HKY_WX
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Everything posted by HKY_WX
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Will be interesting to see how this continues to trend. Pretty massive changes aloft for the euro 72hrs out.
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Sunday is close. Trend is our friend
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Now you can see why those 10:1 maps are chit in these marginal setups. That said, my interest is peaked for this evening. It will be dark and this week deform band associated with the ul will shift east over the triangle. Def could see some decent rates for a few areas. I predict someone will get lucky and see a few inches
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For those in the triangle and east, whomever finds themselves in this band tomorrow evening will likely get 3 to 4 hours of accumulating snow (1-3 inches)
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I wouldn't give up yet out west. There will be a nice band setting up in the morning in response to the cutoff UL at 500mb and 850mb, which will pivot east. This band will be the primary accumulation producer outside the mtns.
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There's a nice cutoff 850 low over eastern nc friday night. Should provide a nice band of snow over central nc. Exciting trends on the nam tonight for the triangle.
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Outside of the mtns and va border, the triad is prob the best spot.
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Warm inversion in the Lee sucks lol. Remember that many times in hky. Ral looks like a classic front end dusting to sleer/rain with a backend inch or two. These 10:1 maps are worthless if you live below 3000ft. I'd stick to the ferrier method for a system like this. This will be purely rate driven outside of the mountains and VA/NC border.
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10:1ratio maps are prob pretty useless considering this will be marginal below 850mb. Still, the dynamics will support some banding and clusters of higher amounts. Def will be a hit or miss type of event
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Definitely like the foothills and western Piedmont for a mixed bag as of now. Will need a continued cold trend to get the triangle in the game. Still time for trends in either direction
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Given the amplitude of the incoming sub tropical wave and the increasingly (trending) stronger confluent setup over the northeast, someone is likely to see a very high impact ip/zr storm in the mid Atlantic. Whether its central VA or central/western NC, still too early to say.
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Trend is most important here. Definitely liking this one from an ice perspective in the usual spots.
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The 500mb low over New England is a good sign for day 4. This will back up the flow and promote a cutoff/more negative tilting trough. Models have a tendency to play catch up in these scenarios.
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Looks like the eye has most cleared out on WV Sat. Also some explosive CDO in the NE Eyewall. Possibly some land frictional impacts as it makes landfall.
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I wouldn't surprise me either. I'm not sure they have been tested quite like they're about to be tested after the COE redesigned them post-Katrina. Unreal we have a rapidly strengthening (Likely Major) Hurricane heading directly for them. How 2020
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When the Levee breaks, Moma you got to move.... LZ
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Not comparing the systems in that context. It's been a while since a formidable hurricane took a path this close (or directly over) New Orleans.
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Makes me wonder what kind of impact this will have on the New Orleans Levees. Coming in at a simliar angle to Katrina, just a bit further west.
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Definitely strengthening at the moment
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Day 10 is very close to a Hazel scenario with caribbean tropic trouble and a potential negative tilt through/ cutoff over the Ohio Valley. Something to watch at least.
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Definitely don't see any indications of shear and the SST's are more than warm enough. Agree with the above sentiments that this regains Cat 4 status tomorrow sometime.
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Agreed, I think we'll see some significant intensification tonight/tomorrow.
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Delta has that "look" this morning. IMO it looks more organized exiting the Yucatan.
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TCHP in the Caribbean is off the charts.
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Quite the hellacious lead band just came through here in Raleigh. Heavy rain and gusty winds.
