HKY_WX

He says a lot of things.

If you're a RDU IMBY, typically in these scenarios, central NC does very well if the UL vort goes negative. This pours in the Atlantic moisture, that's why all the runs over the past few days which showed the highest totals around RDU also featured the system going negative over Tennessee. This is what happened in Jan 2000. The conjecture around the dry slot is just twitter BS imo until we know how this vort will behave. There are still some quirks to go.

It's really just a correction to reality as we get closer to the system. It matches up better now with the med range models.

This why you don't pay attention to the HRRR or RAP at this range. It just corrected its 5h about 300 miles west. Which makes sense to align with the EURO/GFS. But still....

18z EPS SLP plots. Some good agreement on a track about 50 to 75 miles off HAT. Pretty good track for central and eastern NC.

Nice tick west on the Euro to break the suppressive trend for the last few runs. There is still time for some more improvement. Most of the models for last weeks storm were way too flat with the polar jet waves and corrected all the way until we got to game time. Part of this is due to the +PNA setup. It definitely lends itself to more digging of shortwaves. Not saying that will happen here, as the synoptics of the pattern are definitely different, but there is a precedent for it. Could be beneficial for those in VA. This won't necessarily hurt NC either given how cold core the vort is.

by gametime that 3ft will be over dc lol.

Up the coast this run, which is likely in this full phase scenario.

If this works out to it's full potential, to me, it's probably unlikely to just go out to sea to that extent. It will likely go up the coast some. The models are still in the process of figuring out the phase.

Significant jump west at 5H. Let's hope we start to see some alignment among the ensembles.

That's what she said.

For those wanting to understand the synoptics of the pattern and why the GFS trended better, it's mainly related to the upper low over the northern Atlantic. In the older days, this feature was/is referred to as the New Foundland low or "50/50" low, which forms near the 50/50 lat/lon area. It's a prevalent feature during -AO patterns which features lower heights over the CONUS and northern Atlantic, while higher heights build into the northern latitudes. This upper low acts as a way to slow down the pattern and induce additional cutoff lows upstream (in this case it would be our storm). The problem is if it's too strong it will suppress or shear out any attempts at this feature. This is a common model fault especially during these types of extreme -AO patterns. It's also a reason why commonly see these SECS systems trend NW/more amped as we draw closer. It has screwed us many times in the south. It could benefit us in this case. We want to see this 50/50 low continue to trend quicker and exit faster into the Atlantic. This allows the heights over the east coast to rise and give us a better chance at a cutoff with at least a netural tilt, which will throw back Atlantic moisture.

6z Euro AI is west, OP is east.

I wouldn't crown it yet. The sample size is not very large.

This solution is pretty incredible. Its literally a piece of the PV lobe breaking off and phasing with a piece of energy in the STJ. The heights would be anomalously low for our area if it were to actually occur. Its extremely rare and also why we should understand the high bust potential of this. Let's hope it works out for a change.

Best case scenario weenie run

ICON EPS . Love the location of the HP. Generally a very good spot for SECS Miller A's.

The JMA is in our corner (aka the standard bearer).

Dec 24-26 2010 is very similar but again nothing is perfect as we learned last week. Each setup is unique in its own way. The timing on this one has to be very good. Definitely a boom/bust scenario. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2010/us1225.php

Still really close aloft.

None of the models were great 5 days out. The Euro AI was always further north and had a dry slot in eastern NC once we got inside of 48 hours.. It was way better than the GFS or ICON. The reason I know this is I looked at waaay too many model runs the last 3 days.

I only care what the Euro and Euro AI say. They led the charge with this previous one. Euro AI did especially well.

Players on the field here are much simpler. Polar jet wave diving south and phasing with STJ wave coming into the west coast this week. The icestorm pretty much locked in IMO about 48 hours out once all the waves were close to the US. So I would wait until Wednesday before getting too excited. In the meantime, enjoy your hits of model crack 4 times per day. Scenarios: BOOM: This setup works out like the Christmas storm 2009 and we have a perfect phase BUST: Nothing nada zilch. Cloudy day on Saturday

Trend gif below for the euro. Good trends but again, let's hope it doesnt go too much in this direction or it will trend too warm for eastern NC. Will have to watch it. Classic polar jet wave diving down in behind the departing cutoff over new England. Great setup for a snowstorm (especially over the mid atlantic/new england). This is more of a snow or rain setup.