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About f2tornado

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  • Location:
    Bismarck, ND
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, baseball cards.

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  1. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    This is garbage. It's a Cat 2 with a very large wind field. The track has been almost dead on for the past week. The NHC was very conservative adjusting the track which worked in their favor for this storm. Perhaps they were a little too confident early on with their intensity discussion given all the inherent uncertainty (ERCs, shear, etc.) but they have consistently stated there would be some weakening as the the center approached the coast. Ultimately, a very large and dangerous storm is right where they forecast it to be.
  2. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Keep in mind this is a naturally very low spot that is prone to water on the road. That SUV is parked just past a permanently posted High Water sign. The local river is up a foot in recent days.
  3. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    For perspective, Katrina was about 120 TJ at landfall and Sandy was around 140 TJ. Florence is seemingly increasing wind radii and IKE is likely increasing with time. Max winds are likely to decrease on final approach but, like Katrina, the wall of water is built up and the coastal bites will magnify it. Another comparison, the peak surge for Hugo 1989 was just over 20 feet.
  4. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Cloud tops of tropical cyclones do typically warm with daytime heating. The best lapse rates occur at night. We may see one more big burst tonight with the diurnal max in concert with crossing some of the highest ocean heat content.
  5. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Negative, aside from sparing locations further inland more wind/flood damage. The stall will allow for persistent surge through multiple tide cycles combined with feet of rain with nowhere to escape. The potential exists for a large swath of coast to be more or less obliterated. This is what Hazel 1954 did: "All traces of civilization on the immediate waterfront between the state line and Cape Fear were practically annihilated... every pier in a distance of 170 miles of coastline was demolished".
  6. f2tornado

    Hurricane Maria

    Insane if even remotely accurate. Almost 100x record flow rate.
  7. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    Palm Beach ASOS sustained 51kts gust 76kts. Bands on the east side will continue doing some damage as they spread north. Also, numerous rotating storms continue to move in. Many even have little hooks. A beefy one heading into Canaveral.
  8. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    But that's only 46mb above the (likely over-zealously modeled) 896 core. Basically accurate for the top floors of taller skyscrapers near the core. Tampa has many. The NHC will commonly note to prepare for one SS category higher in hi-rise buildings.
  9. This is very true. Chasers go out for the thrill of the storm but many are very happy to assist when possible. You see this a lot with chasers in the Plains though most are not equipped to handle much more than phone or radio communication to report what they are seeing.
  10. Yep. A 250 mile wide CDO is nothing to sneeze at.
  11. f2tornado

    'Hurricane Sandy: The next climate wake-up call?'

    The graph suggests a decent falling trend from the start of the period to the early 80s. There is likely some natural oscillation modulating whatever AGW signal one wants to try and pick out.
  12. f2tornado

    'Hurricane Sandy: The next climate wake-up call?'

    The eastern and central United States is subsiding at 1 to 2 millimeter per year owing to post-glacial isostatic adjustment. This means the effective sea level rise in the area Sandy hit is 1 to 2 millimeter per year regardless of eustatic MSL rise from AGW. No amount of CO2 reduction is gonna fix that particular contribution to the problem.
  13. f2tornado

    Canadian debate on climate change

    This is one of the few times I'll agree with skier. The climategate e-mails really only suggest one thing, that the academic AGW crowd is one big arrogant group think circle jerk.
  14. f2tornado

    IPCC Report is Released

    There are some proxy methods for getting fairly precise SST or near surface ST, at least in the tropics, using isotopes in coral. Some of these records go back 500 years. Pretty cool stuff. Every method I've seen has the same looking graph over the past 100+ years so I'm pretty comfortable with the magnitude and trend. The deep water data is pretty limited pre-argo but see no reason it would not be following a similar trend. Could the magnitude of trend potentially be overstated? Sure.