mitchnick

18z Euro now has a stronger trailing vort vs a stronger primary that the 12z had. Too early to say if it will help, but the only way we could get snow would be from the trailing vort.

First time the mean crossed the lower red line so convincingly. Giddy up!

Waiting for Larry's analysis of the Eps 10mb. I have a hunch what he might say.

Anybody think it's gone on the 12z run? Edit: The ocean storm backing in.

Sun about at peak for the solar cycle.

Sw'ly flow ahead of the front killed any chance at an inversion. Closest Wunderground site to me only made it to 28.6.

6z Gefs look alot like the other 2 fwiw.

That was the winter that turned me into a hard core weenie. Mby, 3 miles south of BWI, got 1 inch the whole winter from a frontal passage the first week of 2/73. I remember it vividly because of the scars. Lol Funny that what made it so bad was we had 1 winter storm watch and one ws warning that resulted in no snow, just cirrus. They had a model back then, I think it was the LFM but could be wrong, and it sucked as much as the current ones. Because of that winter, I thought it would never snow again, so I pulled my first all-nighter in 12/73 literally listening all night long to the only album available, Alice Cooper's I'm Eighteen. Snow started around 5:30am allowing me a couple hours of sleep. No 2 winters are alike, so I wouldn't worry about a repeat of that one. I'm sure there are plenty more unique ways to fail fortunately.

Well if that's all we're talking, no need to be concerned over a repeat.

Not saying it's right, but that's what you call a rubber band 10mb pattern.

What pattern period are you referring to when you say "...this pattern so far does look extremely similar to 1994?" Attached are 500mb for 12/1/23-12/10/23 & 12/94. They're nothing alike. I know I've seen it mentioned on this Board in other forums as well. Why do you/others (if you know) say it? Or are you referring to a model prog. If so, which one?

Way too complicated for the models to figure it out at this range, but they all feature the 2 Low scenario. And with the cold air lurking to the north and a deep surface Low or 2, it's something to follow since at 2 out of the 4 models give us snow at this point. Ukie isn't in range yet, except it does give us rain, which really makes me think the Euro operational is out to lunch. Even the Eps drops .75" of rain imby.

Ohhhh, that's the problem...you don't know the difference between facts and lies. The simulated forecast from a computer is a fact. The forecast may end up right or wrong, but the forecast is a fact. Your post that you couldn't pull up the Gfs forecast and that your purpose was to check on model consensus for next week's blizzard was a lie on top of a lie. Now do understand...liar? Why don't you just stop? It's over.

Lol. Have to chalk up Euro run as a wee bit off. Only model that keeps everything, rain included, offshore due to pressing cold front from Canada.

Should have added, Icon IS cold enough.

Euro up next. Let's hope it plays along.

Icon run finished and did what I hoped it would do, which is the only way we get snow coincidentally! Lol The cut off low pulls the surface low back to the NW ala 1/25/00. The run stops after getting snow to us but it would be better if it went out further. At least on the lines of the Canadian imho.

Admittedly, at first glance it may seem like a long shot with 1 system coming through with a trailing trough that amplifies thanks to a strong 1st system. Otoh, that's sorta what brought us snow yesterday with a front/trough that moved through and trailing northern stream energy moving to our south. Go to this link to the Canadian 132 hrs 5h and surface map then move it forward. You'll see what I'm talking about. Icon is similar, so try that too, but it stops before the end of the run for some unknown reason. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023121212&fh=132

No. You're just a liar. First you said you couldn't pull up the Gfs and now you're lying why you lied in the first place. Congrats....you accurately represent people pushing the lies you believe.

Probably because you're too stupid.

Here's a thought....maybe models suck.

Canadian

Hey, Canadian has the threat now too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023121212&fh=168

Dang Icon is stuck at 171 hrs. Love to see how that plays out.

Hey Bliz/93...don't look at the end of the Icon run. Gfs isn't too far off of it either.