HKY_WX

18z nam shifted the precip east. Will be interesting to follow tonight/tomorrow as the wedge builds in

ANyone noticing the CAD/ice showing up on the NAM for tomorrow?

Looks like LES off of Kerr lake 0b48bc22-e4d8-4c1b-92e1-af30e0770249.mp4

Def think some supercell tornadoes are possible along I40 this evening. Sunshine breaking out today has made things volatile in the Piedmont of NC.

You could see this coming earlier today. Combo of gulf stream and UL ventilation from the incoming trough. Think the window closes around 7am. After that shear and landmass will prob start to weaken it or at least level off.

True but we're talking 50 miles. Crazy close and obviously worth watching this and whether it turns NE in time.

12z Euro drops it 14mb's from now through early morning tomorrow as it approaches the SC coastline.

I think it's pretty much out of the upwelled waters now and being ventilated by the incoming trough. The core/eyewall has started to reform in the past couple hours. It may have a window this afternoon/evening where we see continued organization. Some of the intensity forecasts do show this.

Looks a lot more organized than earlier today to my eyes.

Trend appears to be a bit east at 12z on the GFS/NAM/GEM. Not reading to much into these oscillations until it regains motion tonight.

These vids are probably from the most fortified areas as well. I'm sure anything near the water is gone.

Seems unlikely to make a full landfall in Florida, however a partial eye wall landfall is not out of question... Especially further up the coastline near the space coast. Something I'm interested in down the line is how this SW trend in the short term plus the trend in weakening the 2nd trough mid-week will impact a potential NC landfall. We forget that portion of the forecast is a few days out and there is quite a bit more margin for error. My guess is this could result in a more NNE to NE recurve as opposed to total U-Turn ENE out to see. We shall see.

The models are not digging the second shortwave over the norther plains/great lakes quite as much. In fact, the trend has been that direction for several runs now. It would allow dorian to curve NNE as opposed to NE or ENE. This is obviously significant for the Carolinas.

Agreed, this isn't far off a semi-phase up the east coast. The second trough that picks up Dorian next week continues to trend stronger. If this happens, the north shift will be cemented, but it would likely result in a more NNE motion as opposed to NE and OTS. Could be significant for SC/NC/New England. There's a lot of scenarios that could come into play on this one. I honest wouldn't rule anything out at this point, other than the solution of it plowing through Florida and into the GOM. That seems unlikely as the clock continues to tick.