MDstorm

KA and Tenman Johnson winter outlooks due about now. Always an interesting kick-off to the upcoming winter season. MDstorm

Yup. We are not suckers. We won't count the 50 + pages of posts in this thread devoted to Flo.

Partly cloudy with a chance of hurricane conditions. MDstorm

As Scraff pointed out, the Op Euro introduces a new twist into the mix. Has Florence moving Northwesterly towards Wilmington, NC. Just at landfall there, the brakes are applied and Florence actually moves slightly south of west across South Carolina into Georgia and then moves northward up into Kentucky. Obviously, it really strengthens the ridge. MDstorm

Would have to come further north than that for much of an effect up here (southwest VA would still get hit hard, though).

Euro back to a Myrtle Beach landfall. From there into western NC. Never makes it north of NC/VA border.

Euro ensemble: wagons south.

0Z Euro----landfall between Charleston and Myrtle Beach. Then a NW to north track to our west (further west than last night's run). Heaviest rains in our forum would be in Southwest VA. From Winchester on eastward, would be nothing too exciting. Euro fairly consistent for 3 runs in a row. Looking like too much of a good thing with that ridge as guidance is starting to point to a more southern landfall and then a more inland track---not good if you are wanting to see impacts up this way. We will see if the projected ridging weakens any over the next 48 hours. This precip map gives you an idea of the projected path of Flo. MDstorm

0Z Euro: Myrtle Beach hit. Then NW...NNW...N through central NC/west-central VA/eastern WV. With that track, many on this forum would see appreciable rain and some breezes (esp west of DC). MDstorm

The new and "improved" (lol) FV3-GFS as has already been pointed out is not off to a great start accuracy wise. Here is the run of the model just 36 hours before the start of the event.

Congratulations on the blessed event, PSU! Thankfully for your new daughter, there must have been a stretch of boring weather about 9 months ago. MDstorm

That matches those epic Euro runs from a few days ago.

Oh, goodie. Maybe this can evolve into a Boxing Day type event.

Just another episode of Charlie Brown featuring Lucy and a football.

The pattern of distribution of snow on the Euro is not all that different from last night's epic run. However, obviously the amount of snow/precip is much less tonight. I think the Euro needs an upgrade to fix its last upgrade. MDstorm