HKY_WX

Either way, the coastal beaches are in trouble. Shear looks really limited on this one as it approaches the coastline.

I still like landfall near ilm and then a slow slog west into southern nc bf turning back north. I can see a stall but I think a turn back south is bogus. Just basing this off climo, the hurricane's size and speed (inertia), and the overall pattern. These model flops are annoying but also humorous after a bit of rum.

Harvey is more of the exception than the rule. Most hurricanes once they get in the 35 to 40N latitude area, inevitably get caught up in the mid-latitude troughs/westerlies. It's therefore harder for them to stall. I think we'll see Florence slow down after landfall but meander NW and eventually get caught up in the westerlies and swept out by an incoming wave. Some of the models looping it through NC and back out into the southern Atlantic seem far fetched. It's possible though, I've seen crazier things.

Yea, 30 inches of rain is pretty scary. I hate quoting JB, b/c I consider him a hypster, but he would be right. This would easily be the most costly storm in NC history if it takes the euro track and the corresponding stall idea. I don't think I live anywhere near a flood plain, so I hope i'm aight. There are some tall pines around, that scares me more. If I lived near any of the rivers or dams in central/eastern NC, I would start preparing now to leave and have an idea of where to go (if things don't change b/n now and Weds Night).

One thing to keep in mind, is there are practically no examples of major atlantic canes bending back to the west into SC/NC (i hear some posters referring to Hugo and some outlier model runs showing that type of track). Hugo may be the only one I can think of, and that was due to a decently strong upper low to it's WSW. This one doesn't have that feature currently. The main driver of this one is pretty singular (Western Atlantic Ridge). Florence is going pretty much track on the SW side of it, so a curve WNW and then NW seems most likely. Once it is far enough inland it will decouple and weaken into a weak SLP. That is when it will stall b/c the steering currents aren't strong enough to keep it moving after its transition. I think that's the main reason the NHC mentioned the further south options were the result of a weaker cane. The stall is the big question in my mind and you have to give the Euro precedent b/c it's been the most consistent per usual. So I would say it's going to be in Central NC/Southern VA. Fran is a better comparison, as the sfc high and WAR line up better.

Sorry bro, my wife and I love wrightsville beach, and this track wld ruin that beach. Tough to think about.

This has potential to blow fran away from all aspects. This will be a massive blow ala hugo and hazel on the coast/interior wind wise if projections are right, with floyd or Harvey flooding potential.

Euro has been extremely consistent for several runs. Gotta feel decent about a landfall point b/n myrtle beach and moorehead city. Looks like the worse hit for the Carolinas since hazel/hugo/fran.

Euro is a nightmare for eastern and central nc. Generational type storm. Would devastate our area with wind, surge, and historic flooding.

The pattern def doesnt favor a recurve, but I guess it's possible if it stalls offshore and a northern stream wave comes along. That scenario is generally unlikely this far north in latitude imo. I see an ilm track at this point, but still a long way to go.

You could see this coming based on the upper low track. Pretty classic one for the northern deep south and mountains/foothills. It's really tough to get a snow or ice storm outside of the hills without more sfc cold than this system had. That said, that system coming out of the plains I mentioned a few days ago is going to re-energize the upper levels /sfc low tomorrow morning and will likely spark a deformation type band that will rotate out of the Piedmont. Could see a few hours of light snow in the morning.

Well my thinking from a few days ago worked out. This will likely be a major event (anything 6in+ in HKY in my estimation) in hickory after all said and done. Currently over 4 inches and this doesn't look to stop anytime soon. Boundary layer temps favored the colder NAM and so i'm thinking 6 to 10 inches in Hickory before all is said and done.

I made it to hky last night for the wknd. like 6z runs a lot for imby. Pretty classic setup aloft for this area like I mentioned earlier in the week, so this shift was not surprising. Biggest hurdle will be boundary ayyer temps from 10am to about 5pm. Then I think most of what falls will lay. Mtns and n foothills will ne crushed.

GFS and NAM looking pretty bullish on the snowstorm for the foothills/NW piedmont area. Thinking a general 2 to 4 is probable. If boundary layer temps were a little better, this would be a 4-8 or 5-10 type story easily. Still think it might be for certain locales in the higher elevations. It's enough for me to escape changeover hell in raleigh tonight and hope to see a few inches of snow back in Hickory this weekend.

Taking a look at the euro closer tonight and it looks like mostly snow for Raleigh with some rain mixed in obviously. The sfc temps aren't a huge issue, falling into the lower 30's by the late afternoon/early evening. 850mb temps oscillate from 0c to -2c. It's all going to come down to how amped this thing is once it navigates the MS Valley. If it's closer to the NAVGEM, western NC get's slammed, if it's the euro, eastern NC is the prime spot. With the lack of cold air damming, it's all going to be dependent on SLP/850mb low track and strength.

Same here man

Pay attention to that s/w coming due south into Minnesota. They trajectory on that is pretty intense N to S.

NAM will likely be even more juiced looking at the early panels of the shortwave out west. I'm curious to see if that polar wave can phase in behind this to lengthen the backend/upper low snowfall on Saturday.

Yea, that's the spot to be in the triangle area. 4 years of living in the Raleigh metro area and seeing these changeovers is enough for me. I am ready to move NW of town. I have zeroed in on that area and my fiancé loves that part of the area too. So we are thinking of a move there once we buy a house.

Yea the northern portion of orange county never seems to have mixing issues in these types of storms.

Too far of a drive to work bro in Raleigh. Maybe a move about 10 miles north of Hillsborough.

This is another reason I am moving to Hillsborough in a few years.

I think we'll see the EURO jump NW this afternoon most likely. This seems to be the timeframe (48 to 72 hrs out) it has been happening w/ SECS over the past few years. If this trend continues, starting to think western NC is going to be hammered. I will likely head home Friday afternoon if that's the case. This setup aloft is pretty ideal for that portion of the state.

Good thing I am going to be mobile for this storm. Will be heading to HKY if it's chaseable worthy. I was supposed to head home this weekend anyway for a golf tournament lol. Still up in the air on RDU vs HKY on this one, unless the euro caves.

The majority of the models are more amped than the EURO, carving out the upper low more distinctly than the euro over the MISS Valley. If last year was any indicator towards this year, we'll probably see the euro cave at some point. Just taking a look purely at the 500mb chart, it's a pretty classic setup, the only issue is it's so early in the season for a snowstorm. My gut tells me most of the area see's snow falling, but boundary layer conditions limit the ratios to something like 6:1, which would lower totals to a general 1-3 across the area, except in areas who get lucky with dynamic cooling. EURO has been keying in on an area from SE Wake county NE towards the coastline for days. So it will be interesting to see how that pans out. The SLP track is pretty ideal being decently offshore, so I don't see a ton of mid or upper level mixing being an issue. This will likely be a rain or snow scenario.