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About tstate21

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    Owings Mills, MD

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  1. tstate21

    March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD

    Sterling isn't buying into the snowier Euro solution - leaning towards the GFS. Through the period of Monday night through Tuesday night, a low pressure system will reach the Appalachian Front and transfer its energy to the East Coast to form the coastal low that is expected to intensify as it moves to the northeast. Still, there are variations in the timing of the formation of this coastal low, the track of this low, and the precipitation type. The NAM, GFS and European model do not agree on a lot of these mentioned factors prior to 18z Tuesday. The NAM during the past couple model runs has been flipping back and forth with significant amounts of snow to a small amount of a mix of rain and snow after some rain. The GFS has been consistent with snow amounts across the region with an average of 2 to 4 inches of snow after a period of rain. The latest European model should be used with a little caution, considering it is showing most areas receiving several inches of snow Tuesday into Tuesday night. A couple of days ago, it was revealing the same scenario, but the last model run or two, it backed off on the amounts. Lately, and possibly to this minute, our forecast has been a blend of the GFS and European model with a lean toward the GFS model. Where the three models tend to agree is around the 18z time of Tuesday. All three models have the newly-formed coastal low on Tuesday about 50 miles to the east of Norfolk, Virginia with a trailing trough of low pressure to the southwest then northwest into southwest Virginia. At least with this position, we have a potential of seeing several inches of snow, especially north and west of the I-95 corridor. As the coastal low passes by to our east then northeast later Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon, colder air will get drawn in from the north. The colder air will move into place shortly ahead of the next shortwave that will be on the heels of the first coastal low. A lull in the precipitation is most likely later Tuesday in between the two lows. Precipitation will fill in as the second coastal low develops Tuesday night. Guidance still diverges on how strong the low will be and consequently how much precipitation fills in. It does appears that the best chance for precipitation will be across the west and south...closer to the track of the low. Thermal profiles will be colder due to northerly winds and this will cause the p-type to be snow for most areas. Accumulating snow is possible.
  2. tstate21

    JAN 4th Coastal

    https://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_HRDPS_HR_e.html For all those that are asking what the HRDPS model is. My interpretation is the Canadian version of the hi res 3k NAM.
  3. tstate21

    JAN 4th Coastal

    I think the most important part of the 00z gfs run is the last piece of energy coming down. Its diving much further south and allowing the storm to come further north and not acting as much of a kicker. I know others have noted this as well.
  4. tstate21

    Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

    Seeing a lot of double barrel lows on various model runs for this storm. Is that a function of the GL low jumping over to merge with the forming coastal low?
  5. tstate21

    Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

    12z Euro looks a good bit further west from yesterdays 12z at 144h. Trough is aligned west of Chicago as compared to the IL/IN border on yesterdays run. Not sure how it compares to 00z.
  6. tstate21

    Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

    That's a nice 50-50 low showing up. Much deeper than the previous few runs.
  7. tstate21

    Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

    Euro 500mb height map at 144h looks a lot more like the 12z CMC than the 12z GFS. Nice to see.
  8. tstate21

    Major Hurricane Irma

    I forgot who mentioned it yesterday, but you can definitely still see the effects of the ridge pushing down on the northern side of the cyclone. It's giving Irma a more elongated appearance and is continuing it on a W or slightly south of due west track.
  9. tstate21

    The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

    Wow hr 96 of the 00z gfs. Landfall near Port Lavaca, TX @ 950mb
  10. tstate21

    The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

    Technically it would be Irma, Irene was retired back in 2011 - but yeah the CMC has been throwing out some ridiculous runs over the past week.
  11. tstate21

    The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

    Well that was fast... 000 WTNT44 KNHC 172048 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined circulation in the low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles, with the center near a cluster of sheared, but strong, convection. The aircraft data suggest that the maximum winds are near 35 kt and that the central pressure is near 1004 mb. Based on these data, the disturbance is upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey. The initial motion is 270/16. There is no change to the forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the system should steer it quickly just north of due west through the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the system through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea in 12-24 h, into the central Caribbean by 48-72 h, and to the western Caribbean by 96-120 h. One adjustment is that the 96-120 h points have been nudged a little southward in response to a shift in the guidance, and thus now lie closer to Central America than on the previous forecast. The forecast track again lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and the various consensus models. The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should continue through at least 72 h. The conflicting forecast scenarios alluded to in the previous advisory remain, with the SHIPS and LGEM models still showing steady intensification while the GFS and ECMWF models still forecast degeneration to an easterly wave over the central Caribbean. The new intensity forecast again follows the trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it remains on the low side of the guidance envelope out of respect for the GFS/ECMWF. The 96-120 h intensities have been decreased a little due to the forecast track showing more land interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.0N 55.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.1N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 13.4N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 13.7N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 14.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 17.0N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
  12. tstate21

    March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs

    I'm in OM as well and I'm still seeing snow. Per the CC radar, the changeover likely will be happening shortly.
  13. tstate21

    March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs

    We all need to hope for the 00z GFS to somehow score a coup tonight. I know it's a bit too late to look at but nice to see it lining up with the recent trends on the HRRR anyway.
  14. tstate21

    March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs

    Even though temps are around 40 in the Baltimore area, current obs are showing dewpoints in the mid to upper teens. Seems like we have a bit of room to play with here.
  15. tstate21

    March med-long range disco thread 2

    Saw that happening earlier in the run. The Sunday "storm" was even more suppressed than last run and in turn the Tuesday storm had more energy to work with. Hopefully, it's a trend.