mitchnick

10:1 and Kuchie. Really close to something huge further east.

Yep. A little warmer than 0z. But ok for out west and north of me.

Still primary west but new slp forming in MC at 156hrs. Still gunna be warmish methinks.

At 150hrs, High in Canada in better spot and 1031 v 1027 at 0z.

Same at 144hrs. I'm likihg what I'm seeing so far vs 0z Euro run.

Trough is a little weaker and Canadian high a little stronger at 132hrs

At 123 hrs on Euro, the High over Superior is 1028 v 1025 on 0z run. We'll see if it matters soon enough.

Hate to see the Gfs with the jump north, but that was my concern in the earlier post about seasonal trends. It's not a disaster by any stretch and I'd take it in a heartbeat and be happy. But there's littke to no breathing room imby. Funny how the atmosphere wants to default back to its seasonal ways. That said, that next system is already in the wings with more high pressure in southern Canada than prior runs. That may end up giving us more than we figured with cold now entrenched in Canada.

Fyi, there's been a lot written about the SSW and a possible split of the PV. Don't know if anyone has continued to follow it, but I have and the 6z Gfs operational is now splitting the PV again. It had backed off from showing it after a wave 1 hit, but now has it finally splitting after a second wave hit. This is good if it happens. Gefs aren't on board yet, but they always lag the operational on SSW events due to smoothing.

6z Gfs operational DOES split the pv after a wave 2 hit.

Seems like the best the models can do +7 days is see a potential storm and use a dartboard to place it, so anything is possible on them. Between 3-7 days, where we are now, they start honing in. <3 days is the fine tuning when we all hold our breaths, assuming we're still in the game. As for your location, as is typical with these juicy, Niño systems, the closer to I81 one is, the better. Unless, of course, you get a killer block or 50/50.

I'm a fan of putting much stock into seasonal trends. Our problem is that it is rare for models to sniff out the correct solution 6 or 7 days out, so when you're in the bullseye this far out....uh boy. Most know this I'm sure. But the seasonal trend this year so far isn't comforting to me because this is arguably the first threat after the pattern change and, up to now, so many of the slp's have been inland runners. So in my mind, that 50/50 to develop from 1/4 system holds our future as to whether everything from here is downhill. All of which means, as good as it looks now, don't fall in love with it because it will likely be Wednesday before some reasonable confidence can be had that we will be able to buck the seasonal trend. Just mho.

Needs to stop creeping north...NOWWWW!!!

https://ulmerlaw.com/blog/2022/08/how-to-get-a-cheap-divorce-in-pennsylvania/

Eps looks similar to Geps for the 7th. Still more snow would fall beyond the last panel of the run per qpf maps.

Missed that. Good catch. Maybe it can trend east.

Geps likes the 6/7th too. It should be understood to anyone thinking, what's the big deal about an 1.5"? At this range for an ensemble, that's a strong signal.

It shows 2 shots before a relax/reload. Psuhoffman has a good post how after the reload things will likely get even more interesting.

Gfs goes goofy due to a huge area of cold in Canada pressing south.

Light snow for 1/7. Looks like Gfs wants to send energy out in poeces because there's already another vort gaining steam by the 8th headed east.

1/6-1/7 threat has makings of a monster if it can come together right.

One down, another looks to be out west.

Gfs has 1st January threat approaching on 1/4. Buckle up!

Close miss onnthe Canadian, but in the ballpark at this range. Nice 5H look.

Canadian looking interesting at days 8-10.