mitchnick

First, you really should lose the hate. It's just the weather which none of us can control and many can't forecast accurately despite what they and their followers may think. But to answer your wx question, this attachment shows why I'm not yet impressed. 850 anomalies have already been strong from the west but ssta have still cooled. When and if that response materializes, then I will believe it. I should add, the westerly wind anomalies continue to be west of the dateline. I think that's the problem.

Like the weatherman who forecasts without looking outside, he needs to check actual ssta's.

Bastardi fwiw. Mentions a lot of the same factors discussed here. https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast

Admittedly, I do feel honored to make Snowman's hate list.

Tell that to my wife.

Although the latest MEI number hasn't updated, it looks to me like this Graph has been for September/October. Assuming I'm right, the MEI has DROPPED for S/O.

But it's the internet. Jumping to conclusions and off bridges is just what people like to do.

Though I agree with you, I wouldn't expect the Nina base-state to get erased fast enough to produce numbers like 09/10*. For those of us lucky enough to be in the right spot for snow event(s), be prepared for a lot of wet snow with powder a fond memory. *Speaking from a MA perspective.

Despite the location of the surface anomalies, the upper 300 meters have been shifting westward.

Unless I hear it from Eric Webb, I won't get excited.

So in other words, if your hopes for a winter ruining super Niño don't materialize this year, you have renewed hope that next winter will be ruined by a Niña. Something is wrong with you.

As a paranoid Mid-Atlanticer, I'm hoping to get rid of the La Niño in favor of an El Niño by 12/1. I'm in no mood to roll the dice on snowfall with a "unique" look.

37 at 5am. Don't know what has happened since. THV sitting at 30...what's new.

With all the large wobbles, I have a hard time thinking daily ensemble updates are really that useful. Seems they are just as bad, or close to just as bad, as operational runs. Jmho

Betcha' I know who loves Webb...

I'd be happy with a weak pv to at least avoid a December shutout and hope for the SSW down the road. Heck, we don't require a SSW event in strong Niños with well placed forcing anyway.

Link is here with graph on the right side of the page. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

27.2 so far, but 2 Wunderground sites near me have a 26 handle.

On a different note...

Looking at the surface temps as depicted on the SSTA maps, December has the east coast in the first AN level (don't see the legend, but I'm guessing+.5C-1C?) and the rest of the months are all in the normal range with some BN in February. That's not bad at all.

I think I've seen the Cansips late on TT 1, maybe 2 times, in the past many years. Usually out the evening of the last day of the month.

I admit it...I've been listening for the last 15 minutes.

Sounds good to me. Snow Water equivalent looks to be normal from Boston on south along I95 and westward beyond I81. I'll take that in a heartbeat.

Fwiw, updated Cansips from the Canadian site. Only map is a global map and no 500mb maps. https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=cansips-global

@FPizz Huh? I said I posted it yesterday and it was on the previous page.