mitchnick

I saw that and was pretty bummed it was rain. Then I noticed that pattern/setup at the end of the run and was reminded of the Euro weeklies prog. Shame it'll all be gone in 6 hrs.

Must be a warm layer from overnight inversion because there's some sleet mixed in. But all roofs and mulch lightly covered...whoohoo, a legit trace!

Models were pretty decent with this.

Looks like a little bit of snow on the rooftops here, but nothing special.

0z was similar, but most of it thru 384 hrs comes Sunday night into Monday and the 0z Euro has backed down with that threat...a lot in most places unfortunately. Blip? I dunno. But Eps backed down some too and Geps is as impressed with it as Taylor Swift would be with my physique. But I find her nauseating, so we're even. Plenty of time, but these kinds of events are truly thread the needle, so we're going to have to wait until the weekend for any kind of certainty regardless of ensembles imho.

It can change fast, but the Cfs' latest run is seeing the light for January and February.

Which happens to be during the "weeniest" week on the current weeklies coincidentally.

Nice. I graduated from Mt. St. Joe in Baltimore, so it was an obvious choice. We used to be parishioners there, but then I went into Annunciation in McSherrystown 2 years ago and couldn't imagine going back to St. Joe's. It's an absolutely beautiful church. Unfortunately, they started a capital campaign and we just came from one at our old church in MD. Lol

Nah, they're nice. My grankids go to St. Joe's, so I've been on that road a lot over the past 4 years. I can even say I remember when that property on the south side of Grandview was a farm. lol

What's your elevation there? It's pretty much all 700-900' around Parkville. My daughter is right off Grandview on the east side of 94 and she's at 750'. I'm at 600', and she's been all snow a few times over the past few years when I've been a mix.

Didn't know you were so close because the mobile view doesn't show location. Those pics were taken on the way back from the top of Pigeon Hills. When it snows, why no cheat and go higher! Lol

You're upstream from me, so that makes sense. Although they're making it to mby, they are drying up some.

On and off snow showers continue here surprisingly. Here are a couple of pics. Don't know how to convert from download only. 20231206_102529.heic 20231206_102527.heic 20231206_102526.heic

Needless to say, there have been a few upgrades with the Euro suite (and other modeling), data ingestion, etc. in the past 8 years. I don't know what looking at past modeling does. But if we're going to look, here's a few seasonal forecasts from the Euro off the 9/09 run. Unfortunately, the free data back then was paultry, so all I have are the temp forecasts. Pretty good forecast.

Cfs, but it was premature.

Hmmm...legit light snow now and radar has more, if not, better returns headed this way. More than I expected, and there aren't any bigger weenies than me!

6z Eps supports the threat too. Yaaaayyyy....snow threat on 2 consecutive Eps runs. Actually, a bit better on 6z run too.

Random flakes falling.

You can get the last 7 days here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202311280000

I posted a few days ago that temps would be dropping and you doubted me to put it lightly. But they dropped. If you look at the modeling over the past 5-7 days (Euro, Gfs and Cfs), they haven't been consistently getting stronger with the WWB. There's been a lot of up and down with no real consensus. So I don't know if your claim it's getting stronger is from posters or modeling, but I wouldn't characterize it as strengthening at this point. Also, it seems a good bit of the westerly anomalies are west of the dateline and the WWB's this fall that were similar failed to warm as progged or advertized by Twitter posters you linked or modeling. There's still time for it to get its act together and boost temps more to your liking, so there's that I suppose.

Euro Seasonal https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58841-el-nino-2023-2024/?do=findComment&comment=7071624

Studies done by people like minded with you? No, I know what a study looks like when the conclusion was written before the study was conducted The fact is, all your post demonstrated was that ensemble forecasts at long leads are inaccurate and poorly forecast intensity of forcing. You want to turn it into something more. I'm done.

I expected something better than your typical response.

Thanks for not responding to any of my points.