tstate21

I'm counting this as a "winter weather advisory watch".

First signs of snow mixing in here in Owings Mills.

I know its only the 18z NAM (and at range), but at 78 hours it is substantially further south from it's 12z run. Seems that there is quite a bit more confluence from the northern stream. Maybe a nice start going into happy hour?

And there's the TW but radar isn't looking as impressive the last few scans.

Certainly some broad rotation just E of White Marsh but nothing of immediate concern at the moment. If there is going to be a brief spin-up soon, it would likely be in that area.

Tornado possible tag in the STW for the cell near Beltsville.

14-21 named storms is such a large range IMO. Since 2010, 77% (10/13) years had between 14-21 named storms. Easy to be "correct" when you have such a large target. It tells me that they are unsure of what is actually going to happen.

On a related note, what radar apps/websites are you all using? I used to use marylandwx but their radar site has been down for months now.

Either everyone has given up or everyone is asleep to miss the bomb at 204h on the 00z Euro...

Just a beautiful setup on the 00z Euro with a slow moving juicy low running into a stout 1040mb+ high up top and then redeveloping off the coast. Surely shows the potential of the pattern coming up. Can the Euro finally be picking up on the start of something here or is it another mirage?

If we were to have a shot, we need that ridge on the west coast to trend stronger. Last couple runs have done that, but we need about 3 to 4 more runs of that.

Ridge on the west coast on the GEFS has been trending west the past few runs which, which has allowed a bit separation between the two waves, but has also allowed our diving wave to be more west also. Ideally, we would like to see it trend back stronger and a bit more east.

Very intrigued to see the trends on the 00z GEFS tonight. You can tell early on in the game whether the run is going to be a good one or not based on that PV split. I wouldn't be concerned with surface depictions at this juncture until that is resolved.

And for those counting, the 00z CMC sticks to the cutter idea this round. More consolidated energy dropping down into the CONUS.

Great trend on the 00z GFS. Once the PV splits, we need that first piece of energy to be as robust as possible to force the diving of the energy on the backend S and E.