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About f2tornado

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    Bismarck, ND
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    Storm chasing, baseball cards.

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  1. Bryan Norcross discusses this specific communication problem in a 2017 writing. This is a less elegant piece than I'm accustomed seeing from him. He has a number of good pieces easily found with a Google search showing where improvements in communication and could be warranted.
  2. This will not be a popular opinion here. The BMX tweet would have been the end of it however ABC Nightly News turned the tweet into a hit piece on the President in an effort to stick him with a gaff. The President then lashed out at the reporter and the pile on began. I have rarely seen this kind of media passion to turn a nontroversy into a controversy. Consider the following published from BMX seven years ago AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 626 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012 TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE NEVER BORING OR EASY TO FORECAST AS ISAAC CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE. Kudos to the BMX forecaster who had the utmost confidence to publish an effective 0% forecast "no impacts... felt across Alabama" via Twitter in spite of the same office previously noting forecast difficulty with tropical systems. This conflicted, albeit slightly, with the NHC published probability distribution of TS winds covering a portion of AL. Further, it was somewhat inconsistent with the morning 9/1 Tallahassee AFD which covers southeast AL and stated, "The latest forecast for Hurricane Dorian from the National Hurricane Center continues to keep it east of the local area. While we still shouldn't let our guard completely down, the chance of impactful weather from Dorian occurring in our forecast area remains low". BMX should be no stranger to forecast uncertainty. Take a look at the forecast cone for Hurricane Isaac (2012) that at one time was nearly centered over BMX. In fact, the entire state of Alabama was enveloped within the cone before none of the state was in the cone. It should be noted, even though the entire state of Alabama was outside the forecast cone toward landfall, the Mobile area did experience some TS force gusts and impact from surge. The cone only represents the storm center forecast track. This is why NHC storm wind probabilities are smeared well outside the cone with time and why forecasters should be cautious speaking in absolute terms, particularly when the average error for a tropical system is about 200 miles on day 5.
  3. Indeed. It can have a good handle on things, at least in near time. Take a look at yesterday's 18z simulation for Significant Tornado Parameter at 14z this morning. I was surprised the SPC didn't bump up the pops a bit after seeing that. It was remarkably accurate.
  4. The nested NAM did an excellent job yesterday suggesting a heightened risk of tornadoes in SC/NC today. The 18z run suggests that threat will continue in eastern NC this evening. It looks like most of the low level CAPE will wash out by midnight which should greatly reduce the threat at that time. Here is the 18z run updraft helicity swath output.
  5. Someone had to go there. There is a politics subforum for this stuff. I sincerely think the President had that early guidance in his mind when it was clear to the rest of us there was almost zero threat to Alabama. The NWS made a couple forecast tweets and that would have been the end of it had ABC Nightly not turned it into a hit piece. As for the "Sharpie", that's pretty much what any weenie does extrapolating forecast tracks. Rarely will a sitting president admit error but the response to cover this one was silly. If the guy wasn't so tempermental he could have initially busted out the ECMWF graphic and only the hyper partisans would have continued questioning Alabama. Hopefully the incident sheds additional light to the public about forecast uncertainty, particularly beyond five days. Even the NHC cones are only expected to fully capture the tracks of two in three storms through five days.
  6. I think this is overstated or at least overly simplified. Keep in mind there is only a 27% difference in wind force from high end Cat 1 to a low end Cat 3. The high end Cat 1 will produce 2183N of force per square meter (1.229 kg/m3 x (42.1 m/s)^2) while the low end Cat 3 would produce 2992N per square meter (1.229 kg/m3 x (49.3 m/s)^2). A large high end Cat 1 is going to produce damaging winds for a longer duration over a larger area than a smaller low end Cat 3... and ultimately cause more overall damage.
  7. Can speak for the poster, but too bad the data is questionable for forecast and archival purposes.
  8. It's almost spot on track at this moment. I think the timing of the northeast turn will be more crucial. If that's delayed by an hour or two then we might end up with something the nested NAM is spitting out, putting CHS in the eyewall. I only reference the NAM for illustrative purposes...
  9. Integrated Kinetic Energy for this system was 57 TJ and increasing a couple days ago. Further, the track likely impeded the Gulfstream which could lead to additional water rise. Surge forecasting is tricky at best and the local surge warning products have backed off. Hopefully they are correct as I'd think there would be a fair amount of water piling into those coastal bends through tonight.
  10. About 2pm Wednesday afternoon. That will be a potentially critical time. Perhaps the more critical moment will be around 12 hours later when the projected turn to the northeast is forecast to begin. A delayed turn of just an hour or two could put Charleston in the eyewall. The current forecast has the storm center passing about 45 miles southeast of CHS which suggests the eyewall might only be 25 miles away on current forecast track
  11. If this forecast verifies for Charleston then it would only be second to Hugo.
  12. The NHC cone size is not subjective. It is based on recent historical track errors. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles
  13. Most ASOS are in open areas since the most accurate wind readings are taken at a distance of 10x or greater the height of an obstruction. Debris impact is possible but I would think not a common scenario given the general distance from stuff. If you make a sensor too heavy/durable then it can have a very slow response rate. Here’s a fun old school tidbit: Back in the days before mobile internet I would call the ASOS for the observations on storm chase days.
  14. Impressive damage in Albany, GA about 160 miles from the landfall point. But, it's a Cat Negative Two.
  15. I'm not sure what the wind rating is for an ASOS tower but some DOT RWIS towers are rated to 125 mph. But it was only a Cat Zero.