HKY_WX

Euro AI is out and it's pretty similar. Main difference is timing a bit slower on the baha low. Overall impact on real weather is negligible as far as QPF output. The ultimate big dog would be a full ejection of the baha low with the PJ wave coming in behind. This would essential result in a more prolonged version of the storm. Also likely increase QPF and a SLP closer to the Atlantic coast/warmer air aloft. Not usually the most likely scenario. It's normally a partial ejection (95% of the time).

Just search for Allan Huffman on Twitter.

You should be in this scenario. I honestly don't think it's too early to say that. Do yourself a favor and get ahead of the crowd. Back up heat, batteries, water, etc.

Classic overrunning. There will likely be a finger of precip that pushes out ahead of the main round due to the forcing aloft. When you have a dense cold dome at the surface and a screaming Jetstream at 300mb, it doesn't take much to generate precipitation. Notice it coincides with the surface front screaming in from the parent HP.

Yep. Allan is freaking out about this one and that's rare when it comes to these systems. This one could be epic. We're long overdue to be honest.

They may be right from a wish casting perspective in regards to the northern extent of the precip, but that's it. This only can go so far north with a 1050mb high sitting in Iowa starting Friday lol. This is not your average setup, it's very anomalous and will likely produce some very anomalous results.

Only difference is the parent high is much stronger. So more snow and sleet in NC (Think 20 degrees vs 30 degrees). It would move that ZR swath to central GA - midlands of SC.

A lot of that will be sleet on the ZR map. Especially as you get farther north. Don't get me wrong though, those who are in the primary ZR zone will be smashed if this comes to fruition.

Best analog on this is Dec 2002... by far. Only difference is it's mid January meaning the Parent high has much colder air to work with. So a larger front end thump of snow/sleet followed by ZR. The transition zone will be much larger as well due to the depth of the cold air. I would like to get the STJ wave onshore (Think tomorrow night) before we get too excited, as the timing and overall size of the storm will be dependent on how much of that baha low ejects. Regardless, it will act to turn the upper levels from the southwest and put us in the right rear entrance region of the upper jet as soon as Friday. This will mean rising air and convergence, so an early start to the precip is likely given the isentropic lifting (cold dome building in and strong forcing moving in overhead from the southwest). Dec 2002 dropped close to 2 inches of precip, which is the potential of this one if we get a full ejection of the baha low. Will get more specific as we near, but definitely make plans for long term power outages and cold if you think you'll be in the ZR zone.

.25 in here in Franklinton

As wow said, no words needed on this one.... Like when a 10 walks in the room. But it is a Miller A/B hybrid. So we will likely battle ice or a changeover in NC. Classic split flow pattern out west. STJ wave with Arctic HP in place. Still a long way out. Would like to get this one inside of 5 days before getting overly excited. Checkout president's day 2 storm back in 2023 for a pattern comparison. But colder.

Regardless of the other indicies, the -AO is always the savior for us. Many times over, when it dips down good things always happen around here. Pattern suppression for the win.

Good burst right now

Prob 1/2" here in Franklinton with flurries and still some periods of -sn

Lol. I still like cold and snow.

This sounds like my life right now. Add in working from home and it's chaos.

32.3 here in Franklinton. Light snow right now. Has been off and on light snow. Got a dusting currently. WIll be interesting to see how long we can keep it going this evening.

It's quickly reorganizing but going to run out of water before it can ramp back up too much.

It will be interesting to see if the ocean starts creeping up on that cam as the winds switch north.

I'm assuming it's just ESE of that location. It's facing the ocean, so that wind is probably coming from the ENE switching to N soon

That 50 mile wide swath of the eyewall will carve a path through the island unlike we've seen before. I bet satellite pictures in a few days will show it almost like a tornado path. Will be sad.

I think I am less worried this go around given the elevation. he can likely avoid the surge pretty easily down there. As long as he's in a reinforced concrete building he should be fine.

I can't convince myself to sign up for TikTok, even to watch streams of the strongest Hurricane landfall in history.

Where is he located?

I'm sure Josh or another chaser has a handheld barometer onsite. If so, we could have ground truth of the strongest or 2nd strongest landfall ever in the Atlantic basin. At least in recorded history.