mitchnick

Note as well all the ensemble members that fall off a cliff later in the period on the weeklies. A surprising number of the litetally off the chart weak while there are no members off the chart strong like those weak.

1.1" looking in my cheap rain gauge. Models did pretty well until the last minute coming in around .75". Thursday and Friday they were in the 1-1.25" range.

Should have come. One more deviant won't hurt.

Nice line pressing east and it doesn't seem to be weakening coming over the mountains.

Cfs finally sniffing out a jump in 3 and 3.4. I use the seasonal prog instead of monthly because it's far less jumpy.

Bubbler, you got your 70's at MDT yesterday. Mby yard max was 66.6 and THV was 69. Air was dry and that, along with few clouds, allowed temps to jump.

It's in a little low spot right on rt. 30. The aircraft fly right over 30 and low. Helicopters take off a couple hundred feet from the road. It's always been a cold spot. I remember when I lived 2 miles north of BWI how incredibly colder it was than BWI on clear, cold nights. I'm now only about 12 or 13 miles away from it as the crow flies and have only been lower a handfull of times in the last 4 years.

From his postings attached in this forum, I doubt he would say that this Nino has progressed as he thought it would 2 months ago.

9/23 update had months 11/23-3/24 anomalies at 2.4, 2.7, 2.9, 2.7, 2.3. 2 weeks later with today's update those numbers are 2.0, 2.2, 2.5, 2.5, 2.2.

You need to learn how to read spouses. Just replace "they" with "you."

@GaWx Cfs updated October. Slight change from 20 days ago. Had the right area for the coolest temps I suppose.

Cfs updated 850 October forecast. Better late than never.

More Ukmet seasonal forecast. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob-skill

UKMET updated https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59041-2023-2024-winterenso-disco/?do=findComment&comment=7025659

I was in my 3rd year at UMBC. It was very elevation dependent. If you/anyone is familiar with the UMBC campus, there is a loop around the campus with the west side the first hill of any elevation on the piedmont, with east being the coastal plain. This wx d*ck cut classes to go up to the top of loop to watch it snow and accumulate some vs go to class at the bottom of the hill and watch wet snow and rain fall. But there is a song written about me, so I've got that going for me.

41.5 for the low in the hamlet of Hanover.

Nino 4 has been cooling off lately: When in the fall/winter does it have to reach that temp which gives the warm signal and for how many months?

Still getting rapid cooling around Japan and overall cooling of the Pacific between California and Japan.

Glad you brought it up. Gfs has been showing a Wave 1 hit on the PV for several days. This is from the 6z run.

Let me say, there really was a noticeable difference as soon as it was done. Probably because of the lousy insulation job in the first place and a 2nd half azzed attempt the homeowner did after construction.

I went with Carroll Insulation in Westminster. They and 1 other place seemed reputable and dependable of all the places I cojtacted. The other place just does foam instead of loose fill and that wouldn't work for my place. Carroll is a regional company if not nationwide. It was 3k. It's based on square footage. I had them do the attic over the main part of the house and over the master br, which is over the garage. It would have been cheaper if I had them keep the old Insulation and just blow in insulation over it. But air infiltration is actually a big culprit for heat loss and this house being built in 78 has a lot of crevices, so I figured wth, I'll never do it again. Tax credit of 20% if you get it done this year, but I'm sure they raise prices to take advantage of it. Lol

46 here, but that was brief. Clouds came in and held it at 47 for most of the night. No heat on in the house yet this morning or this year however. Toasty 67 now. In January I had the old cr@p insulation in the attic removed, had them seal all openings and cracks with foam, then blew in R48. That along with replacement windows I installed 2 years ago, insulating my basement ductwork and other sealing and insulation around the house in my spare time (which is every day now lol), and this house is tight. Just a shame I have oil heat, but I'm pricing gas and heat pumps now.

61.9 is current and our max. You've had more sun, which may explain it. I wouldn't mind seeing this Euro day 10 map show up on a regular basis this winter.

.3" total qpf. Another underperformer. Hopefully, the overperformers start showing up in December.

Oh, the Starlight is worth the wait! Spoken like an old kogger. Lol