mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Oh, great. More accidents there than intersections around here imho.
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Frosty all over here. Some day I'll say snowy all over here.
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You forgot "people who drive like me." Thanks.
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1. No I don't. 2. Past performance is no guarantee. 3. Eps just had a major upgrade, so assuming it will have same biases/errors is probably not something one would want to expect. 4. Eps still has better performance numbers, though I admit I'm not in love with that method. 5. It shows exactly what I want to happen just as the Gefs shows exactly what you want to happen! Lol
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You are a better man than I.
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THV got down to 25. Upper 20's and low 30's around me. Bit cooler than low 30's forecast.
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Snowman, that Geps map is not 500mb anomalies. It's run-to-run changes. This is the 336 hr Geps 500mb anomalies off 0z. As for the Maritime Niña standing wave, the 7-DAY EPS 200mb from 0z says it will be taking a seat by the end of the run. In fact, the hourly map says it's gone at 216 hrs.
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Icon moved north a bit, but still pretty nice considering. Question is whether it continues to move north toward the 12z Euro bullseye of NYC in future runs?
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On 2nd thought, it's probably just lag time for surface to catch up to air temp. Though, sometimes it could be snow cover too.
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Surface temps are cooler than 2m temps. Sometimes, it's the other way around. Snow cover? Idk Don't mind me, I worry about the well being of snakes in the grass.
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We have a decent breeze here.
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Per Pivotal Geps, the warmup in the MA & SE is not that much compared to Gefs and Eps, with the largest AN anomalies along the US border. Possible the Canadians sold the Wall Street folks a subscription? Lol https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmceens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&rh=2024121700&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 P.s. I have a Pivotal subscription, but I think the Geps are available on the free site if you don't.
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Yep. Canadian dry as a bone.
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Gfs is trying with scattered -snsh.
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Icon has been on its own for 3 runs in a row. That's the most runs in a row this year that any model has given me accumulating snow. So it's consistency will either be it's virtue or downfall.
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Never mind. 5H trough
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Is that an inverted trough on the Icon giving us that snow? I think so. Doesn't look like a norlun.
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Ninja'd But my map caters to us oldsters.
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Icon ftw again!
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I hope you let someone know where you're going. Your parents will be worried sick.
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MJO forecasts seemingly stalled the wave yesterday, but progression on most modeling is back to moving the wave into 7 and maybe 8. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html But looking back at some of the MJO forecasts I downloaded in November, we should have been in Phase 7 by today! Lol
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It doesn't matter much at this point, but Pivotal has added 6z and 18z Ukie runs.
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Icon still on its own, but there...somewhat.
