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About tstate21

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    Owings Mills, MD

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  1. I forgot who mentioned it yesterday, but you can definitely still see the effects of the ridge pushing down on the northern side of the cyclone. It's giving Irma a more elongated appearance and is continuing it on a W or slightly south of due west track.
  2. Wow hr 96 of the 00z gfs. Landfall near Port Lavaca, TX @ 950mb
  3. Technically it would be Irma, Irene was retired back in 2011 - but yeah the CMC has been throwing out some ridiculous runs over the past week.
  4. Well that was fast... 000 WTNT44 KNHC 172048 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined circulation in the low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles, with the center near a cluster of sheared, but strong, convection. The aircraft data suggest that the maximum winds are near 35 kt and that the central pressure is near 1004 mb. Based on these data, the disturbance is upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey. The initial motion is 270/16. There is no change to the forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the system should steer it quickly just north of due west through the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the system through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea in 12-24 h, into the central Caribbean by 48-72 h, and to the western Caribbean by 96-120 h. One adjustment is that the 96-120 h points have been nudged a little southward in response to a shift in the guidance, and thus now lie closer to Central America than on the previous forecast. The forecast track again lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and the various consensus models. The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should continue through at least 72 h. The conflicting forecast scenarios alluded to in the previous advisory remain, with the SHIPS and LGEM models still showing steady intensification while the GFS and ECMWF models still forecast degeneration to an easterly wave over the central Caribbean. The new intensity forecast again follows the trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it remains on the low side of the guidance envelope out of respect for the GFS/ECMWF. The 96-120 h intensities have been decreased a little due to the forecast track showing more land interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.0N 55.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.1N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 13.4N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 13.7N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 14.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 17.0N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
  5. I'm in OM as well and I'm still seeing snow. Per the CC radar, the changeover likely will be happening shortly.
  6. We all need to hope for the 00z GFS to somehow score a coup tonight. I know it's a bit too late to look at but nice to see it lining up with the recent trends on the HRRR anyway.
  7. Even though temps are around 40 in the Baltimore area, current obs are showing dewpoints in the mid to upper teens. Seems like we have a bit of room to play with here.
  8. Saw that happening earlier in the run. The Sunday "storm" was even more suppressed than last run and in turn the Tuesday storm had more energy to work with. Hopefully, it's a trend.
  9. 12z Euro at 120 looks much better than yesterday's 12z run. Deeper trough and northern stream vort digging more as well.
  10. I saw the same thing. It loads to 138 then directly to 174. Looks similar to 12z at the same timeframe. Now to see exactly how it gets there...
  11. Up here NW of Baltimore, winds started about 15 minutes ago and came in with a force. Most intense gusts were within 5 minutes of onset, but have settled down a bit since then. Looks like some stations close by reported between 50-60 MPH gusts.
  12. The GFS would be in the NAM camp. At this point the Euro and UKMET will be pretty telling to see where we stand.
  13. Anyone else glad the CMC is slow to catch on? Still way south but a bit more development from the 00z run.
  14. Saw the maps on TT and was about to post the same thing. Compared to 0z Sat, the high coming down the plains is a bit slower as well. Anyone with paid maps care to comment?
  15. Agreed. Weaker follow up wave and the high is squashing the storm a bit.