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tstate21

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About tstate21

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDMW
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Owings Mills, MD
  1. Up here NW of Baltimore, winds started about 15 minutes ago and came in with a force. Most intense gusts were within 5 minutes of onset, but have settled down a bit since then. Looks like some stations close by reported between 50-60 MPH gusts.
  2. The GFS would be in the NAM camp. At this point the Euro and UKMET will be pretty telling to see where we stand.
  3. Anyone else glad the CMC is slow to catch on? Still way south but a bit more development from the 00z run.
  4. Saw the maps on TT and was about to post the same thing. Compared to 0z Sat, the high coming down the plains is a bit slower as well. Anyone with paid maps care to comment?
  5. Agreed. Weaker follow up wave and the high is squashing the storm a bit.
  6. So it seems we're really looking at a few factorsto see if we even have a shot. I know there are others as well- 1. Separation between the midweek "storm" and the follow up wave 2. Strength of the follow up wave. Past couple runs of the GFS have shown more energy; thus, stronger end result 3. Orientation of where the WC ridge sets up. Farther west Ridge, farther west storm. By the way, watching TWC for the first time in who knows how long. Good or bad omen for tonight's runs?
  7. 50 bucks says someone hacks into this gfs run so it shows a snowstorm on d8-d9. Next run will show nothing. On a side note, it's a shame the d4-5 storm cuts. Congrats MN.
  8. 12z CMC has a more vigorous sw behind our mid week storm than the GFS is showing. Decent setup. Not sure anyone cares about day 10 though at this point...
  9. Long time lurker here... it seems that we need the southern SW from the first system to become the dominant LP, as otherwise the front never comes through and the later week storm easily cuts. If the southern shortwave from the Monday system were to develop more as we saw in earlier runs, then the later system has to dig more. Unfortunately, models have been trending away from that idea
  10. Have a friend who lives down in Ellicott City - he said they had dime-sized hail and the power is out, but no tornado touchdown by him.
  11. LWX finally acknowledging the threat at least with a slight risk for both west and east of the Blue Ridge - http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter#wsoutlook Although, their forecast discussion doesn't seem too bullish right now.
  12. Good discussion by LWX this afternoon - LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW A VAGUE CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS THE SAME WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AS IT USUALLY IS...EVEN MORE SO THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THE SUN ANGLE GETS HIGHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE. 12Z GEFS/CANADIAN AND 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE ON LOW TRACK BUT STILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD...THOUGH BETTER CLUSTERING THAN 24 HOURS AGO. 12Z OPER ECMWF/CMC/GFS ARE CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LENDING A MODEST INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL LOW TRACK. IT IS NOT LIKELY TO TRACK INLAND DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WHICH FAVORS AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE AT 500 MB...BUT THE STORM LIKELY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ALTOGETHER DUE TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN INCREASINGLY POSITIVE PNA WITH A NEUTRAL AND NEGATIVELY TRENDING AO AND MODESTLY POSITIVE NAO TRENDING SLIGHTLY IN A NEGATIVE DIRECTION SUGGEST COLD AIR WILL TEND TO BE MOVING IN AS THE STORM TAKES SHAPE RATHER THAN BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE STORM...WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO PTYPE. TALLYING ALL THE MEMBERS FROM ALL THE ENSEMBLES...ABOUT 30 PERCENT HAVE A SIGNAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF I-95...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED/COOLER. PTYPE WILL LIKELY BE A BIG ISSUE FROM THE METROS SOUTH AND EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO WAVER. OF NOTE...THE 12Z UKMET IS MUCH MORE MERIDIONAL BY 12Z WED WITH A CLOSED LOW DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THOUGH THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED...AND LENDS TO A STILL UNCERTAIN FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE.
  13. Long time lurker - A few key changes that I already see on the 12z gfs - 1.) The key to the larger storm next week is to have the first storm amplify as much as possible to usher in the arctic high before the storm. You can clearly see the differences between the initial cold front between the 6z and 12z gfs at 108 hrs and 114 hrs, respectively. The more our initial storm amplifies, the farther south and east the cold air can push and the farther south and east our potential storm will be. I'll let the rest of the run play out to see if this holds true.
  14. Snow and sleet mix in Owings Mills
  15. I know we are talking about the NAM here, but what is going to stop this vort from closing off earlier and closer to the coast? The last few runs of not only the NAM, but other models such as the EURO have been slowing the storm down as it treks across the country; thus, showing a phase closer to the coast. I don't think it is out of the spectrum of possibilities for this thing to close off sooner than currently anticipated and give us a hit as well. Just my two cents.