mitchnick

Grass and mulch caved, albeit barely!

Snow after briefly a mix to start.

You got screwed my friend.

I correctly posted a map at 360 hours that showed forcing over the W Hem. Period! Lol But even considering the map you posted, the trend is for forcing to weaken over the Maritime and end up over the W Hem. This can be seen by using the slide function to put the forecast in motion starting on day 9 (the first day of the period your map showed) and going to the end of the forecast, my 360 hr map. By the way, when did this site employ "model police" anyway? Lol https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2024121500&fh=216

Nope. He was obviously referring to monthly forecasts made before the month. You're talking about medium range forecasts that you claim are wrong. 2 different things completely.

I used the 360 hr forecast and not 6 day you used. You could at least use the same forecast period. Lol

He was talking temps, not snow. Why change the subject to snow or model forecasts? Unless you can show a model that showed colder than what has occurred, flawed modeling has literally nothing to do with it.

So what's your forecast, without hedging?

Vacation in Bedford County?

40/70 approved

There's always the 12z Icon.

And to think I was just about to post how much the Icon had improved imby. Never mind. Lol

Do you have a view of the hilltops?

Long range Eps says no more competing MJO forces.

Wouldn't shock me if the models drastically beef up or cut back on snow projections on the southern and eastern areas with the 12z runs as the temp difference between a coating/.5" and 2-3" is very slight. It's hard to think they had that nailed down before this morning.

Sorry, but not interested in snow if it means getting hrdps.

I have to chuckle when these people who make these proclamations with such certainty regarding MJO projections and the effects. How'd this guy, Peyton, do in the fall with his MJO and Conus temp forecasts? As stated earlier, we've been in the process of going thru 4 and 5 and have had the coldest start in the east in December since 2010, and Peyton is certain with future MJO progression and the results. Just more proof you can find anybody to say anything on the internet. Personally, I think the cooling of the warm pool (which continues) has something to do with the cool temps in the east despite phases 4-6, but you won't get any research on that since so many have predicted the world's demise because of it. Time will tell. As for the PDO, apparently an historically negative state does not preclude a +PNA. But the worm has turned on the -PDO imho.

That's crazy. I remember that winter well back in my old back yard a little south of BWI, and we had nothing from that.

Maybe, but weeklies have been consistent for a while with at or BN starting the week of 1/6, so I'll take the weenie route. Lol

Today’s weeklies have come in colder. Even has a large area of BN temps in the east the week of 1/6-1/13.

Huh...average a fading Niño with a weak Niña, and what do you get? La Nada...what else! Lol 20NOV2024 22.7 0.8 25.2 0.1 26.7-0.1 28.8 0.1 27NOV2024 22.5 0.3 24.9-0.2 26.4-0.3 28.5-0.1 04DEC2024 22.5 0.1 24.8-0.4 26.3-0.3 28.3-0.2

Don't look at the 3k.

There's no doubt, my southern location is a problem. But getting back to my original post, I just don't think the 10:1 accumulation maps are going to be as accurate as the Kuchera. That's really all I'm saying.

There was a big difference in a number of years from the 90's to before I moved up here. And I did do substantially better than BWI in 20/21 and better last year. But not so in the other 3 years.

My forecast has rain and snow starting at 1PM. I'm sure I'll have snow TV, but it's the accumulations I doubt.