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jewell2188

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About jewell2188

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    culpeper

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  1. jewell2188

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    It’s a big rain producer! Drove through it as it was coming through Haymarket.
  2. jewell2188

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    Ugh an hour later and it’s still pathetic...I’m just saying.
  3. jewell2188

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    Doesn’t look promising right now. Radar is rather pathetic...at least we have filtered sunshine...makes the humidity bearable
  4. jewell2188

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    All seems very iffy again. Lots of clouds all morning here in newington. Still waiting on the region wide severe/flood event
  5. jewell2188

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    I have noticed! As I said this morning, this “threat” today and tomorrow went from exciting to meh in 24 hours. Certainly has been a change from this time last year.
  6. jewell2188

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    I’d rather have the heavy rain threat vs severe.
  7. jewell2188

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    It seemed 24 hrs ago it could have been a big day today, now the overall setup seems meh
  8. jewell2188

    June Discobs 2019

    .HYDROLOGY... Concern is increasing about flood/flash flood potential; not so much today, but moreso Monday and Tuesday. Moisture is not as significant or deep as we might typically like, but having a stalled front in the area does mean there`s an increased likelihood of training thunderstorms and thus perhaps some flooding. For now, we are watching what`s happening upstream, and waiting to see where the surface front ends up tonight. Since the activity is convective in nature and these weak impulses don`t lend themselves to high confidence well in advance -- plus we currently have relatively high Flash Flood Guidance -- I have elected to wait and see how today plays out. From a flood perspective, Tuesday might actually have a higher potential than Monday (with Monday`s rains serving as the primer).
  9. jewell2188

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    From where? Nothing remotely close
  10. jewell2188

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    No surprise, cloudy here most of day.
  11. jewell2188

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    Nudge that south a bit and I’ll take it.
  12. jewell2188

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    A cold front will approach the area from the north today. The front will stall out nearby on Monday and remain nearly stationary across the area through the middle of next week. It may finally shift southeast of the region by Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A very warm and humid air mass will be in place today coupled with a lee-side trof and weak 500 mb wave will aid in t-storm development this afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively strong with 40kt at 500mb contributing to 30-40kt of 0-6km bulk shear. A few severe t- storms are expected late this afternoon through late this evening. Northern and central Maryland appears to be at greatest risk of severe thunderstorms with t-storm coverage decreasing markedly south of I-66. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the biggest threat given the moderately strong flow aloft and fast storm motions (~ 30kt). The severe wx threat should wane after 10PM or so, but risk of t- storms will likely persist well into the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Monday still appears as it will be the most active day this week with a slow moving front nearby and ripples of upper level energy aiding in t-storm formation. Shear and storm motions will be weaker suggesting an increased flash flood threat especially given mid- level flow becoming parallel to sfc front which will also favor training. CAPE values, on the other hand, are expected to be much higher than on Sunday, which also support a severe wx and flash flood threat. A flash flood watch may be issued for some areas at this time tomorrow once confidence in location of t-storms increases. Simulated satellite imagery from various global models indicate convection will be more widespread and intense than today.
  13. jewell2188

    June Banter 2019

    The blues were the caps of last year. Underdog throughout the playoffs but overcame and ultimately Succeeded.
  14. jewell2188

    June Discobs 2019

    Been a pretty rainy day in warrenton since about 10:30 this morning
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