HKY_WX

This is honestly the most realistic scenario among the models. I am going with the below:

Qpf is what accumulates. Evap cooling is accounted for.

Euro tends to be a bit weak on qpf from my experience. This certainly isn't a major system but the vort should be strong enough to spit out. 25 to .5 qpf in nc.

We're starved dogs

I'm gonna hug that model

We bought a house about 5 miles west of Franklinton 6 months ago. Big difference at my new spot vs places like Fuquay or Clayton.

I guess when I was a kid my 6"+ in hickory and is now 2" of slop in Raleigh.

The euro and gfs, if you just take the general blend, would be a pretty solid hit from southern TN northern MS/AL/GA into NC Mountains/Foothills. Probably 6+ for those avoiding Sleet/ZR.

If you look where that SLP track is sitting (that's honestly all you need to pay attention to at this point). If it's in interior SC then sleet/freezing rain is a given. That's pretty far northwest and likely over done a bit if you look at the ensembles and euro. It's a tick east towards the other models which is good news if you like snow.

Yeah. It could be a situation where it does transition back to snow at the tail end. But anything within 20 or 30 miles of the sc coastline usually means mixing in the triangle. That said specifics this far out is prob pointless

Took a look last night at the model verification scores (Projected SLP vs actual). The best ones in the 3 to 5 day range have consistently been the GFS ENS and EC ENS. Both of those are lined up pretty good. GFS being a little more westward. I like a track from GOM to south of Destin then tracking over southern GA into the Atlantic. From there a track just offshore. Snow wise this favors the northern deep south and western/northern NC area. Central NC would likely be an initial push of snow then over to ice (or rain depending on how far east you are due to the coastal front). With regard to NC only, that would be probably mostly snow in NC Foothills/Mountains over to Winston Salem and then tailing off as you go ENE in NC. The transition line will be somewhere in between. AKA the usual Bullchit.

Just from past experience, these runs have the look of a model attempting to resolve a phase or cut off low. I've seen this too many times to ignore. I wouldn't be surprised to see them slowly trend more amped on the backend as the SLP moves towards the Atlantic. It's almost impossible for the models to sort out the various Canadian shortwaves this far out. Given the Atlantic pattern, it's pretty likely this will bomb out, but as far as where remains to be seen. Could be way out into the Atlantic, or it could be off of NC. Doesn't necessarily mean we will benefit from it.

As you can see below from this view. The Low over the Atlantic will force everything from Canada underneath it. Which increases the odds of a phase and large cutoff system. Could be great for us or could be not so great if we change to rain.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this trend towards a more phased/cut off look given the strong cut off low over the northeast. This really slows down the flow and promotes phasing/cutoffs upstream. We haven't had a setup like this over the Atlantic in many years. The only issue is we don't have a major/classic CAD setup so we will run the risk of a change to rain outside of western NC. That said, the degree of cold air ahead of this system is pretty strong. Will be a fun one to track this week for sure.

This is a solid setup for snow and ice in NC. Obviously not a major storm but solid.

Euro ensemble mean is about .25 average across NC for Fri/Sat. That is probably the low end in my opinion. This looks like a classic in-situ wedge storm where we start off as a burst of snow and then change to a mixed bag. It could obviously trend a bit stronger or weaker, but for now it looks likely for at least some decent/measurable wintery weather. Beggars cant be choosers after the last few years.

32* Here in franklinton. Still got freezing rain for the moment. Drove my son to school and there's nothing once you get down to the wake county line.

Nice pics

Generally this referrs to the NC Mountain valleys, foothills, and NW/Northern Piedmont and NC/VA border areas along the interior.

Definitely a noticable trend south amongst the models with the HP system. i think the Cold air is pretty strong on this one. I like the CAD areas getting some ice on this one.

Most significant change overnight was the models with the quick bend east now. I'm thinking more along the lines of Siesta Key area now. This will speed up landfall as well. Probably later this evening. I'll stick to roughly 135mph. Pressure will probably head up toward 935 to 940mb. That said, I believe the weakening is being overplayed a bit.

It's hard to comprehend these pressure numbers were throwing around only 30hrs from landfall

Yeah, the calculation factors in the depth of the warmer waters. I'm assuming the shelf waters are just excluded.

Those are great points. It is to a point where even if all systems are go, it may already be maxed out from an atmospheric perspective.

I'll think we'll be surprised just how strong it is. To me it has a more impressive appearance than yesterday.