HKY_WX

The overall structure looks solid right now. Not seeing any issues of shear or dry air like last night. I think it's all systems go until about 10am tomorrow and then it will level out and slowly weaken. That said the damage may already be done. The amount of weakening is probably being overplayed too IMO.

Here's a good map of the OHC with the track overlayed.

Definitely listen to the local officials, not some weenies on a message board.

It's definitely picking up a bit of pace and heading NE. It's feeling the tug of the trough. This is also apparent in the prominent banding to the NE. As it clears the Yucatan completely and enters the extremely deep/warm waters of the loop current, this where it could reach that 2nd max potential. This is where Katrina built up its immense surge. If you're in the cone and near the coastline, get da hell out. The west coast of FL may have never seen a storm like this one.

Euro has peak intensity around 10am tomorrow. Before leveling off and then slowly weakening tomorrow afternoon/evening on approach. So we may have another interesting night lol.

I think i'll go with landfall near Anna Marie FL. Pressure 935mb. Wind Speed 130mph. Peak surge from Anna Marie to Siesta Key up to 20ft. Perhaps isolated areas with more. Enough water is going to be pushed into Tampa Bay that areas of Pinellas county will still have major problems. Perhaps more so on the Bay side.

That's a real chitty radar to be basing anything on.

I think it may have ingested some dry air off the yucatan landmass as the eyewall got extremely close yesterday evening. As it moves NE and gets into the loop current it will likely have the opportunity to restrengthen today. Kinda scary the HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all zeroed in on TB at 00z tonight...

The eye is definitely going through some cycling right now just based off of the satellite.

There is a bit of dry air on the far eastern semi-circle over the Yucatan. I'm thinking we will level off tonight and the pressures might tick up. Sometimes this kinda thing will generate an ERC. My guess is we make another run tomorrow as it traverses the loop current.

It's de facto and baked into the cake that Milton will weaken from its current state. These #'s are only possible in perfect environmental circumstances (low shear, high oceanic heat content, etc). The Southern GOM, Northern Caribbean, and loop current are areas where there have many historic bombogenesis events. The Euro AI and GFS both have a solid handle on Helene. Both have a good environment for Milton up to Landfall. I don't see it heading towards a hostile environment per se. It's just a more traditional one. The only saving grace I can see at this point is the rather small size, but these storms tend to build size over time as they navigate the open waters. This will be a bad/catastrophic one unfortunately. Obviously a bit too early to pin point if it will hit Tampa Bay directly or just to the north/south of the city. Stay tuned.

Wind wise Hugo was worse. Flood wise, definitely in the past 50 years. Probably more.

There's been many late Feb and March Ice events. It's a non issue, at least in NC.

I'd take anything at this point.

It is also pretty amazing how well it's been forecasted by the weekly cfs for the past month or so.

This is normally an amazing winter weather pattern for NC, climo wise. It's the best pattern printed up by the models in many years from a snow and ice standpoint. Hopefully we don't screw it up.

And this is why you guys are weenies.

Yeah just noticed this. Long way to go, especially for new England.

Eyewall is starting to look like a major cane now on radar. I wish the timing of this was 12hrs later so I could sleep.

Water vapor is often good in these scenarios when you're watching eyewall dynamics. I think we're about 2 or 3 hours from it truly clearing out.

Wouldn't take much of a leap to get there.

It's probably a bit premature to judge the Eye size. Eye is still clearing out/obscured and looks slightly elliptical on radar. I'd wait a few more hours to see how it matures.

Radar looks pretty classic. Only difference is the eyewall doesn't have that ring of fire look you see in high end cat 4 and 5. Can she make it before running out of water? We'll see. Cat 3 is pretty much a given at this point.

Water temp at this buoy 112m NW of Tampa is 88F. This is about 2 to 3* above the August average for that location. Combined with the low shear and upper level trough enhancement, pretty ideal setup up until landfall. Not sure I would expect any weakening. In fact, this looks pretty ideal for some explosive strengthening tonight. Perhaps more so than even forecasted. Not looking too good. If we see anymore trends west TLH could see some wild winds. NDBC - Station 42036 Recent Data (noaa.gov)

Seeing a polar vortex or piece of it over the lakes is pretty impressive. This can sometimes produce strong vorts/clippers for our area. There's a lot of possibilities, but I don't see anything until after this upcoming system. The ski areas are about to cash in big time.