HKY_WX
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About HKY_WX
- Birthday 12/13/1984
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I think the idea of this being more isolated banding type snow squalls makes sense, given the setup w/ a weak disturbance rotating around a strong Arctic front. You don't see a PV Lobe this strong drop into the Great Lakes. It's a highly anomalous event. So I could definitely see some surprises (from a localized perspective). Example - 1 city get's 2 inches of snow while nothing falls 10 mins down the road.
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Just made a post on my page regarding the Euro Weeklies/Extended forecast for anyone interested. Exciting times coming for cold enthusiasts...
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Renegade sleet storm just came through west raleigh
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lol i wish. I am working from home today and he is driving me cray..... GFS looks like a good thump for western NC.
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I am unsure where the battle lines will setup regarding Rain/ZR/Sleet/Snow in NC, but the ZR band with this one is going to be legit. I was skeptical of what the models were showing with ZR back in early December as the setup didnt' really favor ZR. This one definitely does. Pretty classic HP configuration is continuing to show up on the models. There will likely be freezing rain warnings sent out on this one at some point Fri/Sat for parts of NC. Whether that features Charlotte/Raleigh, it's too early to say. That said, this one has some of the critical pieces we look for when forecasting an Icestorm in the metro areas of NC.
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Reg. You can find it at the bottom. The regular subscription is only 20 bucks/month. Worth it over the winter (Dec-Mar). The more I look at this one at 500mb, the more it looks like an old school CAD scenario. Pretty classic 50/50 low setting up. Of course, this is all contingent on the models not being too far off. Confidence will increase once we get into thur/fri.
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Euro has a classic sleet/zr sounding for Raleigh . A deep layer of sub freezing temps from sfc to about 900mb. Will be hard to scour this wedge out and wouldn't be surprised to see this wedge continue to trend stronger in the Carolinas. Courtesy of Accuweather...
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Euro is basically showing 6 hours of moderate freezing rain/sleet for Raleigh per soundings. Yikes.
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The wife and I are looking at a move somewhere north of Hillsborough in the next 2 or so years. She wants to live near the barn where she rides horses and I wanna get away from the bustle/sleet of Raleigh lol.... Looking forward to escaping the transition line that is Wake County. /:
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12z euro is around a .5 qpf of mixed precip (Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain) for RDU per accuweather pro output. Your normal run of the mill NC slop fest.
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I posted an update for anyone interested... https://m.facebook.com/TheHuffmanbarometer
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I just posted my outlook for Jan into Feb on my FB page if you're interested. It incorporates the latest Euro Weeklies and MJO projections... http://www.facebook.com/theHuffmanbarometer
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You can see the degree of 10mb temp warming near the polar latitudes on the eps between day 3 and day 10... see attached. This eventually leads to the large trough over the east on the extended eps and weeklies.. Its kind of fascinating the progression of this winter appears eerly similiar to 02/03 thus far.
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Here's an old school article on the Sunspot - AO connection. You often see this thrown into a lot of Winter Seasonal forecasts. I need to read some more recent articles on this to see what the latest prevailing research is. https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20011206/
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The developing west based weak to weak-mod Nino (from a check of the latest global SST map) has already produced a memorable STJ storm via the splitflow and +PNA pattern. Combining this with the low sun spot activity is going to lead to a memorable winter IMO. It's hard to prove the correlation at this point, but I think lower sunspot activity will lead to more SSW's in the future and -AO tendencies. If we are on the cusp of a SSW (this is traditionally hard to forecast accurately), there will likely be some record cold in January when you combine it with the PNA setup.
