
mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Yeah but...
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I don't read X, but does this guy make an actual forecasts at range, or does he just throw out "possible extreme outcomes" he never technically predicts? I've never seen anything he's posted that strays far from that schtick which is why I ask.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
A week ago I would have been disgusted by that, but my attitude has changed after 2.5" of rain with another 1" possible. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Nam now joining the Canadian with appreciable rain Friday into Saturday. Nam is >1" while Canadian at 12z is just under and inch. This does favor east over west at this point. Icon says they're both nuts. -
I wish I could see the amount of foam pouring out of Snowman's mouth right now.
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First 2 Niños I was old enough to be a weenie and experience were 77/78 & 82/83. Boy did they ever skew my expectations for Niños. Lol Both had decent Decembers in the Mid Atlantic
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Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Fwiw, total was 2.2". Heavy drizzle has resumed. -
Winter 2023-2024
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Sorry. I was cleaning out my attachments and deleted a few too many recent ones. Anyway, here's the link. You can get more info than what I originally posted. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html -
Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Finally an event this year that performed as advertised. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
2" on the dot 5 minutes ago with lt rain continuing. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Starting to see that sought after wintertime pivot in the radar echoes, with areas north of Westminster, MD in the jackpot zone. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Center looks to be cutting ENE now from southern MD as rain is starting to fill in again around Baltimore. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DOX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad -
Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
6z Euro as well as other guidance has Ophelia's center passing to our SE so we'll stay under the NW precip field most of the day. It's become your typical inland runner at this point with much needed rain. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Raining steady. From a distance, it looks like 1.5"+ in the gauge. Precse measurement when I feel like getting wet. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Bwi just over an inch. High likelihood they'll make 2" at this rate imho, which is in line with progs. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html -
Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
12z Euro total qpf. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Icon is pretty close and that explains its precip field. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It'll fill in as the center moves north. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=AKQ-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad .7" so far imby. -
From a purely MA winter perspective, I don't care where the ONI peaks at so long as the MEI can reach a mod to strong level.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
+.5" with steady lt/mod rain -
I don't think you can use a 5 day 5h anomaly forecast at the end of the model's range to prove October will turn out differently from a previous October. The model could be wrong or even if correct, it's pure luck that 5 days out of 31 will accurately depict the entire month.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
What site is that....gotta link? Tia -
And it's going nowhere until they kill the beast.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Godspeed! It's actually sad what has happened to Baltimore's Inner Harbor. When I was in law school back in the early 80's, the place was packed on weekends, a real party atmosphere. It was a great place to go with plenty of bars and safe. Sure, an occasional mugging, but there were lots of cops around and they tried hard to keep it that way. Now, I would be reluctant to go there during the daytime hours, but that's me. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
mitchnick replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Getting angry now. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam/