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Ajb

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Everything posted by Ajb

  1. Probably about 4” near DTSS. Still snowing steadily, but not quite as hard as between 10-11:30.
  2. Weather plays a major role in electricity consumption, so maybe that was taken from a write-up aimed at the electricity industry.
  3. For people really interested in the science of that which shall not be named, I really encourage you to look at the IPCC working group 1 report. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ There's a ton of information there, with links to the original papers, and it should be able to answer all of your questions.
  4. Don’t forget the sulfate aerosols.
  5. Without commenting on the video specifically, maybe some rando on YouTube isn't the best place to get your news and analysis?
  6. Enormous flakes near DTSS. Grass is covered, elevated surfaces might be giving in. I'd like to request that this band not go anywhere for a while.
  7. Heaviest snow of the day so far (not that heavy) near DTSS.
  8. It’s one member of the ensemble. It has the same initial conditions as the op and can be used to diagnose the impacts of the differing resolution between the ensembles and the op. I don’t think there’s any reason to give it any more weight than any other member of the ensembles, but I’d be interested hearing otherwise.
  9. For what possible reason is it worth looking at the ensemble control at 240+ hours?
  10. Something pretty legit just went by us near DTSS.
  11. Lost rates for a while, but picking up again. Maybe .75 inches on the deck.
  12. Was in the heavy stuff for a while. Moderate snow now.
  13. Coming down rapidly near DTSS. Accumulating on the streets.
  14. Beautiful large flakes in the band over the northern beltway.
  15. Woke up with the ground and streets covered near DTSS. Rates picking up now.
  16. Is it still the case that the ensembles will be based on the old physics?
  17. Thanx for the response. Maybe this belongs somewhere else, but I’m curious the extent to which the next op follows the control. I guess this goes to the implicit probability distribution over the ensemble numbers (with some large unknown weight on “other” I suppose). Assuming the initial conditions update between runs, is there a physics/ingestion reason for the updated initial conditions to be closer to the control than any other perturbed member?
  18. Sure, but why the control as opposed to p587 or whatever? They have equal weight, right? Not being pissy; honestly trying to understand.
  19. Why is there any reason to look at the control (as opposed to any other ensemble member), when the op has the same initial conditions with higher resolution? Isn’t the main point of the control to diagnose the impact of the loss of resolution on the ensemble?
  20. But how much airplane data is there these days?
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