HKY_WX

Some of the hi res models will prob start showing it tomorrow at some point.

My guess is there will a "finger" of precip that streaks out ahead of the main SLP. It will be purely driven by the 150kt jet streak that will start setting up tomorrow night over the northeast. There will be a ton of virga. That first wave will likely be snow in the northern third of NC. The question is how long will it last? Prob not too long lol.

Several models are keying in on NE GA/NW SC as ground zero for freezing rain.

Fall/Winter Model Verification seems to favor a blend of GFS/EC ENS means.

The only saving grace for the Triangle on this map, could be that most of the ZR comes at the tail end when the temps have risen to the upper 20s. The ice accretion is still good, but not all that falls will freeze like it would in the mid to lower 20s. That said it would still be very bad.

Man... The amount of precip this thing is going to pump out can't be accurately depicted. This is such an insane jet configuration for STJ moisture. I would be surprised if several of us don't see over 2 inches of qpf.

The CAM models will be interesting once the system gets going over Texas. I don't think I've had a chance to actually look at them with a storm in progress.

Something to note, the radar is not going to look like it will over the northeast (with that beautiful sheet of snow/banding/etc). We are getting "rain" for all intensive purposes. It will be sleet/ZR, but we will be in the warm sector of the storm and it will be squally/showery/etc. Once you get above a couple thousand feet, it will be over 40 degrees.

We could get dry slotted and will likely still get over an inch of precip. There will be a dry slot over the coast due to the SLP location being so close to the coastline.

Yeah i've thought that for a few days. However if thermals at 850mb are 10C, then it could theoretically be correct. I have seen sleet before where the warm nose is much higher (think 700ish mbs). If the warm nose is only a few thousand feet off the sfc (850mb - 900mb), then the rain doesn't have time to refreeze before it gets to the sfc. This is why you can have ZR with sfc temps in the teens.

I think my original analog of a December 2002 scenario in GA/Carolinas in January with colder air is pretty much going to work out. I know most of the state received 1.5-2 inches of precip in that system, which is what I would expect this time. The only saving grace could potentially be sleet as you all have noted. Otherwise it really would be catastrophic around here. A scenario worse than Dec 2002 really is scary to think about from a Power Outage/impact on life perspective.

Some decent trends on the NAM thus far. At this point, the entire baha wave is coming out, but a bit less northern energy interaction on the backend could be the difference between a front end thump of several inches of snow and a pure icestorm. Ideally you want to see that polar lob a bit further southeast than where it's at if you want snow. Some trends in that direction would be nice.

Pretty wild to see FRAM numbers that high. You can assume if we're getting 1.5ish QPF, that 1 inch is in the form of ZR and the rest sleet. Which means maybe an inch to 2 of sleet and an inch of ice on top. Pretty wild and devastating. If that were to happen, would likely be up there on the top 5 Icestorms of all time around northern Ga/N SC/NC.

NC IMBY - You will likely see the models lock in on the CAD more over the coming days. If surface temps are indeed in the teens, that will likely extend up quite a way. At least enough to produce sleet. Maybe even snow for longer than anticipated at the beginning.

Checkout the dewpoints on the GFS with the backdoor CAD front. -8 at RDU by 18z Saturday right before the precip starts.

You can see the flip side in tn/al. This is likely.

The same. At one point, it has freezing rain in Greensboro with sfc temps at 12. Hour 90 and 96.

ICON would likely be the worst ice storm in the history of the Carolinas. Devestating. only real savior for us could be sleet at this point given how cold the sfc temps will be.

The main difference in the models overnight was the piece of energy over Alberta. It is acting as a kicker, scooping out the baha low and phasing in behind it. This allows the SLP to gain some latitude and get into the interior deep south before transferring offshore NC (This will happen due to the cold air physics). Pretty much a classic Miller B vs the more Miller A setup we were seeing 24 hours ago. For a snow scenario in the south, you ideally want that PV lob to be sitting over New England vs southern Canada. This will bring more WAA aloft (aka more ZR/IP). It could also setup a screw zone in the area around/outside the CAD pocket. (Or non-screw zone if you like have heat/power). NC IMBY -- Since this will be a 48 hour event, the hope for snow in NC, per my thinking yesterday, is we get a wave of WAA snow/overrunning far out ahead of the main SLP. This would allow for some snow before the WAA aloft kicks in as the SLP draws near. Otherwise this will be sleet/ZR fest for the favored areas. Highly skeptical this will be anything other an frozen/freezing precip in the NC CAD areas.

3 days of watching the correlation coefficient radar. Fml

I think the 00z Thursday models (Tomorrow night) runs will be a good time to start thinking more about details (ICE vs SNOW). That's when the Baha wave will be close to shore and the HP is getting into southern Canada.

Just for posterity.

This is just complete model porn if you've researched and tracked these things for 25 years. Just absolutely SICK looking 500mb chart. I have NEVER seen one look this good for our area (GA/SC/NC) from just a general winter storm perspective, regardless of where you find yourself in the precip type category. Definitely soak in this next week.