HKY_WX

Smart. Mooresville might be far enough north for sleet to save the day and save you from zr.

Roanoke looks safe from zr. Prob most snow to sleet to snow.

I think it's time people from Greenville, SC - Charlotte - Concord - Burlington start prepping for a high impact system (tree damage/extended power outages/etc). I know the snow is what people want, but there will massive power outages in that corridor. Still not sure how far east that will extend. The NAM seems to peak RDU's ZR around .4 to .5 which is enough for damage but not like .75-1.00 ... I hope I'm wrong and sleet saves the day.

IMO the main prob is the 50/50 low is swinging out of the NE/New Foundland Area a bit too fast (That's why I was harping on this a few days ago). In a true SE snowstorm, it tends to hold longer in that area forcing/suppressing the systems over the east coast.

Here's the prob' for the snow crowd. The 500mb Low is far enough south initially, however it starts to lift NE too soon instead of swinging through the piedmont/coastal plain. With a stacked UL low, you just get too much warming aloft in this scenario for a pure snow event. The best hope is we get enough overrunning/lift ahead of the system before the mid levels start to warm up as the low approaches. In most of the state, the mid levels start to torch after 12pm Sunday.

If there is indeed 1/2"+ zr in the triangle. Will be an interesting night sun night when the SLP barrels through with 20-30 mph winds.

We all have a scorned lover it seems lol.

Id def call this a trend.

This is true. For RDU to stay all frozen we need the track to be over the sounds/outer banks as opposed to over greenville/somwhere near there. The models seem pretty intent on driving it inland over eastern NC which sucks for us. The only hope is they are overdoing it a bit. That said, it's not really a huge deal if the precip is mostly over by the time the SLP/dryslot move over. The ICON drops close to 1 inch of precip by 7pm Sun when we dip above freezing.

I'm sure there will be some mixing in VA. But it's the 84 hour NAM. I wouldn't take everything Mr Pillow say's to heart.

The NAM is a realistic projection given the strength of the upper low. It's not truly a miller A if you look closely. There will be a surface/mid level lp reflection over the northern deep south which will throw those SE winds aloft (thus warming up mid-levels and causing sleet/zr). Still trying to see a way RDU doesn't changeover to rain but it's looking likely for a least a few hours given the strength of the coastal front. I do think it's possible we continue to see a trend SE due to the anomalous nature of the projection. It's not often you see Myrtle Beach get ZR and Raleigh changeover to rain. Makes me inclined to think there are some additional shifts to come and the models may be underestimating the cold dome/depth of the cold air.

About 24 hrs from sounding the warning bell on the ice. Really has nasty potential.

The slp doesn't really move in a str8 line. It tends to jump along thermal boundaries/,fronts. I wouldmt focus too much on that.

Nothing like the JMA/84hr NAM combo' to still my heart... Next Mr Pillow will endorse this storm.

NAM has rdu's dewpoint at -2 at hour 84. If that's not an exaggeration that's pretty crazy.

The clown maps are unreliable in general this far out. Once we get to Friday/Saturday I would take them more seriously. The FRAM technique maps for ZR inside 2 or 3 days can be used IMO with decent confidence.

Cant recall a system where it began with ZR along the coastal plain of SC and NC and eventually changed over to rain in the Piedmont/Triangle. I honestly think anyone in the climo favored areas (NW Wake over to Durham/Chapel Hill/Hillsboro) are pretty safe from a changeover. SE Wake towards Johnston county is a different story. Though it's prob too early to get into these details. I'm getting ahead of myself.

Setup reminds me quite a bit of dec 2002. Main difference is there is a stronger impulse aloft and it is cutoff. This would likely result in some backlash snow over the interior and a warm up over the coastal plain. In contrast, dec 2002 ended as 32 and freezing rain/rain for most people.

Hilarious how these snow maps line up with climo and history. I can't tell you how many times Hickory got a 10 inch storm (aka 8 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet) while the the western foothills and anyone above say 2000 ft got the 12-18 inches of mostly snow.

The upper low over Maine is trending south as well, which is a good trend (if you want the HP to lock in). That would essentially force a Miller B SLP track. It will also force the s/w over the plains/Miss Valley to weaken/shear out a bit which would make it a more suppressed solution.

ICON & the GFS seem to be trending a bit stronger/slower with the shortwave coming through tomorrow night/Friday which cuts off offshore. That can help act as an additional force to keep our HP locked in and force the SLP to redevelop instead of coming inland.

Just from experience/climo, NAM looks like snow to ice to me. Has negative dewpoints over extreme NE NC at hour 84 which is pretty rare and gives you an idea of how the CAD could be legit' with this. (If you believe the NAM lol)

The CAD (if its strong/pronounced enough) would normally assist in dictating the slp track. Thats why its tough to make definitive statements at this range due to modelling error. If the wedge trends weaker (aka the cold push/HP isnt as strong) the SLP will naturally shift west towards the piedmont. All the players on the field naturally bounce off each other. Based on the current GFS' "projection" of the low level cold dome, the slp would likely bounce off the coastline in a Miller A/B hybrid scenario (not plow right through the piedmont like the bliz of 93). I think by Thursday we'll be zeroing in on the answer to this question.

Trend is pretty clear on the shortwave out west. It's slower every run and further west. This run is basically a Miller B Snow to Icestorm