Water temp at this buoy 112m NW of Tampa is 88F. This is about 2 to 3* above the August average for that location. Combined with the low shear and upper level trough enhancement, pretty ideal setup up until landfall. Not sure I would expect any weakening. In fact, this looks pretty ideal for some explosive strengthening tonight. Perhaps more so than even forecasted. Not looking too good. If we see anymore trends west TLH could see some wild winds.
NDBC - Station 42036 Recent Data (noaa.gov)