Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph at landfall

[hawkeye_wx]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It almost looks stationary the last few frames.

It hasn't moved in the last 90 minutes.

[CoastalWx]

Jesus those tops.

[batmanbrad]

8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It hasn't moved in the last 90 minutes.

is it stationary because something of an equilibrium has been (temporarily) reached between the competing steering flows?

[AStorms13]

Screenshot of new cone on Radar Omega. Not updating on other sites for some reason


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[SnoSki14]

Here we go Jamaica. Hit a wall, expect N/NNE turn shortly. Also the best its ever looked on satellite.

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Here we go Jamaica. Hit a wall, expect N/NNE turn shortly. Also the best its ever looked on satellite.

Certainly looks like it. Let's see if this is the beginning of a change towards a north/north east move.

[NJwx85]

Looks like tidbits is having issues. Server overload it seems.

[Scott747]

12 minutes ago, AStorms13 said:

Screenshot of new cone on Radar Omega. Not updating on other sites for some reason


.

It isn't updating because there isn't a new cone....

[MarkO]

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Certainly looks like it. Let's see if this is the beginning of a change towards a north/north east move.

Look at the symmetry. It's got to be strengthening. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MarkO said:

Look at the symmetry. It's got to be strengthening. 

It’s the best its looked yet. Unreal.

[SchaumburgStormer]

9 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Certainly looks like it. Let's see if this is the beginning of a change towards a north/north east move.

Insane symmetry and cold tops. Wow 

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

It isn't updating because there isn't a new cone....

Right for those lurking/not familiar with tropical—the intermediate advisories do not have a cone change. That happens at 5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm ET when the full advisory is issued. That’s also when we get the technical discussions.

In addition, the width of the cone is based strictly on historical track error, which is defined before the season. 

What you’re seeing tonight is not uncommon at all for imminent coastal threats, especially powerful ones. They can drift/meander/wobble. The best way to track the longer term motion is to use radar and recon center fixes. All the way until landfall. 

[Nibor]

Past ~30ish hours of just a wobbling crawl.

[RU848789]

42 minutes ago, MDSnow93 said:

They widened the cone significantly. Much more room off the west coast, and pretty much to the eastern edge.

The 5 pm and 8 pm NHC cones are identical, as they usually are, as I don't recall them ever updating those maps for the intermediate advisories.  Files too large to paste here, which surprises me.  

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/MELISSA_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_with_line

[hawkeye_wx]

Latest Google track

[HKY_WX]

Not sure how much lower pressure the atmosphere can support down there. Assuming it can go close to 900mb. Just a sick setup. The depth of the warm water in that area is always off the chart.

[cptcatz]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Right for those lurking/not familiar with tropical—the intermediate advisories do not have a cone change. That happens at 11am and 5pm ET when the full advisory is issued. That’s also when we get the technical discussions.

In addition, the width of the cone is based strictly on historical track error, which is defined before the season. 

What you’re seeing tonight is not uncommon at all for imminent coastal threats, especially powerful ones. They can drift/meander/wobble. The best way to track the longer term motion is to use radar and recon center fixes. All the way until landfall. 

And the 5am and 11pm  

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

And the 5am and 11pm  

Thanks, fixed. My bad lol

[Wannabehippie]

Both recon flights on first pass have lowest pressure at 910 mb.

 

[Radtechwxman]

Seems to be pretty steady state despite a very impressive IR appearance 

[Bhs1975]

I would think the eye would have to contract to get a lower pressure.


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[dan11295]

Look at the radar. heavy rain has been pounding most the island for the past 6 hours. Precip echos surrounding the eye seemed a bit less intense on the radar loop during the last 2-3 hours. Don't know if there is some attenuation involved since Melissa obviously still has great IR presentation. Not sure how long we will have access to radar once the storm moves closer.

[Coach McGuirk]

That's a really good looking eye.  Anyone in there is fucked. 

[the_other_guy]

25 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Latest Google track

Brutal for Montego Bay

[dan11295]

11230 1632N 07836W 6972 02308 9028 +223 +126 025015 020 016 002 00

902.8 mb extrap

Wonder if thats a bit low though.

[LP08]

Oh man…waiting for drop

[SnoSki14]

Final intensification burst tonight. About to go sub 900mbs 

One of the craziest satellite images I've ever seen in the Atlantic 

[Wannabehippie]

14 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

That's a really good looking eye.  Anyone in there is fucked. 

Hurricane Josh is in Jamaica shooting for another eyewall penetration.

[Wannabehippie]

NOAA got a 912, 910 and a 907 on its three penetrations. Awaiting word from the AF plane on its second pass.

[Radtechwxman]

1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said:

NOAA got a 912, 910 and a 907 on its three penetrations. Awaiting word from the AF plane on its second pass.

What's the difference between these and the extrapolated pressures? How do they derive the extrapolated pressures?