Ajb

Lost rates for a while, but picking up again. Maybe .75 inches on the deck.

Was in the heavy stuff for a while. Moderate snow now.

Coming down rapidly near DTSS. Accumulating on the streets.

Beautiful large flakes in the band over the northern beltway.

Finally some moderate snow near DTSS.

Woke up with the ground and streets covered near DTSS. Rates picking up now.

Small flakes mixing in near DTSS.

Is it still the case that the ensembles will be based on the old physics?

Thanx for the response. Maybe this belongs somewhere else, but I’m curious the extent to which the next op follows the control. I guess this goes to the implicit probability distribution over the ensemble numbers (with some large unknown weight on “other” I suppose). Assuming the initial conditions update between runs, is there a physics/ingestion reason for the updated initial conditions to be closer to the control than any other perturbed member?

Sure, but why the control as opposed to p587 or whatever? They have equal weight, right? Not being pissy; honestly trying to understand.

Why is there any reason to look at the control (as opposed to any other ensemble member), when the op has the same initial conditions with higher resolution? Isn’t the main point of the control to diagnose the impact of the loss of resolution on the ensemble?

But how much airplane data is there these days?

There's always a lot of talk about temp records, but I can't remember this many days with dews in the seventies. Is anyone keeping track of records along those lines?

Snow globe near DTSS. Deck is caving.

All snow near DTSS now. Nothing sticking yet.