HKY_WX

The primary trend that led this in a positive direction is the Polar Vortex over Canada. Notice how the heights are trending west a bit. That allows the polar jet wave over Minnestoa/Dakotas to drop in behind the STJ wave. This promotes a more negative trough access(aka the warm moist firehouse is now pointed NNE instead of ENE). It doesn't take much to change the QPF shield in this scenario given it is mostly dependent on overrunning and an isentropic lift scenario. This also lends credit to the idea when Arctic Airmasses drop-down out of Canada they tend to move like a bowling ball and error a bit west on the models.

00z Euro Ens has been the best performing initialization run/model in Jan verification data. So this is definitely a positive step.

Gfs trend for the current new england system. Each run is valid for 7pm Sun.

Thanks man. I would like to see what happens with the models around 84 hours out. Thats when the prior system started trending NW as well as the one about to impact New England. From a Raleigh perspective, we don't need a large shift. About 100 miles or so. For western NC it will take a bigger shift obviously. Most systems either favor one or the other. This one obviously favors i95 over i85.

Look at the stamp. It's 120 hours. This will likely change. I actually am glad Wilmington is in the jackpot right now lol. I've see this movie too many times. I always hope for Forest Gump to dump Jenny but he never does.

Basically 1 inch of QPF(rain) = 10 inches of snow for a general 10:1 ratio (which is standard in most places except the south because we suck at snow). If it's 15:1 then every tenth of an inch equals 1.5 inches of snow. Which is probably more likely in this scenario on the NW fringes.

At 5h, the RGEM looks poised for a big dog at 84 hours.

If this materializes, I would expect ratios on the NW fringes to be in the 15 to 20:1 range.

I would like to see the Euro climb on board, but seeing the trends with it and the AI version give me some comfort. The AI version is a bit later in getting the system into the east, which actually helps interior sections as it allows the PV over Canada to swing out a bit and relax.

I actually searched for some verification #'s that included the ICON but couldn't locate any. Prob because it sucks.

Gfs has trend almost to the ggem evolution at 6z tonight. Need euro to hope on board for me to believe it completely

ILM jackpot lol.

After getting a look at the 12z Euro AI, there's a bit of encouragement. Just need to get this wave out west to continue digging southwest. That will sharpen up the trough and get that overrunning moisture/firehose pointed more NNE instead of ENE. The margin on this one is very small and it wouldn't take much to be back in the game. The models giveth and the models taketh away.... But the models do sometimes giveth back...

More recent verification score for Day 5 SLP. 00z Euro Ens mean is king apparently. 00z Euro Ens mean: 8.47 8.5 00z Euro Control 8.3 12z GFS Ens Mean 8.2 12z GFS Control 8.0 00z GFS Ens Mean 7.9 00z Ukmet 7.9 00z GFS Control 7.5 00z Canadian 7.3 Show Replies

Some recent model performance. ACC (Model vs Reality/Reanalysis) at day 5 for 500mb. ECMWF = 1 CMC = 2 UKMET = 3 GFS = Distant 4th

Trend gif for the Sunday system in the Northeast. Something to keep in mind. It's just now within 4 or so days for that one. Specifically focus on the s/w over Colorado.

2 real players on the field. #1 is the Northern Branch. It will be favorable for most of next week (less so the further out you go into next week). With the PNA ridge being so strong , the tendency will be for the models to underestimate the how far south shortwaves (aka upper level disturbances/vorticity) associated with the polar jet dive south. From experience you usually see the models resolve this as you get inside of 5 days. If we do see a bit more digging, then it will likely pop a weak low in the GOM and (Depending on how much it trends) would favor a suppressed overruning system over the deep south and central/eastern NC. #2 is the cutoff STJ pacific system that is trending slower. This is likely not to come into play till later next week. How the northern jet interacts with that and how much cold air will be left is important to contemplate as to whether that could potentially be snow, ice, or rain. This could be a classic case of pacific moisture chasing a retreating cold air HP. I would favor in-situ CAD/Ice over western NC for that system. See the trends below for the last several runs on the GFS. Notice the Pacific system is trending slower and the Northern jet is starting to trend a bit better.

First 2 wks of march are often some of our best chances. On next week, the euro and gfs are notoriously bad at resolving shortwaves in the southwest. Until they agree on when it kicks out, there will continue to be wild Swings.

Poof it's gone lol. Will take a few days to figure out if this is a legit threat or not.

To those worrying about rain. I think the margin for error on the models here will be more towards the east given the degree of cold. This airmass is Siberian in nature due to the +PNA/Cross Polar flow. It's been a while since we've seen a HP quite like this sitting over the Plaines. Not saying it can't/won't be ice, but I think an OTS solution is more likely than an Apps cutter, for example.

Can't see past this frame, but kinda surprised there's not some kind of weak surface reflection in the gulf at 168 given the jet amplification. The +PNA is pretty extreme, so it wouldn't take much to have a shortwave dig farther southwest than current advertised. It will be something to keep an eye on. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025011312/ec-fast_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

Roxboro got 3 to 4. Snow capital of the "triangle".

More zr in the triangle than I expected to be honest. Nam/gfs were too warm aloft for the lat couple days but did call the changeover. A blend of the euro and gfs would have worked pretty well.

I have a 4 year old boy and he's loving it. The weather genes run strong in my family. My brother is the "great" RaleighWx. "great" was said with sibling sarcasm.