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HKY_WX

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Everything posted by HKY_WX

  1. HKY_WX
    Euro here in southern Franklin County is prob 4-6 snow/sleet and then a 1/2" of ice...
  2. HKY_WX
    Now that we have some trials over the past 2 months, the canadian, icon, and nam have been pretty worthless past 48 hours. I would stick to paying attention to the gfs/euro combo. The HRR will also be usueful inside of 48.
  3. HKY_WX
    Just like that, GFS dropping 1 to 3" of sleet in Franklin county lol
  4. HKY_WX
    A miller A to Miller A/B hybrid seems most likely. We're basically seeing a stj vort slide over the southern tier which spawns the original SLP. That is then captured by the polar jet wave which turns it up the coast into a Kocin type SECS event for the northeast. The parent HP location plus this eventuality to me favors some mix of snow/sleet/zr. Not a pure zr storm, except for those straddling the edge.
  5. HKY_WX
    Looks like the weekly planner on TWC in the late 90s https://x.com/chazzzwx/status/1890545541278294248?s=09
  6. HKY_WX
    Euro is just a classic 80s/90s type nc north event. Big mixed bag in NC piedmont with the mid Atantic getting a big snow. A Parent HP over the dakotas has actually produced some of our more classic ice events. The parent HP that far west favors a long duration overruning setup. The trough axis tends to be a bit too far west for pure snow. I am concerned with the euro keying in one such large ice accretion this far out. Haven't seen that in many years for NC.
  7. HKY_WX
    It's a bit far out to narrow that down. The parent high is a bit too far west to funnel a Wedge way south. But if the wave itself trends more suppressed then it will be a snowier solution (aka colder aloft). Too many variables at this point.
  8. HKY_WX
    The ice threat is legit this go around. HP is str8 outta Compton (Siberia).
  9. HKY_WX
    Ugh we got a ton of line trees here
  10. HKY_WX
    Not saying it's wrong this time (a clock is right twice/day), but I wouldn't put any credence in that chitty icon model. It's horrible in general.
  11. HKY_WX
    The patten is there. The details will irons themselves out in time
  12. HKY_WX
    32.9 here west of Franklinton with rain. Ugh
  13. HKY_WX
    To piggy back off of this from Jan. This is the first mid-range look I've seen since Jan that is enticing. Doesn't get much better. Weak PV lob over SE Canada. Virtually obliterated PV due to the large -AO and Greenland block. If it pans out around Feb 21st, i'll count that as a correct call from 23 days out ;).
  14. HKY_WX
    1 week later you can see the results. This is a normal lag time between higher heights building in over the Poles and a pattern change over the CONUS. So we may have a window from roughly Feb 21 - Mid March where we could squeak out another event. We shall see.
  15. HKY_WX
    So next 2 weeks look very warm. AO/NAO are headed up and the PV is going to strengthen. This will allow the central/eastern CONUS to warm significantly vs January. That said, there are signals the 2nd half of February will be a transitionary period to perhaps a colder March in the east. See below for the 12z Euro extended 5h heights and the GEFS AO forecast.
  16. HKY_WX
    Euro weeklies and extended ensembles show we'll be fighting a SE ridge in February. The PV looks to strengthen. This will result in a +AO/NAO which will bottle up the cold air in Canada. There are some hints of the PNA going positive in Mid-February which could help out. It will likely be a Month of Ups/Downs. It does show some CONUS wide Cold air in starting up in early March.
  17. HKY_WX
    I mentioned this setup on Sunday. It looks like a real shot of a legit CAD setup. But it's not worth getting too invested in till we get closer.
  18. HKY_WX
    Cheers fellas. To NW trends! 20250121_201636.mp4
  19. HKY_WX
    1/4" 19* light snow here west of Franklinton NC
  20. HKY_WX
    Heavy dandruff here in Franklinton
  21. HKY_WX
    Models have come a long way, but we still got room for improvement.
  22. HKY_WX
    My first obs from the deep south snowstorm is we got no hot water. Frozen pipes here. The joy of bitter cold.
  23. HKY_WX
    Following up with a totals map. I think we'll continue to see a slow trend NW with the precip shield up until gametime on the models for the reasons I suggested above. Timing will be important tomorrow in NC as temperatures will be below freezing and anything that falls will start to impact the evening commute immediately.
  24. HKY_WX
    I'll post one later tonight
  25. HKY_WX
    GFS Wed lows in the deep south. Snowcover. Prob overdone but crazy
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