2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[mitchnick]

Ughhh. I know it's good, but in light of everything up the coast, I  fear the Gfs heading for Niña climo. Here's Kuchera 

[paxpatriot]

8 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Brutal cutoff to the NW. still think I’d take my chances with that H5 look and would expect better results in the end.

[Paleocene]

Worth noting that GFS still has us sweating thermals at the surface. upstairs looks good at all levels. We're gonna be praying for good rates in the cities to overcome the UHI death zones!

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Sticking with the solution.  If it goes down, it is going down swinging.

But even with other guidance doing more IVT stuff...has any of it even gotten close to what the GFS is doing with the full capture scenario?

[CAPE]

Just catching up now. I'm not a digital snow freak like Ji. These amounts are ridiculous, but fun to laugh at. The ratios here will probably be 6, or 5-1 tops

I'm thinking 6-10" is reasonable.

[WxUSAF]

FWIW, apparently new run of the Graf gets us pretty good. Not gfs good, but good. It was a far east outlier before apparently.

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But even with other guidance doing more IVT stuff...has any of it even gotten close to what the GFS is doing with the full capture scenario?

Not even the GFS is doing what the GFS was doing.  Those 3-4" QPF runs were pure fantasy.

[bncho]

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Not even the GFS is doing what the GFS was doing.  Those 3-4" QPF runs were pure fantasy.

Some spots on the Jersey Shore got nearly 3" on that run. But yeah, no more 4" lollies

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Not even the GFS is doing what the GFS was doing.  Those 3-4" QPF runs were pure fantasy.

Where are you referring to?   GFS looks close to 3" precip right along the bay?

[Chris78]

15 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

That gfs run should have 1000% been better at the surface. H5 at 54 is more negative and more intense with almost a perfect axis.  

WTF. I looked at h5 before looking at the surface and I thought it was going to bring the good bands from the coastal west to atleast Frederick. 

Really disappointing the surface actually got worse..

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ughhh. I know it's good, but in light of everything up the coast, I  fear the Gfs heading for Niña climo. Here's Kuchera 

I love this map. And an extra 30 mile shift NW will be house money

[balltermen]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

if the GFS loses this when the storm actually forms in 24 hours---it should be retired asap. I get losing it 2 days ago or 3 days ago but NOW it cant lose it

inverse of 2/12/14 when the GFS had a weak wave going wide right like a day before 

We rely too much on models 

we've had events like this. I'd like look back to the two March 1984 events. I wonder how much fell at DCA 

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Where are you referring to?   GFS looks close to 3" precip right along the bay?

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I love this map. And an extra 30 mile shift NW will be house money

One more H5 shift and it just might do it

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ughhh. I know it's good, but in light of everything up the coast, I  fear the Gfs heading for Niña climo. Here's Kuchera 

It’s so close to a HECS and also so close to a Niña whiff where NJ and NYC crush it.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

WTF. I looked at h5 before looking at the surface and I thought it was going to bring the good bands from the coastal west to atleast Frederick. 

Really disappointing the surface actually got worse..

Run it back 0z and I bet the sfc will be better

[IronTy]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Thanks, that makes it clear!  My wife is supposed to travel to Philadelphia Monday morning.  Should I break to her the news?

[CAPE]

Straight up porn from WPC-

@MillvilleWx

*** Nor'easter develops off Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday with impacts in the Northeast through Monday ***

Complex phasing evolution between a strong n/s shortwave and s/s disturbance migrating east out of the Rockies will generate a significant SLP maturation along the Atlantic seaboard with appreciable impacts poised for a large portion of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Trends the last 24hrs have favored a cleaner phase scenario with the 500mb height pattern amplifying once east of the Mississippi, negatively tilting as the pattern evolves downstream into the Ohio Valley and east coast. Model discrepancies are beginning to shrink with the majority of ensemble members now showing a more "tucked" SLP solution, albeit location of primary coastal is still being worked out as it reaches the latitude of MD/DE which would imply fairly robust implications in terms of the positioning of the CCB development and accompanying norlun (inverted) trough axis that will likely develop due to the phasing pattern and 500mb ULL progression across the central and southern Mid Atlantic. Sensible weather pattern will likely begin early Sunday morning with a light precip field entering the central and southern Mid Atlantic, encroaching a relatively benign antecedent airmass with the lower PBL likely to be marginal or just too warm for snowfall until you get further north closer to the Mason Dixon and northwest of the fall line in the Piedmont where wetbulb temps are forecast to be near freezing at precip onset. Further south off the Carolina coast, surface cyclogenesis will materialize within a strengthening diffluent axis ahead of the amplifying mean trough, and within the LER of a strong upper jet rounding the trough base across the Southern Mid Atlantic. As this evolution materializes over the course of Sunday, expectation is for the precip field to blossom with height falls encroaching the region allowing for reputable diabatic cooling to aid in lower PBL temperatures to cool, thus changing the primary hydrometeors from a mixture of liquid/solid, to all solid, implying a shift to snowfall with a favored collapse of the rain/snow line from northwest to southeast. As this occurs, expectation is for rates to begin picking up under the influence of an ULL passage across VA leading to heightened ascent north of the closed 500mb progression with increasing coverage of banding structures as the dynamical processes begin to mature. Cross- sections from most of the numerical suite indicate appreciable omega across the central Mid Atlantic over to the Delmarva and points northeast as the system continues to evolve and the cyclone deepens rapidly off the Mid Atlantic coast. Areas furthest west from the primary surface low will, at the very least be under a threat from a maturing norlun trough that is pretty well-defined within several of the main NWP outputs, including the global deterministic. This area will be a relatively narrow corridor of heavy precip with significant ascent allowing for a band of heavy snow to develop and slowly progress east- northeast through the storms life cycle. Some guidance goes as far as a full "capture" at the mid-levels which allows for the surface low off the Atlantic coast to slow considerably and tuck closer to the coast allowing for a more pronounced coastal enhancement to be thrown back further west with a robust QPF distribution within a defined CCB axis that will develop to the west of the surface reflection. These outputs are generating the more significant snowfall accumulations across the Mid Atlantic to Southern New England in NWP output. That is only one potential outcome however, as current cluster analysis indicates two other viable scenarios that still deliver solid snowfall totals, but not as pronounced due to a lower influence directly from the coastal. Inverted trough axis is most likely to benefit areas west of the Chesapeake Bay up into PA with the coastal impacts likely to be felt from coastal Delmarva up through coastal NJ, Eastern LI, and Southeast New England. These areas have seen an appreciable uptick in the prob fields for all reputable totals, but especially >6", which is up to 40-80% across the aforementioned areas. The areas with more question marks are further west and northwest away from the coastal areas just due to potentially missing the coastal enhancement and losing some of the precip to the marginal airmass presence. That said, this setup is forecast to be very dynamic with appreciable ascent within the column with a favorable 850-500mb evolution capable of producing snowfall rates >1"/hr for hours, even within that norlun trough axis that will develop.

[HighStakes]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

WTF. I looked at h5 before looking at the surface and I thought it was going to bring the good bands from the coastal west to atleast Frederick. 

Really disappointing the surface actually got worse..

Absolutely! 973 tucked into OC. Makes no sense that it didn't respond at the surface.

[DDweatherman]

We still don’t know WTF this storm is going to do. Do they ever let us breathe a little easier. Great write up Mill. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, HighStakes said:

Absolutely! 973 tucked into OC. Makes no sense that it didn't respond at the surface.

I will put a months pay on putting that low there and guaranteeing even imby I get 12+

[baltosquid]

Keep it coming

[Ji]

Worth noting that GFS still has us sweating thermals at the surface. upstairs looks good at all levels. We're gonna be praying for good rates in the cities to overcome the UHI death zones!

How is 32 sweating

[balltermen]

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Not even the GFS is doing what the GFS was doing.  Those 3-4" QPF runs were pure fantasy.

It doesn't handle tricky phases well in a Nina. we need a robust STJ so the Euro can become a rock for 10 days 

I don't know how much of this is resolution?

This is not my area, but I assume global models aren't designed for specific types of discrete events. But maybe it is QC'ed and tweaked based on how it handles events with big media?

I don't care about its verification score on QPF in Chennai 

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

How is 32 sweating

I'm on that 33 lol. And that's 21z. Worse earlier in day

 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Keep it coming

Deepest and furthest west mean yet…

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Keep it coming

Every run is deeper and closer to the coast.

[Ji]

I'm on that 33 lol. And that's 21z. Worse earlier in day

Depends on rates

[baltosquid]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Every run is deeper and closer to the coast.

in case the classic rhyme is a jinx, I'll just say the trend is our amigo