mitchnick

Pouring harder than at any time today. No idea how much has fallen because it's raining outside. I wouldn't want to get wet.

Gut says that volcano may have something to do with it and the models are finally seeing it...whatever "it" is.

So you trust a 282 hr forecast off the Geps but not its MJO forecast? Honestly, it looks like you're trying to find any excuse for a lousy winter.

So you're predicting another 76/77. Got it.

Rain has started with an occasional sleet pellet. Nbd

Despite the recent warming, the Cfs fails to get the monthly or trimonthly to +2C. It's actually done pretty well since August, which was when it last had a forecast of +2C or more by now while Euro and other dynamic models were. Nothing says it can't fail now, but I would think it'll need to change direction real soon if it's going back to +2C or more.

Lotsa virga out there.

Although I generally agree, the problem we've been having is that all the ensembles are showing 1" of snow or less over their entire 360 or 384 hr runs. As long as that's the case, I just disregard operational snowfall as flukes with no "real chance" of happening. I guess that was my point with a weenie defeatist attitude. Lol

Why would Webb post a Euro monthly forecast when you have the weeklies that now cover the period? Don't answer, because it's rhetorical since I know the real answer.

If you run through the 0z EPS through the end of the run, the SE Ridge is essentially nonexistent, which is why I posted earlier that things would change this week. The other ensembles are that different. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023112000&fh=0

You can get a SE ridge in a Niño as well as back and forth, especially in Nov and Dec. So I don't think it's necessarily a Nina holdover.

I do think that's going to change starting this week.

We need consistent support for snowfall on the ensembles or we're just getting our chains jerked by the operationals imho. Ensembles have all had a run here and there that looked promising, then lost it. Just too early for anything legit unfortunately.

87-88 was a 2nd year Niño that likely just ran out of gas. Plus, it acted like a Nina back in BWI land if memory serves. The early November storm was the highlight of the winter as it turned out.

18z Gfs has the Euro signal fwiw.

Sleet in Novie is a win in these parts. I just hope the Euro and Canadian aren't jerkong our chains for the week after Thanksgiving.

EPS mean has 2"+ snow falling after 240 hrs., so it's seeing something.

So we're talking apples to apples, daily or weekly +2.3 is certainly possible. But what most here, as I understand it, are referring to are trimonthly numbers. I don't see a trimonthly or a monthly at +2.3. 2009 had 2 consecutive weeklies at +1.9 but only maxed at +1.6 with 1 trimonthly. Plus you now have a time issue since Niños traditionally peak the end of December, though some modelling suggest a January peak is possible this time. In any event, it seems to me you'll need at least one month at +2.3 to have any shot at a trimonthly at +2 or more.

They're just hyping it and keeping their fingers crossed they can get 1 month above +2C and claim victory since 1 trimonthly is nearly a mathematical impossibility at this point.

And the response in 3.4 from 10/16 to 11/16 has been to rise only .1C. So now what? He doesn't say.

Worlds apart? From what I've seen it's between strong between +1.6-1.9 vs. 2-2.3.

The boy who cried wolf is seriously on the doorsteps now. Seems like the last shot looking at projected trades.

Don't know, but it does say below the SSTA map: "These graphics are made with data from the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) & Coral Reef Watch datasets." https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php