HKY_WX

Here's an old school article on the Sunspot - AO connection. You often see this thrown into a lot of Winter Seasonal forecasts. I need to read some more recent articles on this to see what the latest prevailing research is. https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20011206/

The developing west based weak to weak-mod Nino (from a check of the latest global SST map) has already produced a memorable STJ storm via the splitflow and +PNA pattern. Combining this with the low sun spot activity is going to lead to a memorable winter IMO. It's hard to prove the correlation at this point, but I think lower sunspot activity will lead to more SSW's in the future and -AO tendencies. If we are on the cusp of a SSW (this is traditionally hard to forecast accurately), there will likely be some record cold in January when you combine it with the PNA setup.

Thx bud, howd it work out for you folks up there? Come at me broski!

Awesome man, we looked for him on Sat but couldn't find him in Downtown Boone.

My better half in a drift

14 in with 30 in drifts at my parents in Hickory. Crazy storm..The fam' got worried and we bailed on banner elk yesterday afternoon, after we got an airbnb refund.

Notice the low pressure is up into central AL and GA. I spoke about this a few days ago. This often happens in STJ dominate system where CAD has setup. This always changes everyone to ice except for the NW mountains. That's why these 10:1 snow ratio maps posted all week were worthless.

Holed up in Banner Elk w the fam until likely Tuesday. Ready to start measuring!

Geeze that's insanity... currently camped out here in banner elk. Still a few inches of snow on the ground from earlier in the wk.

The models changes have been mostly noise at this point, from what I've seen. I'm going with the below: Charlotte: 3 to 5inches of snow/sleet followed by .25 in freezing rain Raleigh: 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet followed by .5 in freezing rain Boone: 1 to 2 feet of snow Asheville: 8-12 inches snow/sleet Greensboro: 6-10 inches snow/sleet with a light glaze of Freezing rain The worst freezing rain will be on the transition line as always, which will run from south of Charlotte up to southern Wake County. Anyone on the 31-32 degree side of this line could see as much as an inch of freezing rain. I could see this happening in the zone from northern SC towards the Pinehurst area. My main analog continues to be Dec 4&5th 2002. The only difference is the s/w appears to be a bit further south this go around, resulting in a bit more snow/sleet vs freezing rain. Still favoring a Miller A/B hybrid, which will result in a sleet changeover for many areas.

Very reactionary from GSP. I don't know why they even issue those this far out.

I favor the Control run over the EPS. As it shows No snow for Ji and NW DC Metro.

I wouldn't cliff dive just yet, as the NAM isn't in its better range quite yet 48hrs in. Bad News: That said, it definitely displays what I've been saying for a few days. We're in early December, this is a STJ driven system (85% of it), and this is not a Miller A system. This will have some significant icing involved for some folks (IP/ZR). Those 24 inch totals were never viable outside of the NW mountains. Good News: I think concerns about precip totals are totally unfounded, as this a large amplitude wave with strong STJ connections down to the equatorial regions. There will be no shortage of QPF (2 to 3 inch totals) are likely over a large swath of the state. How much of that is Snow/Ice/Rain is the question.

Will do man, I appreciate it!

For the northern Foothills/Mountains, I think it's all systems go... My only concern for the central/southern Mountains/Foothills is whether sleet/zr mixes in and reduces totals significantly. Need to wait until we get w/in NAM range to pinpoint that. As far as SLP track, I still see this as more of a A/B hybrid type track. Wouldn't surprise me to see a renegade SLP pop a little further north on the SW corner of the wedge (Central GA/AL area???), which often happens as the STJ vort pushes east. And then jump to the southeast coast. Overall, something to keep in mind as well is if this vort can continue to trend more cutoff. That could generate some T-SN possibilities and more enhanced banding. I continue to Harken back to Dec 2002 and Feb 2004.