southmdwatcher
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About southmdwatcher
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- Birthday 06/27/1967
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Maybe the rain and associated coastal low will move through quicker than expected and allow for good rain tonight and earlier clearing tomorrow? Earlier timing is common with systems.
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0.47" today, earlier we had some steady rain, now we have steady drizzle even without radar returns overhead.
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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
We will not have the benefit of good shear for this event, but keep in mind that one of Virginia's best tornado events occurred in August 1993 and was not a tropical induced event.- 2,546 replies
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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
We have had decent mid level lapse rates(around or just above 7 C/km) for the morning and early afternoon, not enough shear today. -
2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0315.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 315 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Western and Central Maryland Southeast Ohio Northern Virginia West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the watch area, spreading eastward through the afternoon. The strongest cells in this region will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Charleston WV to 30 miles north northeast of Patuxent River MD. -
2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Spotter reported tornado over/near Massaponax as per latest warning update -
2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Today seems to be a discrete storm mode, question for us will be if that can occur tomorrow and hold on for an evening Bay breeze or low level jet? -
2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
North of Baltimore, and northeastward through Philadelphia to central NJ could have quite a rough evening. Storm mode looks to stay discrete as storms continue to move east southeast towards the areas of best parameters as the day/evening progresses. Tomorrow could be quite a rough day in our area. -
2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
6z 3kNAM shows scattered severe storms rolling through our region between 18z and 21z. 9z HRRR run shows similar scenario with more storms. 10z HRRR run was much more quiet. The MCS is in western Ohio and southern Indiana, We should see some decent storms later today. -
2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I am in Alexandria and the sun is trying to break through here right now as well. -
2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
74 degrees and breaks of good sun coming north.from Charles County -
2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
6Z 3km NAM shows the strongest 850mb winds are running through VA later this afternoon. CAPE of 1000-1500 runs Fredericksburg and then southward. -
2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
We shall see what SPC and Sterling have to say over the next few hours. The lapse rates over us now are quite strong. That will move out as we head towards morning. The sun will definitely be out for some period of time tomorrow, just a matter of how long and whether a new batch of prefrontal storms breaks out and squashes any substantial buildup of instability. The timing of the event across AL/MS is slightly quicker than was expected. That throws wrinkles into our forecast tomorrow. -
2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
That was from 15Z run of SREF, this is 21Z- 2,546 replies
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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
southmdwatcher replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Day 3 Slight with Enhanced off to the south.
