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About HKY_WX

  • Birthday 12/13/1984

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  • Location:
    Raleigh, NC

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  1. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Day 6/7 ish has a good look to me for a snow or mix to ice and/or rain. Pattern would support it (PNA ridge is back, troughiness over the NW atlantic, good shot of cold air this coming weekend and a string of HP's over the northern tier. Need to see some consistency in modeling over the next few days before getting too confident. Would say interior sections would fair best in this setup from a changeover perspective ( will likely be a GOM SLP up the coastline). Will go more into over the next few days if the pattern look holds. Woke up to some slush on the car tops and white rooftops here in NW Raleigh. The thaw is over folks.
  2. 1/16-1/17 Event OBS

    My neighborhood this morning.
  3. 1/16-1/17 Event OBS

    Solid snow band back over nW Raleigh again. Can confirm. Definitely accumulating type band. Could squeeze a surprise inch or two out of this in spots tonight .
  4. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Curious what kind of rates those bands in Pittsboro are putting down. Probably just light snow, but they are pretty decent on the dbz scale.
  5. 1/16-1/17 Event OBS

    Got around 6 inches here in NW Wake. Just took a walk w/ my fiancé to the gas station and it's blowing all over and still coming down nicely. Thinking we may make 6.5 or 7 by the time it ends later this evening. All in all, nothing beats a bowling ball cutoff low in the south. It's generally always a sure bet for a solid storm.
  6. 1/16-1/17 Event OBS

    It's pouring here in NW Raleigh. Geeze. We may end up with 7 or 8 if this keeps up.
  7. 1/16-1/17 Event OBS

    The temperature boundary on this one has been strange. We've been hovering around 32 all day w/ the Triad in the mid to upper 20's.
  8. 1/16-1/17 Event OBS

    I think the snow is starting to get a bit drier as of 3pm. Started off with large flakes prior to lunch and they have changed over to those smaller floaters. Still moderate snow here in Leesville. Had 3 inches an hour ago. Maybe nearing 4, but I need to verify.
  9. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Rates are going to easily overcome sfc temps as this pivots east. The NAM is showing some intense banding on the SE side of this upper low. Someone in the Mebane/Hillsborough area up to the VA border is prob going to jackpot 10-12. Raleigh looks great to me for at least 5 to 6. The euro/NAM trended last min towards keeping this cutoff and even slightly strengthening as it heads east, which will spark a SLP offshore. This is a great setup for most of NC save the coastal plain.
  10. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    I'll take 5.3 and run.
  11. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    HRRR is definitely showing some enhancement along the escarpment w/ that meso low in NW SC(SE to NW sfc upslopping winds) and some frontogensis banding along that area due to the thermal boundary/temperature difference b/n the west/east sides of the mountains. Could definitely lead to some additional forcing/vertical motion in that area tonight.
  12. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Starting around 7am, best snows early afternoon 12-3pm, tapering off after that and ending by dark.
  13. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    I think RDU will flirt w/ 32/33 for a few hours tomorrow morning, however if banding does develop like the GFS/NAM are indicating, w/ 850temps crashing to -5 to -10 after 12pm, the cold air aloft will be dragged down dynamically and temps should fall into the 20's. Not really overly concerned about temps. However, I do agree ratios in wake county will hard pressed to rise above 10:1 prior to 1 or 2 pm. If we can get some residual banding late into the afternoon, 15:1 could be possible for a couple hours w/ some light to moderate snow. However, per the GFS/NAM/RGEm, there will be a band setting up in the triad or triangle which will drop roughly .5 to .7 QPF. That area is likely to see some good rates/accumulations/ratios. Could totally see someone getting 6 - 8 inches out of that (maybe the hillsborough/roxboro area???). That said, most will likely fall in the 3 to 6 range.
  14. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    RDU down to 35 as of 8pm
  15. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    lol, I try to stay away from looking at the sfc maps too much until 36 or 48 hours if I can. This vort has a lot of rotation associated with it per the 500mb vorticity maps and it's strengthening as it heads into the TN Valley. This will be enough to spark a weak coastal low. We should see some enhancement over central/eastern NC due to this. 2 or 3 is likely. 4 to 5 is not out of the question in the lollipops.