mitchnick

If you watch these forecasts daily as I do, you will see that the long range forecasts for both positive AND negative anomalies are almost always weaker than reality i.e. typical ensemble forecasting. As proof, look at both the yellow and green areas on the 11/26 map and compare them. Otoh, this forecast period could be a cherry pick. The other problem is that I agree MJO forecasts aren't that great in general. Thus, I don't think you can say with certainty modeling is going to always be too weak with warm phases or too strong with cold ones. And if you can't say it with certainty, it offers no additional forecasting assistance and you're left guessing when it's too weak and when it's not. Regarding this month's Conus numbers, why don't we wait until the end of the month for actual numbers instead of assuming it ends up one way or the other? Clearly, it's looking on track for a typical December strong or super Niño. But since we have 25/30 of the month remaining, it probably makes better sense to wait before claiming that late November MJO forecasts for the early/mid month were flawed. Jmho

November QBO -15.94 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

I'm not on any train. I'm observing and posted actual conditions and 1 model's prog. Whether the MJO forcing makes it to 7-2 and what the consequences are remains to be seen. But there are other factors to the weather than the MJO. Moreover, the intensity and speed of the MJO passage will obviously have different effects on SSTA and weather.

2015. But a few weeks later...

Just in case anybody is interested, I found these OLR maps from late January and early February, 2010 in my desktop. I figure they might avoid some disagreement among memories as we get further along for comparisons. I have a few more from early February if anyone wants me to post them.

For those in the east that want to see a winter, you probably couldn't put the max heat potential in a better spot.

Probably not the end of it looking at the Oisst SSTA map and modeling showing continuing trades for around 7 days+. Cfs maps also attached are unimpressed with WWB showing future cooling. Of course, it's just 1 model.

How low can we go? Answer: lower than yesterday! Lol Didn't want to steal your "baby" @GaWx, but I couldn't believe how much it dropped.

Today's weekly Eps not only held serve with a trough in the east starting Christmas, but the trough is deeper and temps colder! Normal precip for the last 3 of the 6 week forecast period.

I used to think that was bs, but I can't remember a great winter that didn't have them. So now I'm a believer...he!! it doesn't cost anything either!

12z ain't a win....but 18z is! Lol. Incredible the amount of digital snow we get.

Woke up this morning and thought my porch was on fire with a reading of 137°. Guess I'll need to buy a new thermometer.

Fair enough. I shouldn't think so selfishly.

I was going to post something about the 6z run, but it gets tiresome being in the bullseye at 318 hrs all the time.

One can predict future cooling and warming using the same model guidance used by everyone, you included. See attached. Trades are occurring right now. I haven't predicted any huge or minimal cooling. I'm just pointing out what is actually occurring and what is being predicted in the near future (next 10 days, give or take.) I have a different perspective on this than you. This was supposed to have been +2C or more months ago, so I don't buy all those predictions from failed models and twitter forecasters. Even you admitted the other day it has failed to warm as fast as you predicted. Now, it's finally warmed to what it was supposed to have been months ago, but the problem is one of time as to whether there's enough of it to allow it to reach at least a +2C trimonthly. Maybe it will and maybe it won’t. Either way, it'll be close but won't make a difference weatherwise at this point. So like I said, it's all sport now. But because of the delay in reaching +2C, temps can't afford setbacks, even short term ones, like what the attached show. That's why I post them. If you want to take my posts for anything more than that, that's your decision.

You have been on a mission to prove that this is not going to be a super event for months. Like it’s some boogey man that you’re terrified to see. I don’t think the paranoia lies with me lol You really do take this seriously. That's crazy. But you haven't addressed my point over trades cooling before the next burst. Those are the facts.

Between now and the next burst, you have trades with cooling taking place per attached map. I'm not worried. There's no difference in weather +/- .25C imho and there's nothing we can do about it if there was. I'm just here for the sport of it. Why are you so paranoid about those who disagree with you?

It better for your prog to have any chance because it pales in comparison to the last one as of today.

I wonder if it's all downhill from here.

Porsche looked.

Just don't look at the Gfs. Don't do it.

I don't see how you can reach any such conclusions without looking at the entire Northern Hemisphere, if not the entire globe. Even then, your 2nd point is just your opinion/speculation.

Ssta and "and the associated background thermodynamic conditions." Do you know exactly what they are this year and exactly how they compare to 15/16 because it doesn't state the relative level of impact of Ssta and those "...associated background thermodynamic conditions?"

-.1°