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About WxMan1

  • Birthday 07/27/1970

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  • Location:
    Crofton, MD
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    Sports and Weather (not necessarily in that order)...the news can wait! :)

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  1. ...and this is what so many ensembles were showing. We talked about this at work last night -- fits the upper pattern.
  2. Which the upper pattern would support. The longer this thing takes to reach the Florida peninsula, considering the ridge to the north was not that anomalous to begin with, the more likely it will curve up the FL peninsula coast before making landfall. Let's see if we get more operational and ensemble members trending in such direction.
  3. Ripping fatties here in east Crofton. Gonna reach 4" soon.
  4. Still ripping rimed aggregate flakes here in east Crofton. Solid 3+ total now.
  5. Nearing 3" in Crofton. Still ripping, though the snow is definitely riming. No pingers yet.
  6. A little over 2" in Crofton when I measured about a half hour ago. Thinking we might get past 3" before the flip. I'm not gonna complain, because this area overachied with the 9-10" on Jan 13th. Hope central MD folks blow past 6 before the flip!
  7. Yes, but not very good dendrites before the flip to sleet according to the Ferrier or rime corrected SLR per the NAM3. I'm hoping we're closer to the 2-3" bar I've set for our BY, which is on the 10-1 NAM3 map, vs. the 1-ish inch per the NAM3 Ferrier. The Ferrier has consistently been 1 maybe 2 inches for the I-95 corridor. Now it's barely 1" (2nd and 3rd from the bottom blue colors). Hoping it's more of a QPF issue, but as you said, with 0.27" by 15Z, that tells me we've got a) riming problems (less than a 10-1 ratio) and/or b) a quicker transition to a snow-sleet mix (way less than 10-1).
  8. Yep. Check out the 18Z NAM3 Ferrier-based SLR snowmap through 16Z -- lots of 2-3" totals -- some near 4" -- here before the flip to sleet for most in the urban corridor.
  9. I know I'm biased since I work there, but one thing I like to look at is the trend in the WPC probabilistic guidance. What looked like a bar of 4" here in the urban corridor from yesterday's PWPF is now closer to 2-3". 4-6" here in central-northern AA feels like a pipe dream. If this were deal or no deal, I'd sign up for 4" right now, but instinctively I think 2-3" would be more realistic. In fact, I think there's a better chance of 1-2" of snow before sleet here than 3-4". Hope I'm wrong.
  10. It still very much feels like a 2-4" thump for most before a layer of sleet and a coating of ice for us along the urban corridor. Hoping for closer to 4" with the snow IMBY, but I have a feeling it'll be closer to 2-3" before the flip.
  11. 12Z NAM3 continues to be underwhelming with the QPF prior to the changeover (~17Z). Generally .15-.20" liquid equivalent. I trust these Ferrier-based SLRs implicitly when riming snow and eventual ptype issues arise, but I still think the continued 1-2" general area-wide average for the cities and I95 corridor through 17Z is lacking with the QPF. I hope so, anyway.
  12. Yep. In line with the Ferrier-based SLR snow map from the 18Z NAM3. Though I think if the precip isn't as lackluster prior to 16-17Z as the NAM3 suggests, most of us can get closer to 4" (or more) of snow vs. 2".
  13. Well, all I can say is I hope this is the absolute lowest amount of snow possible. It's the Ferrier-based SLR snow map from the 18Z NAM3, which would factor in ptype transition and thus a reduction in SLR. Think (hope?) this is a bit too much of a reduction, but it does give some pause to some of the clown maps out there that are probably overly optimistic with the high end amounts.
  14. Latest WPC probs, (00Z based, though they do not include any of the 18Z guidance, including GEFS, not the 12Z EC ensembles). First is the 50th percentile (most likely) snow accumulation, then freezing rain. Might be a touch underdone on the fzra along the I95 corridor. Also notice how quickly those snow probs go down after 4", especially east.