HKY_WX

The pattern def doesnt favor a recurve, but I guess it's possible if it stalls offshore and a northern stream wave comes along. That scenario is generally unlikely this far north in latitude imo. I see an ilm track at this point, but still a long way to go.

You could see this coming based on the upper low track. Pretty classic one for the northern deep south and mountains/foothills. It's really tough to get a snow or ice storm outside of the hills without more sfc cold than this system had. That said, that system coming out of the plains I mentioned a few days ago is going to re-energize the upper levels /sfc low tomorrow morning and will likely spark a deformation type band that will rotate out of the Piedmont. Could see a few hours of light snow in the morning.

Well my thinking from a few days ago worked out. This will likely be a major event (anything 6in+ in HKY in my estimation) in hickory after all said and done. Currently over 4 inches and this doesn't look to stop anytime soon. Boundary layer temps favored the colder NAM and so i'm thinking 6 to 10 inches in Hickory before all is said and done.

I made it to hky last night for the wknd. like 6z runs a lot for imby. Pretty classic setup aloft for this area like I mentioned earlier in the week, so this shift was not surprising. Biggest hurdle will be boundary ayyer temps from 10am to about 5pm. Then I think most of what falls will lay. Mtns and n foothills will ne crushed.

GFS and NAM looking pretty bullish on the snowstorm for the foothills/NW piedmont area. Thinking a general 2 to 4 is probable. If boundary layer temps were a little better, this would be a 4-8 or 5-10 type story easily. Still think it might be for certain locales in the higher elevations. It's enough for me to escape changeover hell in raleigh tonight and hope to see a few inches of snow back in Hickory this weekend.

Taking a look at the euro closer tonight and it looks like mostly snow for Raleigh with some rain mixed in obviously. The sfc temps aren't a huge issue, falling into the lower 30's by the late afternoon/early evening. 850mb temps oscillate from 0c to -2c. It's all going to come down to how amped this thing is once it navigates the MS Valley. If it's closer to the NAVGEM, western NC get's slammed, if it's the euro, eastern NC is the prime spot. With the lack of cold air damming, it's all going to be dependent on SLP/850mb low track and strength.

Same here man

Pay attention to that s/w coming due south into Minnesota. They trajectory on that is pretty intense N to S.

NAM will likely be even more juiced looking at the early panels of the shortwave out west. I'm curious to see if that polar wave can phase in behind this to lengthen the backend/upper low snowfall on Saturday.

Yea, that's the spot to be in the triangle area. 4 years of living in the Raleigh metro area and seeing these changeovers is enough for me. I am ready to move NW of town. I have zeroed in on that area and my fiancé loves that part of the area too. So we are thinking of a move there once we buy a house.

Yea the northern portion of orange county never seems to have mixing issues in these types of storms.

Too far of a drive to work bro in Raleigh. Maybe a move about 10 miles north of Hillsborough.

This is another reason I am moving to Hillsborough in a few years.

I think we'll see the EURO jump NW this afternoon most likely. This seems to be the timeframe (48 to 72 hrs out) it has been happening w/ SECS over the past few years. If this trend continues, starting to think western NC is going to be hammered. I will likely head home Friday afternoon if that's the case. This setup aloft is pretty ideal for that portion of the state.

Good thing I am going to be mobile for this storm. Will be heading to HKY if it's chaseable worthy. I was supposed to head home this weekend anyway for a golf tournament lol. Still up in the air on RDU vs HKY on this one, unless the euro caves.

The majority of the models are more amped than the EURO, carving out the upper low more distinctly than the euro over the MISS Valley. If last year was any indicator towards this year, we'll probably see the euro cave at some point. Just taking a look purely at the 500mb chart, it's a pretty classic setup, the only issue is it's so early in the season for a snowstorm. My gut tells me most of the area see's snow falling, but boundary layer conditions limit the ratios to something like 6:1, which would lower totals to a general 1-3 across the area, except in areas who get lucky with dynamic cooling. EURO has been keying in on an area from SE Wake county NE towards the coastline for days. So it will be interesting to see how that pans out. The SLP track is pretty ideal being decently offshore, so I don't see a ton of mid or upper level mixing being an issue. This will likely be a rain or snow scenario.

It doesn't matter what you majored in college(medical field the exception maybe), the job market is miserable currently. We're in a recession/depression environment. Hopefully things improve, but you have to put things in perspective. The job market hasn't been this bad in probably 70 years.