HKY_WX

It's not a great setup for the foothills. It's a combo of this being a west to east type system (Due to the blocky NH pattern) before the Atlantic SLP takes over. So you get a bit of downsloping to start (dry/warm air) and once the column is saturated, the dynamics are shifting east towards the Atlantic SLP. They wont strike out though.

I love the warm bubble right over HKY lol. I remember a system in the 2000s where that little valley warm pocket kept us sleet while everyone around was switching to snow.

Prob the same as gso. Maybe a bit more. 2 to 4?

My thoughts: AVL to HKY Corridor: T to 2 CLT: 1 to 2 GSO: 2 to 3 RDU: 3 to 5 Rocky Mount to VAB: 4 to 8 (likely more in spots)

Don't recall many situations where the 3k and 12k versions of the NAM were so different. The model is clearly struggling with this one.

Seems like the repeat of the previous systems is occurring again. Starts heading west around 48 hours out.

Something the short-range Canadian and NAM both trended on at 12z was the PJ energy. Both shifted it a bit west which allows the trough axis to be a bit more neutral titled. This allows more moisture back west. This will be key if you want a trend towards a juicer system, instead of another suppressed 1 incher. Interested to see if the Euro reverts back some at 12z toay.

I think this one is going to come down to how quickly that trailing PJ energy phases into the trough. At this point I would rather see it trend stronger even if it results in a changeover as i'm more concerned now with it trending to a quick nuisance event for everyone. The -AO/Blocking in Canada has really played havoc with the models, but it's necessary in the end if we want a storm.

Winter fatigue lol. I'm ready for severe weather season and warm weather after the next 2 wks

Nasty.. This could easily trend back towards the southern triangle

Still a helluva icestorm in the transition zone. Where that sets up is still in trouble. I'm definitely not overly excited being in the snow jackpot 72 hours out. Feels like fools gold for RDU right now lol.

If this keeps up, its going to be an central/eastern NC/VA Snowstorm special. Crazy trends the last 24 hours. Models are feeling the push of the blocking in Canada. Prepare for crazy NAM/HRRR runs the next couple nights. Get your whiskey ready.

I've just observed a bias this winter on the GFS specifically where it shears out STJ s/w's too quickly. It will likely be wrong with what it's currently showing. It doesn't make much sense in comparison to the pattern aloft. Eastern areas will see more QPF than western areas just by nature of being closer to the moisture source, but there will also be mixing issues further east. The only way I could see this busting for western NC is if the lead wave does indeed shear out/trend weaker and the main show is associated with the Atlantic low as the PJ re-energizes it. That said, I would need to see the EURO show this and it hasn't up to this point.

How quickly we forget lol... This will trend both ways bf Weds. Just enjoy the fact that a juicy system is on the way and frozen precip is likely for many of us.

There will likely be an area of enhancement in NE NC/SE VA as the SLP strengthens. This is due to the PJ wave dropping in behind and re-energizing it. We've seen this scenario many times. THe GFS/EURO/GGM are all showing it now. Also the models have clued in on the strength of the blocking and are now shunting this OTS after hitting NC/VA which does make a lot of sense when you look at the broad pattern below:

The worries regarding QPF will be short-lived when we get into the short-range. Especially given the consistency of the EURO with totals over 1". TheSTJ wave is amplified and doesn't shear out. It will likely be the opposite as the PJ wave drops in behind it and phases with it. How close to the coast is the million dollar question. Precip type is still the main issue in my mind for NC and where the SN/IP/ZR lines setup. That's still very much in question. As the models resolve the track of the low, the mid-levels (900mb-700mb) will be impacted and dictate that.

18z Euro with a cool 2' in Richmond. I need that to trend 2 counties southwest lol.

The Feb 96 system is prob my all time most memorable winter system in Hickory. Definitely the most damaging system i've seen outside of Hurricane Hugo and Helene in that area.

Taken verbatim that thermal boundary where the cold/warm meet is likely to be the SLP track. Roughly Valdosta GA to Wilmington NC. That really does favor snow in western NC. Areas in the N Foothills and Mtnd would likely get slammed in that situation as it would not changeover

Interesting. Not directly related, but I've only ever seen 1 system in NC that ive experienced personally where we received significant sn/ip and also a significant accumulation of ZR. Dec 2002 in Hickory. Received roughly 6 inches of sn/ip followed by .3 or so zr. Extremely rare. Usually it's one or the other due to the nature of storm tracks and limited moisture supply.

It's possible the models are starting to realize the strength of the cold dome at the sfc. This is pretty unreal low level cold air. Trying to remember the last time we've had a legit STJ impulse override a cold dome such as this. It's likely you have to go back to the early 2000's or 90's. Unless we see a trend NW with the SLP over the next few days I think Sleet/Snow is more of a threat than ZR. It's early, but with a Miller A that skirts the coastline, there will only be a thin ZR transition zone. It will mostly be Snow/Sleet given the cold dome and lack of a deep warm nose aloft. My concern is if we get a SLP trend where it gets a bit more NW towards the coastal plain, that could result in a legit changeover to ZR. Time will tell on that. I'm not sold on either at this point in time as it's about 4ish days out.

Euro here in southern Franklin County is prob 4-6 snow/sleet and then a 1/2" of ice...

Now that we have some trials over the past 2 months, the canadian, icon, and nam have been pretty worthless past 48 hours. I would stick to paying attention to the gfs/euro combo. The HRR will also be usueful inside of 48.

Just like that, GFS dropping 1 to 3" of sleet in Franklin county lol

A miller A to Miller A/B hybrid seems most likely. We're basically seeing a stj vort slide over the southern tier which spawns the original SLP. That is then captured by the polar jet wave which turns it up the coast into a Kocin type SECS event for the northeast. The parent HP location plus this eventuality to me favors some mix of snow/sleet/zr. Not a pure zr storm, except for those straddling the edge.