mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Like just about all the systems since October, it's a big qpf producer thanks to the Niño. That's probably why I'm not too concerned at this point. Like you said, we seem to be getting breathing room from all directions. Bubbler, I agree a miss to the south is a concern, but it wouldn't be a total miss and ratios would make up for some of the lost qpf. I would be ecstatic with 6-10" plus mix or not after the past 3 years...but I'll gladly take more advertised now by most modeling .
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The setup is a typical to my weenie eyes, but seems to be supported by all modeling, and strongly so by ensembles. Heck, even the Ukie gives most of us 12-15" fwiw lol. Until modeling folds, I'll assume it's a go and not worry about typical rules of thumb.
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Chances of greater than 4" thru 144hrs on 6z Eps increased over 0z run at 150hrs too.
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Yep. Close-up.
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6z has less qpf down south but more into PA...where it counts!
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It's a weaker slp due to weaker 5h vort, but a bit colder and plenty of qpf nonetheless.
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6z Eps snowfall thru end of run 144 hrs. More to come afterwards.
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6z
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6z Euro had lower heights (colder) at the end of its run of 90hrs v 0z at 96. I will be a bit surprised if the 6z Eps, not out completely, isn't cooler by a touch.
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What, no coupons?
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Eps...unbelievable!
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18z Eps ever so slightly improved from 12z. It's a little cooler at 850 and 5H anomalies shows the vort is not quite as deep. Confluence may be a touch better but it's hard to say for certain to these old eyeballs. Anyway, check the run date stamps when comparing because they may not be in the same order as in 12z top and 18z bottom. Sorry.
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Anybody got snow falling? Radar is a lit up. I just checked my forecast and snow is likely, but little or no accumulations. https://radar.weather.gov/station/kccx/standard
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Lol...I forgot to even look at the end of the Gfs run. Sweet!
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Amen!
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Day 9-10 Gefs 18z v 12z. Baby steps
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Snowfall for last 24 hrs of today's Euro 12z forecast. Doesn't inclide next weekend. It is the most agressive model, however, but 18z Gefs is coming in now and it's colder than its 12z run.
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Gefs, in fact, suppresses the slp. Heads almost due east once to VA/NC border. New England gets the shaft.
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Gefs mean never goes into the Ohio Valley with the slp. Much more classic Miller A.
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I'm probably 1500' from the eastern end of Adams County. The difference between the western and eastern ends is incredible sometimes.
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If i could see a redux of the 12/20 event imby, 7"+sleet, I could be very happy especially since I'm not sold on a pure snow event.
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My old homestead is the 2.5" south of Baltimore. Good riddance!
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Bubbler special...congrats!
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The surface High in Canada actually jumps in strength after the storm is already cranking. Incredible.
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Please be close to correct Gfs
