HKY_WX

Light snow now here in Franklinton

I'd say 3 to 6 most likely.

1st & Final Call (Parenthesis is potential; Bigger gap means higher boom/bust potential) Favored Models: Blend of EUROAI & RRFS (Experimental model that will replace NAM this spring) AVL: 3-6 (High:8/Low:2) CLT: 4-8 (High:10/Low:3) FAY: 6-10 (High:12/Low:4) GSO: 3-6 (High:8/Low:2) GSP: 3-6 (High:8/Low:2) GVL: 10-15 (High:20/Low:5) (Likely area to be sweet spot given model trends of last 48 hours. Will get longest duration of coastal banding due to strengthening/consolidating SLP and 850 low) HKY: 3-6 (High:10/Low:3) (Foothills away from the escarpment will have some additional forcing due to upslope. Also lee trough/frontogenesis forcing due to thermal gradient) ILM: 4-8 (High:12/Low:4) RDU: 4-8 (High:12/Low:1) (Area of higher boom/bust potential due to dry air infiltration from parent HP and coastal energy transfer. The Triangle will also be close to the edge of the coastal death band. Bust potential is likely being overdone but I am putting it in as models have shown it) VAB: 4-8 (High:12/Low:2)

Euro shifted north a bit. Looks better QPF wise for E-central NC. Overall no huge changes.

Formerly know as the RUC. Aka the original hires gangster. Also the best short-range model during the last minute north trend for the Christmas storm 2010. Which happens to be my primary analog for this system.

Fayetteville to Greenville looks like a good spot. There will likely be some areas in eastern NC off the coastline that will score huge in this setup as well. The main coastal band has shifted around about as much as I can ever remember on the models this close in. Part of that is the struggle to resolve when this vort rotates negative and just how far W or SW it actually digs. The more it tilts negative, the more Atlantic moisture is drawn in, the better chance for the SLP to consolidate quicker and come closer to the coast. This also moves the 850 low further west and stronger, which increases banding and dendrite growth over the piedmont. My guess is it will be very close to gametime before we know for sure where it will setup. All RDU jokes aside, the Triangle could very well still end up in a banding situation where you get 10 inches plus. Or it could trend south again tomorrow and get 2 or 3. So we'll see. These snow maps this far out are pretty worthless IMO in this situation. It's almost better to just throw out a max/min for the larger cities. I will prob do that tommorow.

I might actually agree with this. I haven't really seen it oscillate at all, with regards to QPF location. Just up/down with amounts.

Fixed it

Raleigh's the Buffalo Bills of Winterstorms

Pretty evident there will be some good banding in this system. Great dendrite growth with the cold air and upper low. That's why these areas of lolipops keep moving around. It's virtually impossible for the models to pinpoint them 48 hours out.

He says a lot of things.

If you're a RDU IMBY, typically in these scenarios, central NC does very well if the UL vort goes negative. This pours in the Atlantic moisture, that's why all the runs over the past few days which showed the highest totals around RDU also featured the system going negative over Tennessee. This is what happened in Jan 2000. The conjecture around the dry slot is just twitter BS imo until we know how this vort will behave. There are still some quirks to go.

It's really just a correction to reality as we get closer to the system. It matches up better now with the med range models.

This why you don't pay attention to the HRRR or RAP at this range. It just corrected its 5h about 300 miles west. Which makes sense to align with the EURO/GFS. But still....

18z EPS SLP plots. Some good agreement on a track about 50 to 75 miles off HAT. Pretty good track for central and eastern NC.

Nice tick west on the Euro to break the suppressive trend for the last few runs. There is still time for some more improvement. Most of the models for last weeks storm were way too flat with the polar jet waves and corrected all the way until we got to game time. Part of this is due to the +PNA setup. It definitely lends itself to more digging of shortwaves. Not saying that will happen here, as the synoptics of the pattern are definitely different, but there is a precedent for it. Could be beneficial for those in VA. This won't necessarily hurt NC either given how cold core the vort is.

by gametime that 3ft will be over dc lol.

Up the coast this run, which is likely in this full phase scenario.

If this works out to it's full potential, to me, it's probably unlikely to just go out to sea to that extent. It will likely go up the coast some. The models are still in the process of figuring out the phase.

Significant jump west at 5H. Let's hope we start to see some alignment among the ensembles.

That's what she said.

For those wanting to understand the synoptics of the pattern and why the GFS trended better, it's mainly related to the upper low over the northern Atlantic. In the older days, this feature was/is referred to as the New Foundland low or "50/50" low, which forms near the 50/50 lat/lon area. It's a prevalent feature during -AO patterns which features lower heights over the CONUS and northern Atlantic, while higher heights build into the northern latitudes. This upper low acts as a way to slow down the pattern and induce additional cutoff lows upstream (in this case it would be our storm). The problem is if it's too strong it will suppress or shear out any attempts at this feature. This is a common model fault especially during these types of extreme -AO patterns. It's also a reason why commonly see these SECS systems trend NW/more amped as we draw closer. It has screwed us many times in the south. It could benefit us in this case. We want to see this 50/50 low continue to trend quicker and exit faster into the Atlantic. This allows the heights over the east coast to rise and give us a better chance at a cutoff with at least a netural tilt, which will throw back Atlantic moisture.

6z Euro AI is west, OP is east.

I wouldn't crown it yet. The sample size is not very large.