southmdwatcher

GFS 18z run is way north for Irma....whoa...very bad news for east Coast, great news for the Islands and maybe Florida.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ216&warncounty=TXC361&firewxzone=TXZ216&local_place1=4 Miles N Orangefield TX&product1=Flash+Flood+Warning&lat=30.0951&lon=-93.8889#.WaYcIbpFxPY Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 844 PM CDT TUE AUG 29 2017 TXC199-241-245-351-361-300315- /O.CON.KLCH.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-170830T0315Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Jefferson TX-Newton TX-Hardin TX-Orange TX-Jasper TX- 844 PM CDT TUE AUG 29 2017 ...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE and HARDIN COUNTIES... ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON...HARDIN...ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES... At 833 PM CDT, Doppler radar continued to indicate a nearly stationary area of heavy rains impacting the warned area. Widespread flooding is already occurring. High resolution forecast guidance indicates another 10 to 15 inches of rain is possible over the remainder of the night. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Some locations that will experience flooding include... Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Lumberton, Vidor, Bridge City, Silsbee, West Orange, Kountze, Sour Lake, Nome, Deweyville, Evadale, Central Gardens, Sabine Pass, Thicket and Saratoga.

Ammonia nitrate supposedly but according to the article below many chemicals. http://www.khou.com/weather/harvey/crosby-chemical-plant-at-risk-of-fire-explosion/469003777 The plant’s chemical inventory includes acetone, benzoyl chloride, chlorodifluromethane, cumene, cumene hydroperpoxide, DI(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate, ethybenzene, ethylene glycol, hydrochloric acid, mercury, methyl ethylketone, n-hexane, sodium hydroxide, sodium sulfate, sulfuric acid and butyl alcohol

Another 0.4" since 8am, storm total 1.56"

1.16" here and still raining moderately.

The heavy rain band enveloping the east side of Galveston Bay looks like it will certainly build west into Houston, areas south of that are getting hammered now. Bad night coming for many. Just remains to be seen how far north and west.

Definitely new cells in a south to north feeder band line are forming just west of this band, to the south and west of Houston. Dangerous situation possibly upcoming.

Allison did not have strong onshore winds and a storm surge to block the freshwater runoff, from the tremendous rains that Allison did cause.

April 28, 2002 La Plata tornado. That was the mother of supercells to hit this region in recent memory.

0Z NAM has 4 to 8 inches of rain for DC and southern suburbs in the next 9 hours

Radar seems to show the cells moving back toward SW toward the DC/Baltimore area from SE PA. and southeastward from SW PA.

Our first Flash Flood Warning was issued 4 hours before the Flash Flood Watch was to go into effect.

In most of our weather situations that we care about (IE Winter Storms) this rationale of an earlier arrival AND exit seems to be the norm

This system is filling precipitation in behind the initial batch WAY too quickly, and the radar matches models and the dire predictions from the WPC forecasters from earlier....so far. It is only a matter of what location gets the jackpot of a flood overnight. Not one I would root for.

BWI: 5.35" DCA: 3.65" IAD: 4.55" Tiebreaker RIC: 2.58" Gusts BWI: 33 DCA: 38 IAD: 34 TPL: 42 knots(49 mph) Tiebreaker RIC: 33