HKY_WX

Hate being right in this case...

Powers out here in nw raleigh. Transformers blowing

Powers out here in nw raleigh. Transformer just blew

Most of the short range models show it developing over the foothills as the dry air starts to work into the storm and it begins to take on more ET characteristics. I looked at an animated loop of the Skew-T in N Charlotte and the winds reach the sfc once the dry airs starts working into the lower levels.

Some ground truth finally.

I think the western portion of the state will get in the game due to the approaching HP and the resultant pressure gradient. Additionally, the elevation is higher.

Take a peak at the WRF. Brings 50 to 55k sustained winds through SC/NC. That's not including gusts lol. The SFC low starts to strengthen as it hits NC and becomes more extratropical in nature. This will be a WILD 24 hours. Buckle up SE folks. We're witnessing history today/tomorrow.

We all witness history today. Like watching Andrew or Camille w/ 2018 technology/chasers/etc...

RDU is failing big time on this one IMO. After overhyping Florence, we're under hyping one of the strongest storms to ever hit the Gulf Coast that will be rocketing up through eastern NC. Unreal. Most people I work with have no clue what there in store for. 50-75mph winds is not joke. Florence barely reached 40MPH in Raleigh.

VF3 gfs has sustained winds of TS force coming through the triangle, gusts near hurricane force. I'm sure nws will catch up today and put up ts warnings for the triangle. I'm getting my chit this morning bf jq public hears the news

Only about 7 or 8 hrs from landfall

Euro has nasty winds for Eastern NC. This will end up much worse than Florence wind wise. I'm gasing up this morning bf the soccer moms figure things out.

I've noticed a lot of N moving canes in the GOM struggle w/ the southern portion of the CDO/Eye. Sometimes it's due to dry air intrusion/shear from the SW due to continental dry air/troughs. Also there is a tendency for dry air over the western GOM resultant from Texas/Mexico, especially this late in the season. You can see it well on the Water Vapor loop below. Late season dry air/slight W to SW shear is the only thing keeping this from being a Cat 5. Otherwise we would probably be in the 910-925mb range already. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Gulf_Coast-wv-1-24&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100

Save this for posterity... HWRF at landfall... Unreal.. Check out the VV's, height of the moisture column in the eyewall, Temp differences b/n the eye/outside the eye, Winds aloft, etc...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=14L&pkg=satIR&runtime=2018100918&fh=6 Kinda interesting to look at the HWRF IR sim. It's been doing well with this system thus far, notice how much better it looks as we get near landfall. The cloud tops will not be as cold, due to the gain in latitude. However, when it starts to interact w/ the trough in the next 6 hours, that will aid in accelerating the upper level outflow channels on the NW side, which is what results in the clearing/development of the eyewall. Side Note: I'm not sure where we're ultimately going w/ this one from a landfall intensity standpoint, but it doesn't look good if you're a resident of Panama City Beach.... This could make landfall as a Cat 4.