mitchnick

GEFS having a hard time making up it's mind in the long range between runs. End of the 12z run 850 anomalies on top and end of the 18z on the bottom. 500mb maps with similar looks.

Interesting how the Euro weeklies keep delaying the warmup in the east. Yesterday's run keeps the east BN or within the normal scale thru 1/6. The only AN is the week of 1/6-1/13, and only gets it into the lowest AN scale of +.5-1C. The good news being, if correct, that won't prohibited snow chances completely being so close to the climo minimum.

This Pic of 11/25 SSTA forecast from updated Cansips is for Larry.

Here you go Jerry. Updated maps on TT. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024120100&fh=0

100% on that. The ground was snow covered almost all of January. Then, February flipped warm mid month and March was around +5 at BWI. Maybe because I was younger in 76/77, but I found 93/94 to be even more brutal, though not as unrelenting as 76/77.

Not interested. I think BWI (mby at the time) had a lousy 12" or so that winter.

Coldest winter on record in the east will get you those numbers, but that was far from the norm. I walked 200' out onto the frozen Chesapeake Bay that winter in January, 1977 at Sandy Point State Park. The Chesapeake Bay never froze like that again.

Helluva way to run a warmup on the Geps at the end of its run.

Looks like there must be a few members on the Gefs bringing the storm up the coast. Va/NC hit off the table this run...thank you Gypsy Helen for that reading today. You were right! Lol

Time to bring out the trusty "cold/dry, wet/warm" montra.

For me...yes. Clearfield, probably snow, at least in part.

12z Gem is going to look a lot like the Euro rainstorm I believe.

Needless to say, another Gfs mirage disappears.

Cuts off sw trough like Euro and n stream vort is indistinguishable

12z Gfs looks way different than 0z and 06 thru 144hrs.

Icon definitely not the Euro, but slower evolution than Gfs thru 180hrs.

Fwiw, Icon looks like Gfs'ish thru 174hrs.

I agree about everything being possible at this point. But seeing a Va/NC snowstorm for basically 3 runs in a row on the Gfs and then one pops up on the Gem last night, and I'm already googling grief counselors in the area!

So many possibilities with this one, but the Gfs/Gem scare me if it does emerge as a snowstorm vs the Euro rainstorm. Niñas are infamous for Va/NC snowstorms and the evolution "currently" advertised on the Gfs/Gem are just that, and except for a few tease runs showing a northward progression, they often fail to make it north of Fredericksburg, VA. Believe me when I say, from a BWI perspective where I spent most of my life, it is painful to suck cirrus through dim sunlight. Looking ahead at the ensembles and weeklies, this appears to be our only shot at a decent, accumulating snowfall before the pattern relaxation i.e. warming, though not outrageously so. All this is not to say that an 0z Euro scenario isn't out of the question, just that I have deeper scares from the southern fails. Lol

Even with the relaxation period, ensembles maintain a trough over or near Japan, which imho suggests the favorable pattern will return in some form or another aftet a few weeks.

Looks like The Climate Changer's back yard.

I take runs verbatim and judge them on that. In light of the fact the Euro and Canadian literally show nothing close to what the Gfs is showing, tells me it's a phantom storm anyway. But verbatim, it's a total screwgy for PA.

18z Gfs is pure evil.

Another "2 steps back" day again on the models. Fwiw, Cfs2 has been advertising a very dry December for months and it looks like it will get that right unfortunately.

The 3" line gets past me by the 13th but doesn't budge much farther after that. We start to moderate after the 15th but never gets too bad and yesterday's weekly run shows a cool down now for the Conus on the last week. Yesterday's weeklies temps here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202411280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202412090000