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About poolz1

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Boonsboro, MD

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  1. IF the GEFS and EPS are correct in the 12-15 it sure looks like things are primed. Jet is getting ready to cut under the HL blocking and connect to the ATL trough. Maybe a very classic ATL look in toward the end of the month? All speculation of course based on LR ens...so there's that. Not that things are boring right now but man if we can get a progression like that this place will be rocking.
  2. The gfs has been steadfast with the D9-10. The op is going to play its usual games but the main players are there every run. This run it decided to put a piece of the TPV under the block and wreck things....
  3. Right in the slot (insert Micheal Scott joke)
  4. Agreed Loseto. This is our long track once blocking gets established.
  5. Have a few mangled flakes mixing in here just to your west....38
  6. GEFS def liking this period (D10-12) more than 12z. Not bad...
  7. 850's making their way into C MD...925's very close behind. 44 right now after a high of 53.
  8. After a very slow but steady temp rise from this morning...finally seeing a steady drop now. Lost 2 degrees in the past 30 min. Got a ways to go...currently 51
  9. No doubt about that. There are a ton of great posters all over American but this thread is packed with great insights. You dont have to sift through 50 memory lane posts about a storm in 1967...lol
  10. I dont disagree that we may have a milder stretch coming up but the last 30 days have been below normal east of the MIss river. Fairly persistent since Nov turned colder. We just had this same discussion a week ago when models were showing a crap pattern in the 10-15 and then the EPO ridge started showing up and now we are tracking an event. Models will waffle with the MJO passing through the COD and remain volatile in the LR, imo. The PV strengthening over the pole is a concern but an MJO that pushes into another 8/1/2 progression, combined with the background state we have already experienced I still think things look positive for later in Dec. If anything...it's not an uninteresting season so far. No consensus is kind of nice after last year....
  11. It seems that models are waffling on how much energy is pulled out of the southern piece. Slight changes are the dif between snow tv, coating-2" or a nice 2-4/3-6... To add to PSU's post above....
  12. @frd Things definitely look to be shifting around. The stagnant +heights and +temp anoms at 50mb over N Canada looks to get shoved east. I really have no idea what to expect but check this out...certainly fantasy range but the FV3 has been hinting at a new warming at the end of the run. Looks to originate in Northern Africa...same place this current warming started. Wait and see if it has legs.
  13. Both the GEFS and GEPS have the Aleutian low in a nice position to push that western trough east. Looks similar to the progression we have seen several times this season. I do like that we are seeing these looks with the MJO fading into the COD after a phase 3/4. Right now at least, the progression looks to be heading for 7/8 as we near the holidays.
  14. Destined to change, waffle and morph but the uptick compared to 12z is notable.