mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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True. But it's a retreating arctic High with SE winds and there's not the kind of model consensus you'd expect for a decent accumulation event. Don't get me wrong. Higher elevations will likely do as advertised, but imho anything to the south and east of the mts under 2" on the 10:1 maps will likely be 1/2" or less.
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You'll have a much better shot at accumulations with your elevation. I'll need to drive 6 minutes up to the peak of Pigeon Hills. Either way, everyone melts and/or gets washed away. Honestly, this move up here hoping for more snow has been disappointing to say the least. Snow nirvana it ain't! Lol
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I love ya' Bliz, but those 10:1 accumulation maps will never verify with these marginal events. Kuchera are far from perfect, but will end up being much more accurate with their reduced totals.
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We have a lot of clouds here, so that will limit us with a decent low if they persist.
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Idk. So different.
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18z Euro and Eps are on a different planet from the Gfs on the 21st.
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Painful...very, very painful.
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Gfs is very January 1996'ish with a Blizzard followed by a pattern change warmup. OK by me.
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Yeah...right. What else could you say.
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You're re-posting Cohen when he posts a 384 hr Gfs operational map because it supports your warmanista agenda? Oye
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Been a while since I've seen this ensemble prediction in a December with Enso 3.4 hovering at -.5C.
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I'm just too far south at this point. The 10:1 maps won't verify either.
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I am soooo tired of being on the edge of accumulating snow. Ughh Need more trending.
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Whatever happens before Christmas thru the NY, weeklies are and have been (as Larry posted earlier), adamant with parking a trough over or near the GL insuring at least average temps for the bulk of January in the central and eastern Conus. And that WILL feel cold after the past few years.
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Warmth is on the weeklies with the week starting 12/23, so there seems to be a bit of a conflict with the Eps.
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The way winters have hone recently, you just may be rushing the warmth. It's been hard to fight it.
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One caveat on above is we don't want northern stream to drop too far south out to our west or it's a GL special.
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I like Euro shift from 0z to 6z. Colder as a result too.
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Squall coming thru now. Looks like a tropical storm with strong winds and rain.
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10mb forecast maps on Gfs, Gefs, Gem, Geps, and Cfs are all indicating some hits over the next 2 weeks. But I don't think they constitute a major SSW. But maybe a precursor? Idk.
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I'm in Towson and it's headed right for me.
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Winds just shifted to the North, but rain is now torrential.
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Yeah, this map would get my attention if I traded NG futures despite being at the end of the run. P.s. there is cold before this, but not to this degree
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Yeah, I think we see some, but no big deal. Probably a Pivotal issue and not Gefs.
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Gefs continue to embarrass.
