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About poolz1

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    Boonsboro, MD

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  1. CAPE's epo ridge going strong on the LR GEFS..... Time to go fill up on carbs!
  2. Obviously, every hour into the future a model runs the less skill it has. 15 day ens runs are good for general ideas, imo. Just like snow means, and members...useful if used correctly. No doubt though, beyond day 10 is the general ballpark range...which is why I said I'd like to see it move forward in time....
  3. End of the GEFS run looks mighty tasty.. Hoping to see that look move forward in time....Lets get some decent cold into the pattern so we can have our own digital historic storms.
  4. Nice to see the ops showing a shuffle in the LR....certainly looking more likely we see a nice west coast ridge. Could go poof in the next few runs like we have seen so many times but if its gonna happen the ops should be picking up on it. 12z gfs continues this idea...just a different interpretation each run.
  5. BWI: 17.5" DCA: 11" IAD: 20.5" RIC: 5.5" SBY: 11"
  6. A product of a +PNA after a several weeks long stint of any cold source being choked off....need some EPO help. Both the GEFS and CFS show a weakening of the SPV around the 20th of Dec. Granted, this predicted weakening is just more of comedown off its high and more toward the ERA5 mean but a weakening nonetheless. The idea of a developing PNA and then more importantly -EPO would make sense in order to start throwing some jabs at the PV.
  7. Hit 22 for a low but it was 32 when I left the house at 530 this morning.
  8. Flurries, 34 with a stiff breeze. Definitely a wintry feel outside...
  9. There we go! Getting very dark to the west..wind is kicking..
  10. 1.36" so far here. Muggy tropical feel this afternoon with several torrential downpours.
  11. I saw a D10 -NAO start to show up....beautiful 50/50. But yea, the entire NH sucks other than that little straw grasping tidbit.
  12. Maybe some small glimmers of hope on the ATL side as we get later in Nov but the Pac crap looks pretty darn stable. There does seem to be agreement with a fairly stable 50/50ish low in the LR. Cant imagine the 35 day GEFS have much use but when every member shows a very strong PV you have to think its on to something. CFSv2 shows much more spread but certainly leans in the GEFS direction.
  13. Lol... Looks like I caught a shot of the first burst just south of Fred Co.
  14. The Mothership has arrived! I'm not a big cloud Guru but this was pretty impressive. Only cloud in the sky at the moment. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  15. Scattered flurries. 36 Looks like another batch on radar slipping SW of HGR.