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About f2tornado

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    Bismarck, ND
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, baseball cards.

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  1. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Most ASOS are in open areas since the most accurate wind readings are taken at a distance of 10x or greater the height of an obstruction. Debris impact is possible but I would think not a common scenario given the general distance from stuff. If you make a sensor too heavy/durable then it can have a very slow response rate. Here’s a fun old school tidbit: Back in the days before mobile internet I would call the ASOS for the observations on storm chase days.
  2. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Impressive damage in Albany, GA about 160 miles from the landfall point. But, it's a Cat Negative Two.
  3. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I'm not sure what the wind rating is for an ASOS tower but some DOT RWIS towers are rated to 125 mph. But it was only a Cat Zero.
  4. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    This is garbage. It's a Cat 2 with a very large wind field. The track has been almost dead on for the past week. The NHC was very conservative adjusting the track which worked in their favor for this storm. Perhaps they were a little too confident early on with their intensity discussion given all the inherent uncertainty (ERCs, shear, etc.) but they have consistently stated there would be some weakening as the the center approached the coast. Ultimately, a very large and dangerous storm is right where they forecast it to be.
  5. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Keep in mind this is a naturally very low spot that is prone to water on the road. That SUV is parked just past a permanently posted High Water sign. The local river is up a foot in recent days.
  6. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    For perspective, Katrina was about 120 TJ at landfall and Sandy was around 140 TJ. Florence is seemingly increasing wind radii and IKE is likely increasing with time. Max winds are likely to decrease on final approach but, like Katrina, the wall of water is built up and the coastal bites will magnify it. Another comparison, the peak surge for Hugo 1989 was just over 20 feet.
  7. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Cloud tops of tropical cyclones do typically warm with daytime heating. The best lapse rates occur at night. We may see one more big burst tonight with the diurnal max in concert with crossing some of the highest ocean heat content.
  8. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Negative, aside from sparing locations further inland more wind/flood damage. The stall will allow for persistent surge through multiple tide cycles combined with feet of rain with nowhere to escape. The potential exists for a large swath of coast to be more or less obliterated. This is what Hazel 1954 did: "All traces of civilization on the immediate waterfront between the state line and Cape Fear were practically annihilated... every pier in a distance of 170 miles of coastline was demolished".
  9. f2tornado

    Hurricane Maria

    Insane if even remotely accurate. Almost 100x record flow rate.
  10. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    Palm Beach ASOS sustained 51kts gust 76kts. Bands on the east side will continue doing some damage as they spread north. Also, numerous rotating storms continue to move in. Many even have little hooks. A beefy one heading into Canaveral.
  11. f2tornado

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    But that's only 46mb above the (likely over-zealously modeled) 896 core. Basically accurate for the top floors of taller skyscrapers near the core. Tampa has many. The NHC will commonly note to prepare for one SS category higher in hi-rise buildings.
  12. This is very true. Chasers go out for the thrill of the storm but many are very happy to assist when possible. You see this a lot with chasers in the Plains though most are not equipped to handle much more than phone or radio communication to report what they are seeing.
  13. Yep. A 250 mile wide CDO is nothing to sneeze at.
  14. f2tornado

    'Hurricane Sandy: The next climate wake-up call?'

    The graph suggests a decent falling trend from the start of the period to the early 80s. There is likely some natural oscillation modulating whatever AGW signal one wants to try and pick out.