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About poolz1

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  • Location:
    Boonsboro, MD

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  1. That amount was my thought exactly. 4-5" qpf. Some of the factors that give us our biggest totals are a hindrance to Sierra style snows. We need a constant moisture fetch but too long of a duration will usually wreck the mids resulting in epic meltdowns. Occlusion will happen at some point and shut down the death band. A lack of significant orographic lift if we are talking just around 95. No other body of water to offer additional enhancement.
  2. poolz1

    Winter 2021-22

    It does...but I guess the positive takeaway, imo, is it shows a good signal for a progressive mjo. Hence, windows of opportunity. Not a lot of great signals in general for this winter. Im just looking for signs of something that will buck the system (best case scenario) or at least a sign that the classic nina pattern could have interruptions. I have no clue and no expectations.
  3. poolz1

    Winter 2021-22

    Interesting thread regarding the MJO. If something similar plays out this winter we should at least see windows of opportunity.
  4. 2.86" Yesterday evening felt just like a tropical system heading north to the west of us. Muggy, clouds racing out of the SSE, wind would pick up with any mod/hvy downpour...etc.
  5. Not sure if this one has been posted? It is one of the wildest videos I have seen....sound up! The view of the exiting tornado after the home owner comes upstairs is just surreal.
  6. Just absolutely torrential for the past hour. Zero wind... Just a still, humid, tropical downpour. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  7. I would think the Potomac is going to have one heck of a crest. Forecast is already for major flood stage through the Washington Co gauges and 26'+ at Point of Rocks.
  8. I'll be home in case the creek decides to encroach on us so.....more like Miller time.
  9. Ahhh...my bad. Yes, seeing a 3"+ Pwat print out was the point of my post. No too often seen in these parts. Effective tropical rainers...
  10. I didnt assume. At least according to the euro...that frame is pretty much areawide precip.
  11. 3"+ in spots when the center is passing by...torrential. Also noticed that the euro is slower to get out of here and has a similar evolution as the ICON. GFS is the most progressive in the bunch now.
  12. We are not the bullseye on the models but its a razor's edge....especially for N MD. There is likely to be additional qpf maxes locally. Look at what the models were printing out for Henri. Western CT --> NYC bullseye...in reality, NYC --> C NJ. With the center passing through our area I would not write off significant impacts just yet.
  13. Me too...I really thought it would be down by now. I just saw a cooler float by and then get plucked out of the water by the wind. It shot off frame like a bullet.
  14. Insanity! https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress2.html
  15. Its a good start.... An expansive area of torrential tropical rains with embedded sever would be ideal. Lets move this a little south and see some oranges popping up.
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