to see 3 drop so much in the last week.
  8. mitchnick
    Not that I feel at all comfortable defending the Cfs, but once it lost the +2 handle back in late August or early September, unlike all other guidance, it's done best. Can it cr@p the bed now? Sure, but the next warming isn't like the last one.
  9. mitchnick
    Fyi, current take by the Eps.
  10. mitchnick
    Agree with the bump, but not enough to push the mean over +2 for a month or more.
  11. mitchnick
    Yeah, Cfs is still unimpressed. I mention it because it is updated daily unlike the rest of the guidance.
  12. mitchnick
    Courtesy Eskimo Joe
  13. mitchnick
    Ashame that model he posted to forecast the month only goes out to the 12th and changes every day along with every other MJO prog.
  14. mitchnick
    20.1
  15. mitchnick
    That's not new. Both of us have posts referencing it and yesterday I posted how the Cfs had weakened it over the past 3 days.
  16. mitchnick
    Whooops....missed that.
  17. mitchnick
    Another tick lower last night.
  18. mitchnick
    Cfs has weakened the next WWB over the last 3 days fwiw.
  19. mitchnick
    There's nothing definite in weather. Essentially everyone was calling for a warm December, including the showman Webb. Now look at his about face. Lack humility in weather forecasting, be ready to be humiliated.
  20. mitchnick
    If the weak PV forecasts are correct, the "classic" Niño response you are referring to will have its hands tied around its back. And with the Eps, Gefs, Geps, and Cfs all supporting the weak PV, it looks unlikely imho.
  21. mitchnick
    Now I'm not sure if it's an apples to apples Cfs comparison to the weathermodels site posted by stadiumwave, but to my eyes the latest Cfs runs off the Tropical Tidbits site are showing January and February 10mb maps with a weaker PV than December. All 3 months are below.
  22. mitchnick
    It is the Cfs, but still...
  23. mitchnick
    As someone (Ga or Griteater I believe) posted earlier about another westerly burst in December, Cfs and Gfs are both showing a relaxation of westerlies until mid December. Cfs is really gung-ho with the December burst as of now.
  24. mitchnick
    Yes. It would be even nicer to get 1 SSTA number as well. Not until this year did I even pay attention to all of them. lol
  25. mitchnick
    2.2" on the dot. Highest qpf event since summer 2021 when an afternoon of thunderstorms dropped 5".
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