mitchnick

Well if that's all we're talking, no need to be concerned over a repeat.

Not saying it's right, but that's what you call a rubber band 10mb pattern.

What pattern period are you referring to when you say "...this pattern so far does look extremely similar to 1994?" Attached are 500mb for 12/1/23-12/10/23 & 12/94. They're nothing alike. I know I've seen it mentioned on this Board in other forums as well. Why do you/others (if you know) say it? Or are you referring to a model prog. If so, which one?

Way too complicated for the models to figure it out at this range, but they all feature the 2 Low scenario. And with the cold air lurking to the north and a deep surface Low or 2, it's something to follow since at 2 out of the 4 models give us snow at this point. Ukie isn't in range yet, except it does give us rain, which really makes me think the Euro operational is out to lunch. Even the Eps drops .75" of rain imby.

Ohhhh, that's the problem...you don't know the difference between facts and lies. The simulated forecast from a computer is a fact. The forecast may end up right or wrong, but the forecast is a fact. Your post that you couldn't pull up the Gfs forecast and that your purpose was to check on model consensus for next week's blizzard was a lie on top of a lie. Now do understand...liar? Why don't you just stop? It's over.

Lol. Have to chalk up Euro run as a wee bit off. Only model that keeps everything, rain included, offshore due to pressing cold front from Canada.

Should have added, Icon IS cold enough.

Euro up next. Let's hope it plays along.

Icon run finished and did what I hoped it would do, which is the only way we get snow coincidentally! Lol The cut off low pulls the surface low back to the NW ala 1/25/00. The run stops after getting snow to us but it would be better if it went out further. At least on the lines of the Canadian imho.

Admittedly, at first glance it may seem like a long shot with 1 system coming through with a trailing trough that amplifies thanks to a strong 1st system. Otoh, that's sorta what brought us snow yesterday with a front/trough that moved through and trailing northern stream energy moving to our south. Go to this link to the Canadian 132 hrs 5h and surface map then move it forward. You'll see what I'm talking about. Icon is similar, so try that too, but it stops before the end of the run for some unknown reason. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023121212&fh=132

No. You're just a liar. First you said you couldn't pull up the Gfs and now you're lying why you lied in the first place. Congrats....you accurately represent people pushing the lies you believe.

Probably because you're too stupid.

Here's a thought....maybe models suck.

Canadian

Hey, Canadian has the threat now too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023121212&fh=168

Dang Icon is stuck at 171 hrs. Love to see how that plays out.

Hey Bliz/93...don't look at the end of the Icon run. Gfs isn't too far off of it either.

That's good. Gawx, I believe, did a post last week showing the MJO in the COD results in cold in the east.

First time the mean dropped below the bottom red line. Per the explanation on the link: " During a SSW event, the ensemble (blue) will be close to the lower (more negative) extreme of the model extended range climate (ER-M-climate) (lower red line)." Here's the link if you don't have it. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202312110000

Those are Gfs forecasts. Yesterday's Eps pretty much has it falling apart (almost.) I am posting the link instead of a pic because at the link you can look back at the prior 6 days of Eps forcasts. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes?base_time=202312100000&filter=no&parameter=zonal wind 850 hPa

I've seen snow fall imby 3 days out of the last 7, one with an inch+, anotheŕ with a tenth or 2, and the other decent flurries. This week through Sunday per NWS is at or a little below normal with highs from the low to upper 40's and lows from the lower to upper 20's. I haven't looked at the days before Christmas, but I trust your analysis. When I step out of my whinny, weenie shoes, I would think this is feeling like a normal winter between now and Christmas.

Storm radar starting around 7pm, but moves ahead the longer you wait to see it of course. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-200-100-usa-rad

Looks like we wait until January unless we sneak something in during the last week of the month. It is what it is.

Ditto here.

This looks good, but would have been great a few degrees colder.