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HKY_WX

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by HKY_WX

  1. I think I am less worried this go around given the elevation. he can likely avoid the surge pretty easily down there. As long as he's in a reinforced concrete building he should be fine.
  2. I can't convince myself to sign up for TikTok, even to watch streams of the strongest Hurricane landfall in history.
  3. I'm sure Josh or another chaser has a handheld barometer onsite. If so, we could have ground truth of the strongest or 2nd strongest landfall ever in the Atlantic basin. At least in recorded history.
  4. Per Twitter, he settled on a concrete masonry building up on a hill. Def safe from surge i'm sure, but will be battling the wind. There's a chance he might catch the 2nd strongest Hurricane landfall ever. Think about that for a second. Unreal.
  5. Mind boggling. There are certain systems that defy the norms. This is def one of them. Not sure people are prepared for the scenes that will be coming out of Jaimaca. They've dogged the bullet so many times. Not this one.
  6. Not sure how much lower pressure the atmosphere can support down there. Assuming it can go close to 900mb. Just a sick setup. The depth of the warm water in that area is always off the chart.
  7. The eye appears to have gotten a bit smaller on Sat. Not sure if the vdm will confirm or not.
  8. 12z EC/AI/Google Deep mind are pretty deadset on SW Jamaica (Would put the mid-point near White House, Jamaica). I don't see much variance among them today. Seems to be the spot.
  9. I'm not sure there are many good comparisons on this one other than Maria/PR and Dorian/Bahamas. Everyone knows how those turned out.
  10. Rainfall wise, the entire island is screwed which is the biggest killer in tropical systems. That portion will be pretty epic. The wind damage (at least the extreme portion of it) will likely be confined to the central and western end of the island.
  11. Kinda looks like the turn has happened or is in the process of happening now. Josh is camped out somewhere near Treasure beach i think, he usually has a good feel for where these things landfall. I like that area but just a bit west (I'm assuming he's trying to get in the eastern eyewall).
  12. Like most of these turns North, it will likely stall, wobble, and then start drifting North before accelerating.
  13. That's a good point, but most canes normally approach Jamaica from the east on a westward heading. At that trajectory it lends itself to the frictional land effects and wobbles away from the island. This one will be heading north as its caught up in the trough and the angle of approach will make that scenario unlikely. It's obviously still possible though. The only beneficial factor wind wise would be some small weakening on approach but rainfall wise they are completely effed.
  14. This is my neck of the woods. We had a little over 5.
  15. Mod to Hvy snow up here in Franklinton. I think we might get up to another 2" out of these bands today. Crazy rates.
  16. Moderate snow again here. We will likely pick up another inch+ out of this
  17. Congrats to the guys out west. We're getting some flurries here again this Morn. Sitting at 23 right now. I think I will be officially ready for spring after the next 2 days of working 2 jobs, working from home and daycare.
  18. 22.1. Flurries still flying. About 11 hours of flakes.
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