mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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That's good. Gawx, I believe, did a post last week showing the MJO in the COD results in cold in the east.
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First time the mean dropped below the bottom red line. Per the explanation on the link: " During a SSW event, the ensemble (blue) will be close to the lower (more negative) extreme of the model extended range climate (ER-M-climate) (lower red line)." Here's the link if you don't have it. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202312110000
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Those are Gfs forecasts. Yesterday's Eps pretty much has it falling apart (almost.) I am posting the link instead of a pic because at the link you can look back at the prior 6 days of Eps forcasts. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes?base_time=202312100000&filter=no¶meter=zonal wind 850 hPa
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I've seen snow fall imby 3 days out of the last 7, one with an inch+, anotheŕ with a tenth or 2, and the other decent flurries. This week through Sunday per NWS is at or a little below normal with highs from the low to upper 40's and lows from the lower to upper 20's. I haven't looked at the days before Christmas, but I trust your analysis. When I step out of my whinny, weenie shoes, I would think this is feeling like a normal winter between now and Christmas.
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Storm radar starting around 7pm, but moves ahead the longer you wait to see it of course. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-200-100-usa-rad
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Looks like we wait until January unless we sneak something in during the last week of the month. It is what it is.
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Ditto here.
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This looks good, but would have been great a few degrees colder.
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Closest Wunderground site to me is 34. The one near the top of Pigeon Hills is already 32.
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Woke up at 12:43 with real wet snow and a coating on roofs. Might have a shot at a couple inches per radar returns....nah.
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That bright line moving east should be the rain/snow line. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad
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Yes. Just looking at Georgia radar and water vapor. Links to wv on top and radar on the bottom. On wv, check out how the clouds are expanding westward near KY and how radar in the state of GA is exploding/filling in. I like the trajectory too. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/seus/
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I have Pivotal pay site. They have everything the other sites have with the exception of Hemispheric Euro and Eps maps. All they have are conus, but I make due. Cross Keys Diner closed last year. I wasn't sure if that was the one the poster from Dillsburg was talking about or not so I made a point to look today when I drove by. Property went up for auction last year and whoever bought it has been trying to sell it ever since. Want to reopen a diner? Lol
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I'm retired. I have nothing to do but look at wx sites, find new home improvements, babysit, and complain...and not necessarily in that order.
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18z Euro looks meh. It's only because of that dang thing being so encouraging the past 2 days that I was optimistic, only to shiat the bed on the end. Canderson, I hope you have a mediocre time while in Europe.
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Yeah, I've been meaning to talk to you about that Bliz. I'm going to have to ask you to clean out your locker...
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Don't know if it is or isn't, but that could just be from the thunderstorm cluster in the area. In my weenie experience, we want the precip to be at least as far west as Charleston, WV. It is now. As long as the precip keeps blossoming as shown in that radar loop out of SW VA shows, we're good if we can get us some cold air.
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This is the radar site we need to be watching for tonight, and it is starting to light up! https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=FCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
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No, I'm referring to the week starting 1/1. Plus, you can still get snow in lousy patterns, especially a Niño.
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And people asked why I stopped posting there 5 and a half years ago. Lurking is enough for me.
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5h off today's Eps look great starting week 3, but especially 4, 5, and 6. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202312100000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401010000
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Ninja'd by Blizzard of 93!
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I don't know why. 5H looks good on both the Gefs and Geps, and that was after looking lousy 2 days ago. Just need a little time to cool things down. Euro looks like the other 2 from late last week. I expect it will come around, but we'll see.
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Amen.
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Yeah, it's funny how everybody thinks everybody else to their north and west just automatically gets more snow than them with every event. But trust me when I say my old digs south of Baltimore rarely scored better than any other location. Anyway, I trust you knew I was kidding. Welcome aboard.
