HKY_WX

Back in my single days I would compare this to waiting on that girl to text you back. You knew in the back of your head it wasn't gonna happen but you held out hope just the same. (I'm sure this is something my fellow weather nerds can commiserate with)

Being from Hickory I always wondered what went on at meat camp. Then I drove through one time and realized absolutely nothing goes on at meat camp.

One thing to watch this evening is as the upper low begins to form and take shape off of the NC coastline is a nice deformation axis likely 100 -150nm to the west of the 850mb low. This is where there could be some banding/enhancement. If this were to occur a bit earlier or more dramatically than forecasted (aka phasing), obviously that would impact totals in a positive way (most likely area that would benefit is eastern NC and SE VA)... Something to keep in mind. Otherwise I will go with the below: HKY:T-1 inches CLT: 1-2 inches GSO: 1-3 inches RDU: 1-2 inches ORF: 2-4 inches

I think what we're seeing is the mods having difficulty handling the last minute phase possibility. The NAM actually trended better this run for that. IMO there will likely be a band setting up over central NC tomorrow night/Sat Morn that will pivot east. The strength of the band will be totally dependent on how much phasing we see at the last minute. More phasing and this band could drop 6+. Less phasing and it's just some snow squalls.

He's just comparing the Water Vapor Satellite with the NAM's 500mb chart. You can sometimes spot where the models are off. I've often noticed in the winter (specifically +PNA patterns) they tend to be bad at positioning northern stream impulses coming out of the northern territories of Canada. If anyone remembers the Christmas 2010 storm, they totally blew the northern stream shortwave which is why that trended towards a major storm literally the night before. Not saying that's the case here as the models have made huge strides since then. He also has a dog in the fight so take satellite hallucinations with a grain of salt.

The trend is beneficial to more phasing ultimately.

Euro continues to trend the ridge out west stronger. This is what's allowing the PJ to dig/dive a bit further southwest and capture some of the southern energy. Interesting trend to watch.

To reiterate this. The NAM didnt leave any energy behind in the southwest resulting in a full lattitude negatively titled trough aka phase. We need that energy to be captured by the northern stream for this to work out.

Yeah the NAM is pretty ideal for eastern NC. I could throw out some analogs to those 500mb maps, but theres no point in jizzing yourself unless we see some additional model support.

Def would like to see the other mods start following suite, however if you think back to the coastal bomb a few weeks ago... The NAM had the amped solution first.

If you could play the NAM forward the SLP would probably track towards or just off Hatteras which is a great track for central/eastern NC. Eastern VA/NE NC would likely get smashed. Still, need to see some additional model support or continued trends towards this. The euro actually trended more favorably aloft at 12z, however it didn't really manifest itself at the surface.

Yea the clock is ticking. We need this euro run to be favorable.

The trough is a bit too positively tilted to throw enough moisture back (at least in the southern Mid-Atlantic). The best bet on this one is for the northern stream to continue to trend a bit stronger/further west. That enables it to capture the southern energy (there a few different ways this could happen though). This would draw in a little more gulf moisture and also result in a quicker phase which would tilt the trough more negative and allow the SLP to track closer to the coast. The chance is there, but again the odds aren't great unless we see some solid trends soon.

I would still rather have the euro in my corner as well. In general it's still the best in the medium range.

I'm not forecasting anything as of now, but the models never look good until they do. If all you do is look at the ensemble statistical output you're just a modelologist. Nothing more.