HKY_WX

Euro looks weaker/east. That's been the trend in todays 12z suite. Just a more suppressed look since yesterday. Need some favorable trends tonight in order to avoid a nuisance event.

The 18z RGEM took a big step towards the Euro. I think we're about 2 or 3 more runs from a general consensus.

NAM was going to be similar to the 00z euro. To me that idea is still on the table. I think we're about 12 to 24 hours away from a censensus.

This does kinda feel like a Rocky Mount to Hampton Roads jackpot type scenario.

Euro is leaving a little more energy back this go around in the southwest. Will prob be a bit further east this run. We may be seeing a bit model convergence this afternoon.

Don't disagree.

I'm texting with Allan and he referenced the ukmet. Holy snow batman.

Yeah didn't see too much on this run.

This is comparable to those dallas fans I saw praying in the stands.

The main diff b/n the euro and gfs is the EURO phases the northern stream impulse with the stj impulse over Texas below. If you see the GFS start trend towards a solution where that s/w is being phased into the northern trough then you know it's caving towards the EURO. Will be interesting to watch.

It's definitely notable the EURO is the most amplified model currently. That usually means it's noticing something the other models aren't due to its superior resolution. Since we now have a prior storm to compare this one to (Trend wise), I would say the GFS will likely trend towards the EURO (at least a bit). That said, the fact that most of the other models are farther east would lead me to believe we won't go to a Miller B solution. IMO this storm evolution is likely to start Thursday night as the arctic front drags through. This will setup a stationary thermal boundary somewhere near the coastline. Which the following impulses will ride. The main question is what happens on Saturday as the main PJ impulse dives down? If it amps like the euro eastern NC get's ice and western get's snow. And visa versa if it's more suppressed. The euro is also throwing in the chance of a last minute phase solution which could be good for eastern NC from a deformation band/back end snow scenario. The I think by tonight/tomorrow the models will start to converge.

GFS is kinda like Dak prescott. Sucks when it matters.

I'll take my chances with this if I were in the triangle. That's a pretty classical SLP track for central/eastern NC. The upper air pattern with the late phase also sets the stage for a bombogenesis scenario over eastern NC where you can get caught up in the deformation axis and get some stupid totals.

Theyre on the wrong side of the wedge brah.

Happy for my west nc brethren. The pattern looks good for more. Still 28* here with zr/ip north of wake forest

Gorgeous storm

Tornado outbreak in Fl blowing up on Twitter

Lil less than in inch here in wake forest. Hvy sleet right now

Forecast

Stop toying with us bean

The UL being a few hours slower will prob result in more phasing with the PJ s/w coming in behind it. This would just mean a more juiced up system down the road similar to the EURO.

Really just depends on sleet. Could see anywhere from 4 to 10 inches.

Any of you guys have a davis weather station or some similar? I've been thinking of getting one for months but might bite the bullet and do it. Any recommendations?

That's like 1 flake bro.