mitchnick

I don't like you already, even though I really should have given you a chance since my father was from W-B and my mother from Plains. Lemme think about it...

He cherry picked Ensemble products anyway, plain and simple.

One other thing no one, me included, has mentioned. Neither Canadian model nor the Ukie have had anything more than snow tv. I mean nothing outside of 1500'+. So if they win, we'll know better if there is a next time before the end of the world occurs when Taylor Swift dumps Kelce.

Don't know. We can't forget, however, how bad the Nams can be. 12z HRRR didn't look as bad as the Nams at all. Fwiw, 6z Eps cut back on totals but didn't kill totals out west like the Nams. Eps attached.

Yeah, the best runs had the 5h vort sharper and holding it back but now move it out and up faster. Maddening how all the money/research toward model performance still can't get them better 24-48 hours out. Everything becomes a nowcast, or so it seems.

Nams have weaker s/w so everything gets pulled east since you're not getting as strong a mechanism throwing moisture back into the cold. 6z Euro was similar but not as dramatic as Nams.

Well, my post was based on what modeling is consistently spitting out imby. Absolutely agree this is a classic elevation favored event, but modeling has me at 32-33 during snowfall. At night, that's cold enough for periods of 10:1 accumulations provided dendrite growth is cooperating up above. But as I said, I was never one to be concerned about the NWS forecasts. When I lived in MD for the first 61 years of my life, LWX almost always played catchup when it came to snow, so I lost interest in their forecasts.

If modeling holds thru the 12z suite, I'm sure they'll update me, not that I rely on NWS forecasts at all.

They cut me back! From "up to" a half an inch or less both Sunday night and Monday morning to just Sunday night. Not 1 model is anywhere near that paultry here. Lol

Nams definitely getting colder too. When the mod to heavy snow is falling on both Nams imby, temp drops from 33 to 32. At night, regardless of what the high is tomorrow, that snow falling at night at those temps will accumulate at close to typical ratios.

Pivotal not as generous with Kuchera totals as WB. Big hit for LSV regardless.

3k isn't finished, but it's a crushing for many AND I95. Wowzers.

And then there's the Nam. Me and my bleeding heart. Lol

This is the type of event that crushed my weenie heart back in MD. Not that the HRRR snowfall map is perfect imby with this, because it isn't, but I guarantee you it's right for BWI with literally no accumulations while 10 minutes west on the Baltimore beltway it drops 3". Ughh, I feel for my old neighbor who was a snow weenie like the rest of us.

Yep. HRRR basically maintained the -2 mb throughout the run vs 18z resulting in a uptick in snowfall. Nothing crazy more, but more than 18z in general.

HRRR is 2 mb deeper with the slp at 27 hrs vs the 18z run. Expect a bigger bomb this run methinks.

Ughh...the dreaded warm tongue. Only time you want to see that is in certain kinds of movies.

That's crazy. We had a lot of fog and clouds with a few hours at most of sun. We maxed in the upper 40's per nearby Wunderground sites.

Wonder how that post would look spoken in sign language.

Gfs operational went meh. We'll see what the Gefs do. Typically, especially at this range, they follow the operational.

We'll have to try it. But I'm addicted to the Starlight. Apparently, it was run by other people and got a not so great rep., but improved with current owners. It has been pretty decent since we got here 4 years ago.

This Eps product is pretty decent. You can read the full explanation at the link, but the colored dots represent each member of the Eps at 1 day for red, 5 days for pink, etc. Gives a much better idea of whether the mean is because of a consensus or an average of a huge spread with little confidence in the forecast. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202312080000

Nice! You should do well. If I fail imby, I'm on the north side of town and only 7 minutes from the Laurel Hills subdivision atop Pigeon Hills. I know they'll jackpot, so I can't lose. That said, gun to head this very second, it looks like an inch or 2 event here with a lot of white rain. That can change between now and tomorrow night....it's an eternity when talking snow.

I'm on my phone and just saw you're in Dillsburg. Are you in the lowlands like me or up on one of the hills to the west?

I honestly haven't been in the NY forum for any reason since they split the site into subforums. NE, otoh, has some great posters, plus it's entertaining.