mitchnick

We're better off with a weakened PV like the Euro is showing vs SSW. And the Euro doesn't even have to be right for that matter. Just keep the PV from looking like the great Saturn storm and we'll have a chance imho.

Doesn't strike me as a very wet pattern on the EC, which just adds to difficulty for getting a decent snow event(s).

TT MONTHLY CFS maps are based on last 12 forecasts of 1 member TT WEEKLY CFS maps are based on last 12 forecasts of 4 members. CFS site uses 40 members 4 runs a day for prior 10 days. So you will get different results, but WB is always inexplicably colder.

Cansips February forecast looks similar to the last Euro weekly forecast on that tweet fwiw.

Thanks Larry. Do you have the NA 500mb map handy for January? This temp forecast with the colder SW and SC Canada into the Dakotas and GL seems to have support from the various CFS sources and Cansips fwiw. Thanks again.

Line that came thru here was snow, but really dried up despite radar returns.

My wife makes THE best chocolate chip cookies and last year I said "why not dip 1/2 in melted chocolate. " Oh boy are they delicious. I mention it only because I'm making a pig out of myself with them now waiting for snow (I hope.) Just sayin'

Line of heavy precip in my doorstep. Rain or snow? Stay tuned...OK then, turn off the TV, I don't care.

On an unrelated note, new Wawa in Dover opens tomorrow. Hanover supposed to be before the end of the year. Yippee! Can't wait to be the first to try the bathrooms. It's an oldster thing, ya' know.

It does get harder as you get older, but I can still get used to it. My bigger issue is every time I hear the furnace goes on I cringe. Lol

Every time people mention MU I think of the pastor of my church. He started out a Met major at MU in the mid-2010's but ended up a political science major because of the math. By the time he graduated, he got the calling and ended up in the Seminary.

Things that are now...and the wacky Cfs2 sporadically, and often inexplicably, shows in the future. Often by itself. Lol

Cold

I know exactly what it's all about, hence why you cherry picked.

What I was questioning goes back to my original post about grabbing a forecast frame and comparing it to another later forecast like Bluewave did while disregarding an opposite result on the same run for a different period. Go back to my original post. I acknowledged the computers are flawed. My use of the word "bias" was in response to Bluewave's cherry pick...yes, cherry pick.

I'm sorry, I don't believe this model bias talk. If there was a proven bias, we would be hearing about it from all the Mets as the reason for their blown forecasts. Anyway, the models are run so many times a day, what runs are you going to use and how often do you check? And is this bias on all the models all the time or some of the models some of the time? It's a moving object that never stops. There's no doubt the models are flawed, but using 1 particular time on run vs another 1 particular time on a run to prove a point is cherry picking where I come from. Especially if you can take a different time on the same run and show the model has gotten colder. Frankly, I'm still trying to figure out the point of the exercise. I have my thoughts, of course.

Legalized gambling really. OK, I guess, as long as you know that going into it, but it's not for me. You're really trying to predict wx models and not the weather, because by the time the weather becomes certain, you've already lost or made your money.

We'll get the Euro monthly tomorrow if I'm not mistaken. I think it comes out on the 4th of the month these days??? So we'll have 1 more piece of guidance to fight over! Lol

Here's even a better example. 2 weeks ago, 11/18 forecast, for the week of 122-12/9 on top. Yesterday's forecast for the same week that's upon us so there's no question how close the prediction will be.

And from the same runs looking 2 weeks later, the weeklies did this. It happens all the time. Models are crap shoots. Lots of variations based on projected timing.

Orthopedic surgeons will have a banner 2025.

Or flatten the Appalachians.

Every location is different and I don't claim to know the various climos around PA, only mine. If I had to guess right now, I would say plus or minus 1-2 degrees from normal Dec-Feb average. So close enough to normal that most normal people won't notice. But considering how warm winters have been of late, my guess is the average person will feel it cold even if not technically BN. Snow is the bigger issue for most of us and, so far at least, I'm not getting a great feeling about that imby due to dryness and the insufferable warm/wet-dry/cold tendencies of a Niña or cold neutral. Maybe different away from me, idk. P.s. Of course, this could change, but I'm basing it on what I've seen so far. Feb or March could be our wild cards for the better.

Although signs point to a cooler/colder January, models are indicating a little BN precip. That could change, but that change could mean drier too. What a hobby.

And so are us snow weenies.