mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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This Eps product is pretty decent. You can read the full explanation at the link, but the colored dots represent each member of the Eps at 1 day for red, 5 days for pink, etc. Gives a much better idea of whether the mean is because of a consensus or an average of a huge spread with little confidence in the forecast. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202312080000
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Nice! You should do well. If I fail imby, I'm on the north side of town and only 7 minutes from the Laurel Hills subdivision atop Pigeon Hills. I know they'll jackpot, so I can't lose. That said, gun to head this very second, it looks like an inch or 2 event here with a lot of white rain. That can change between now and tomorrow night....it's an eternity when talking snow.
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I'm on my phone and just saw you're in Dillsburg. Are you in the lowlands like me or up on one of the hills to the west?
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I honestly haven't been in the NY forum for any reason since they split the site into subforums. NE, otoh, has some great posters, plus it's entertaining.
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Nam siblings are back in. Whewww...
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Agree. Let it be an early evening Christmas Day start time.
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Got the same feeling. Once we're into January, assuming all guidance with the trough in the east holds, we'll stop high 5'ing each other because of raw hands.
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Obviously not to be taken for face value, but the Gefs snowfall mean really jumped indicating that the Gefs suite is all in for snowfall unlike yesterday and before. But snowfall does not guarantee accumulating snow is the problem.
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Gem similar to Gfs on day 8. The way I figure it, both models need to average 15 miles east with each day's runs and we're gold.
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Staying a wee but too far inland. Only 32 more runs to adjust east.
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Gfs loading up at day 7+. I think this run is another biggy and likely better than 18z imho. But that's a hunch based on 5h
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Umm....Nams?
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Yeah. Nam actually has me at snow starting at 37 and then drops me to 33. I did fine with similar temps back in a March 22 event...4" But like Bubbler, would prefer colder. But you know what they say about beggars...don't waste your time looking for a handout from Mitchnick? NO! Can't be choosers!
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Get used to it. This is going to be an inland winter thru mid to late January imho. The best part is we're far enough inland to get in on some of the goods, also mho. Wet snows are very common to strong or super (+2C) Niños as we are in now. Gotta wait until February, maybe late January if we're lucky, before we can expect a "cold" storm. Also imho.
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You mean like the 210 hr bomb out your way on the 18z Gfs?
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Incredible how Nam and Euro are best. Shame DT's old E-E rule hasn't survived over the years with all those crummy updates. For those who may not know, E-E was when the Euro and Nam, formerly the ETA, were lock step, it was guaranteed per DT.
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Better than 12z, but not as much as I was anticipating. But it's a positive trend nonetheless.
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Rgem will show snow at 18z. First run it has....hmmmm.
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18z Nam....youzers. here's 3k. Snow tital at 60 hrs and 60 hr map showing snow still falling for many.
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Eps and Gefs. Geps is paultry and not worth posting.
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Sorry. I should be posting the PA maps.
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Euro maps
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Yep. And the area the board covers is large. First time I wondered in was for the 12/20 storm. I was happy with my 6" before the sleet hit, but those to the west and north did soooo much better. Anyway, 12z 3k Nam shows slp in central VA when it stops at 60 hrs.
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That's what happens when you don't look at the snow maps. No way it verifies, but pretty to look at. Sorta odd that it kills the snow out west, as that's the only model doing that. But it doesn't develop the slp until coastal NJ, so the cold isn't drawn in and the precip cuts off.
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