HKY_WX

ICON would likely be the worst ice storm in the history of the Carolinas. Devestating. only real savior for us could be sleet at this point given how cold the sfc temps will be.

The main difference in the models overnight was the piece of energy over Alberta. It is acting as a kicker, scooping out the baha low and phasing in behind it. This allows the SLP to gain some latitude and get into the interior deep south before transferring offshore NC (This will happen due to the cold air physics). Pretty much a classic Miller B vs the more Miller A setup we were seeing 24 hours ago. For a snow scenario in the south, you ideally want that PV lob to be sitting over New England vs southern Canada. This will bring more WAA aloft (aka more ZR/IP). It could also setup a screw zone in the area around/outside the CAD pocket. (Or non-screw zone if you like have heat/power). NC IMBY -- Since this will be a 48 hour event, the hope for snow in NC, per my thinking yesterday, is we get a wave of WAA snow/overrunning far out ahead of the main SLP. This would allow for some snow before the WAA aloft kicks in as the SLP draws near. Otherwise this will be sleet/ZR fest for the favored areas. Highly skeptical this will be anything other an frozen/freezing precip in the NC CAD areas.

3 days of watching the correlation coefficient radar. Fml

I think the 00z Thursday models (Tomorrow night) runs will be a good time to start thinking more about details (ICE vs SNOW). That's when the Baha wave will be close to shore and the HP is getting into southern Canada.

Just for posterity.

This is just complete model porn if you've researched and tracked these things for 25 years. Just absolutely SICK looking 500mb chart. I have NEVER seen one look this good for our area (GA/SC/NC) from just a general winter storm perspective, regardless of where you find yourself in the precip type category. Definitely soak in this next week.

Don't' go chasing shortwaves, please stick with the clown maps and Bastardi quotes you're used to.

Brick, just post the kuchera snowfall map. That takes into account thermals.

What map are you referring to?

For those in NC. Highly unlikely this storm will be all snow outside of the northern Mountains. Those hoping for that will likely be disappointed. Just the nature of CAD overrunning events drawing from STJ moisture. The best bet is we get such a strong front end thump that by the time it changes over it doesn't matter anymore. That has happened many times in the past.

Euro AI is out and it's pretty similar. Main difference is timing a bit slower on the baha low. Overall impact on real weather is negligible as far as QPF output. The ultimate big dog would be a full ejection of the baha low with the PJ wave coming in behind. This would essential result in a more prolonged version of the storm. Also likely increase QPF and a SLP closer to the Atlantic coast/warmer air aloft. Not usually the most likely scenario. It's normally a partial ejection (95% of the time).

Just search for Allan Huffman on Twitter.

You should be in this scenario. I honestly don't think it's too early to say that. Do yourself a favor and get ahead of the crowd. Back up heat, batteries, water, etc.

Classic overrunning. There will likely be a finger of precip that pushes out ahead of the main round due to the forcing aloft. When you have a dense cold dome at the surface and a screaming Jetstream at 300mb, it doesn't take much to generate precipitation. Notice it coincides with the surface front screaming in from the parent HP.

Yep. Allan is freaking out about this one and that's rare when it comes to these systems. This one could be epic. We're long overdue to be honest.

They may be right from a wish casting perspective in regards to the northern extent of the precip, but that's it. This only can go so far north with a 1050mb high sitting in Iowa starting Friday lol. This is not your average setup, it's very anomalous and will likely produce some very anomalous results.

Only difference is the parent high is much stronger. So more snow and sleet in NC (Think 20 degrees vs 30 degrees). It would move that ZR swath to central GA - midlands of SC.

A lot of that will be sleet on the ZR map. Especially as you get farther north. Don't get me wrong though, those who are in the primary ZR zone will be smashed if this comes to fruition.

Best analog on this is Dec 2002... by far. Only difference is it's mid January meaning the Parent high has much colder air to work with. So a larger front end thump of snow/sleet followed by ZR. The transition zone will be much larger as well due to the depth of the cold air. I would like to get the STJ wave onshore (Think tomorrow night) before we get too excited, as the timing and overall size of the storm will be dependent on how much of that baha low ejects. Regardless, it will act to turn the upper levels from the southwest and put us in the right rear entrance region of the upper jet as soon as Friday. This will mean rising air and convergence, so an early start to the precip is likely given the isentropic lifting (cold dome building in and strong forcing moving in overhead from the southwest). Dec 2002 dropped close to 2 inches of precip, which is the potential of this one if we get a full ejection of the baha low. Will get more specific as we near, but definitely make plans for long term power outages and cold if you think you'll be in the ZR zone.

.25 in here in Franklinton

As wow said, no words needed on this one.... Like when a 10 walks in the room. But it is a Miller A/B hybrid. So we will likely battle ice or a changeover in NC. Classic split flow pattern out west. STJ wave with Arctic HP in place. Still a long way out. Would like to get this one inside of 5 days before getting overly excited. Checkout president's day 2 storm back in 2023 for a pattern comparison. But colder.

Regardless of the other indicies, the -AO is always the savior for us. Many times over, when it dips down good things always happen around here. Pattern suppression for the win.

Good burst right now

Prob 1/2" here in Franklinton with flurries and still some periods of -sn

Lol. I still like cold and snow.