HKY_WX

1.5 here in Franklin county. Roads are a mess VID_20250110_205149.mp4

Hrr seems to have a good handle. Close to 1" here in Franklin county.

Meanwhile, at lake crabtree

He's either high or it's lake effect snow. I'm leaning towards high.

Kuchera method is probably more accurate representation. But yea, the NAM related suite (NAM/HRRR/etc) have slowly moved that band from VA down into northern NC run by run. It's much more similar to the euro/RGEM from the last few days which has always made more sense. i85 special.

Where in rdu are u? I'm up b/n Franklinton and Creedmoor now Feel better about my spot vs the old days in the Crabtree area.

I put this out a few days ago. Will stick with it. I would prob add some sleet and zr to the transition zones though. And extend the 3 to 6 along the nc va border to the va coast.

I'm going to participate in weeniecast phase 1. The HRRR has heavy sleet/mixed precip all the way down to Montgomery AL - Columbus GA late tonight.

Something like this

Euro has a nice band over NE NC/SE VA as the SLP starts to deepen off of NC. Something to watch, as it could lead to some higher totals in that area. You can see a reflection aloft at 850mb developing offshore NC on the Euro. This will likely enhance totals in that band due to some moisture advection/lift/dendrite growth. Not sure it would qualify to be declared a "deformation zone" but an area of enhancement.

I'm still a bit skeptical at the ZR numbers given the SLP not being a Miller B but more of a Miller A.

Seems like there's def going to be a solid band of ZR somewhere along the transition line from N GA to Eastern NC. From experience you can usually cut these numbers in half. So .25 to .3 is possible in some places.

Euro has 4.5 for Franklinton. Would take that in a heart beat. Has lined up with the RGEM which has been really consistent.

Weenie phase 1 has commenced. About 12 hours later than forcasted.

Late phase on the euro. Too late to benefit for Eastern nc.

Christmas storm was a full classic phase that the models caught very last minute. Def tops on the list of great storms in hky for me.

This will be an impressive storm for Arkansas.

I agree, if you look at the likely SLP track. the above makes the most sense to me. Just fits climatology. There's reason GSP has WSWs and RDU is showing 1 to 2 inches (they are historical pretty conservative). This isn't a major storm but if we manage to screw up and not get a few inches out of it we are truly cursed.

NC-IMBY post. The models continue to key in on a band setting up over i85. Whoever find themselves in that band will likely be where the highest totals fall in NC. Outside of the southwest mountains, the RDPS has consistently shown the highest total along i77 from Statesville to Huntersville (roughly 5 inches).

Weenie phase 1 is about commence tonight.

We gotta ton of needle ice coming up from the ground in our yard. Shows how cold ground temps are right now

Again guys, when the GFS and NAM get a clue on the SLP track evolution, you will see a similar scenario as the Euro/RGEM evolve with them. Just a bit juicer QPF. The end result will likely be the EURO with a bit more precip totals. I would say .25 to .5. The only thing I could see screwing up SNOW totals is IP in the eastern edges of the snow growth zones.

Confident Weenie forecast prediction. 10PM Tonight: We'll be getting closer to the NAM range. It will trend south with the SLP to match up with the EURO and show solid NC snow hit. The weenies will freak out and start buying sleds. 10PM Thursday: The NAM QPF will start to decrease a bit to come in line with the EURO/GFS. Weenies will then starting drinking again and curse about the snow drought. 10PM Friday: It will start to snow resulting in a general 1 to 3 inches across the area and weenies will be rejoice making snow angels talking about how great the models were.

I'll qualify this as IMBY - NC related. Given the wave is shearing out it seems the expectation should be for QPF around .25 to .5. The question then arises as to precip type. One thing to note, is the GFS has continually taken the SLP further NW than the euro, which changes everyone over to zr or rain. It literally takes from Augusta GA to Hatteras vs the Euro which has it near Albany GA and exiting near Charleston SC. Those are large differences. I would note, given the setup and climatology, the Euro would be far more likely scenario. Given the limited precip, thermals will be huge in this situation. It could be the difference between 4 inches of fluff and a 1/4" of sleet. Not saying compromise/middle road isn't possible either.