southmdwatcher

Just warned....winds are strong here in southern St. Charles

Ummm there are some couplets in southern Charles County on TDCA and TADW.....none are warned

Looks like we are getting more unstable than those early morning outlooks forecasted. The sun is breaking through in Alexandria as well.

That is a very large 5% Tornado risk area

1.39" for the event, and 5.57" for October. Nice recovery from the dry Summer.

0.46" since 8am and 0.85" total so far. Moderate rain continues.

Already seems like an overperformer, 0.39" so far, with much more incoming on radar. NWS Sterling updated forecast at 430am was for half to 3/4 inch of rain for my location.

1.59" today

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/071735.shtml Hurricane Dorian Special Discussion Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 This special advisory is being issued instead of the normal intermediate advisory to update the intensity and wind radii of Dorian. A recent ASCAT-B overpass shows a large area of hurricane- force winds southwest and south of the center of Dorian, with many vectors of 80 kt or more. This area of wind is likely due to baroclinic effects during the ongoing extratropical transition. The initial intensity is being increased to 85 kt and the 12-h intensity to 75 kt, after which the forecast intensities are the same as in the previous advisory. Some changes were also made to the initial and 12-h wind radii based on the scatterometer data. There is no change to the forecast track from the previous advisory.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/071734.shtml BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Special Advisory Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS STRONGER THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.. . ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC... INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.8N 64.9W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF EASTPORT MAINE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

Our region is upgraded to Slight Risk

PD1 was and is, to this day my all time favorite storm as well, living here in southern MD. Schools closed for a week, snow packed engine blocks, drifts up to the 2nd story and total whiteout conditions for hours.

SPC day 2 did upgrade to Slight risk for a very small corridor. HGR down to DCA east/northeastward to central NJ

DCA hit 99/72 at 135, 145 and 150pm

Yeah, those storms are falling apart pretty rapidly now.