mitchnick

Enjoy!

Don't forget to duck if you hear gunfire.

.2" so far w/-rn

I went purely on the ensemble means with my thoughts and didn't look at any of the members. With the ensembles just averaging things out, some members could have shown that scenario and others the warmer one with an average in the upper 60's. I will say that all 3 ensembles seem bent on averaging on the cooler side down the road, typical for strong Niño Octobers. In fact, the 6z operational GFS has a serious cold shot at the end of the run fwiw. So I guess I would roll the dice at this point and go with 60's max.

Well, if the Pacific warming is man-made, it won't cool anytime in the near future. We'll know soon enough.

I don't believe you/he are correct. The model he posted for the 850 anomalies is the Gfs showing anomalies from July 8 to October 6. I've attached today's Gfs forecast starting today that includes part of his plot as well. The westerlies are replaced by easterlies starting tomorrow!

I agree, it'll be close. To be honest, I'm not familiar with MDT climo. But I was thinking more our back yards. So I could see MDT with its lower elevation and sitting in an urban environment hitting 70 and us staying in the upper 60's.

While I agree that the next couple weeks (sorry Bubbler ) may not reach 70, I have little doubt that we will see 70 before spring as Niños are famous for impressive warm-ups, especially strong ones.

Yeah, well, I don't buy that. I have some real problems with everybody thinking weather models of one sort or another, are correct. I'll stop right there to avoid any further debate as I understand others may disagree.

Ughhh. Was supposed to finish the tile in my bathroom then mow the lawn this morning before the rain hit. Wouldn't you know it. A few renegade showers ahead of the front have come through. I hate mowing wet grass but wth, I'm doing it.

You said: "The new findings shed light on the factors conducive to escalating extreme La Niña in a future warming world. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse impacts on communities around the globe, if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific." But doesn't that presuppose that Niñas aren't, in fact, causing/participating in feeding the warming? And if the warming western Pacific is the likely cause for multi-year Niñas, what evidence, if you know, is the cause of the warming?

I'm sure we'll still see a few days AN, but averaging at or below. Still not feeling the 70's next week based on the ensembles. If I was a gentleman, I'd bet you. But alas, I am not.

My guess is that October looks much like September with a 4 day heat wave (of sorts) that results in a near normal average month in an otherwise below normal/normal regime.

81 imby

Updated thru 9/30. Subsurface cooling continues.

I'm betting the ensembles are closer to reality, but time will tell. Ensembles have been looking like that for a few days, which makes me think they're closer to right than wrong. As for the operationals, I don't even consider the Gfs for surface temps. But it's not that bad otherwise.

I think you and maybe me see highs in the upper 50's; areas to my north and west too. Even my NWS forecast for Sunday & Monday have highs of 59 and 57. After that, all 3 ensembles look to me to be under 70 all next week. Those are 5 day periods on those maps.

You miss the point. Chesaco said temps across his area were normal to below average in his COUNTY except for 1 location. You then start puling figures from locations 50-75+ miles away from Chester County with different elevations and proximity to large bodies of water. But he wasn't talking about any areas outside Chester County. But it gets worse. You obviously feel irresistibly compelled to dispute his statement of normal to a little below. So you change the discussion to median. Why? It's obvious to me. You're disseminating mundane information in a dramatic fashion to try to make it appear warmer than it really was. If your opinion is so correct, then you don't need to make things look warmer/dire. It was an average September temp-wise in Chester County, PA. Period! Can't it ever be that simple?

Way above normal? Harrisburg was +1.3 Hagerstown was +.1 Baltimore was +2.7 Philly was +1.5 Wilmington was +.5 Reading was +1.6 Those are nbd AN temps. He's close to Allentown. Closer than Bwi. So why didn't you pick that one???? Oh, I see, it was -.5. EDIT: I forgot to mention, there was 1 anomolous heat wave of 4 days. The rest of the month in all locations was BN on average.

Just don't bend over to pet the goat.

I was just bustin' your chops. Ashamed you wasted a post on it. They credit you 1 extra.

And to sum it all up in 4 words: "Paul Roundy says so"?

The consequences of the extra blocking shows up in the precip forecast.

Entire new run out on TT now. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023100100&fh=0