HKY_WX
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Everything posted by HKY_WX
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The lee side screw zone is normally confined to that area of NW Burke/Caldwell counties. Just east Blowing Rock as you descend. Normally it doesn't impact Lenoir towards Hickory from my experiences back home.
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Looks like more traditional battle lines (Snow/sleet/rain), given where the HP is projected to be.
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Parents have an inch NE of Hickory
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This worked out. Pattern recognition for the win.
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Saturday STJ wave is the most interesting looking one I've seen this year so far (that's not saying much). The 12z NAM at 84 hours has this system much more cutoff over the southwest. The thicknesses are supportive of snow/rain. Only issue could be the boundary layer conditions being too warm.If we could trend this a bit strong aloft/more cutoff, it would manufacture some cold air. Something to watch.
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Which is depressing as I've always wanted to find a correlation b/n the lower Sunspot activity/Solar Min and -AO!
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Story of the winter so far is the +AO. You can just look at a Northern Hemispheric 500mb map and it's obvious looking. The polar vortex is very strong/singular and it's very cold over the northern latitudes this winter. Until that changes, it will be hard to get any appreciable cold air into the south.
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Def think some supercell tornadoes are possible along I40 this evening. Sunshine breaking out today has made things volatile in the Piedmont of NC.
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Thx bud, howd it work out for you folks up there? Come at me broski!
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Notice the low pressure is up into central AL and GA. I spoke about this a few days ago. This often happens in STJ dominate system where CAD has setup. This always changes everyone to ice except for the NW mountains. That's why these 10:1 snow ratio maps posted all week were worthless.
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Geeze that's insanity... currently camped out here in banner elk. Still a few inches of snow on the ground from earlier in the wk.
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The models changes have been mostly noise at this point, from what I've seen. I'm going with the below: Charlotte: 3 to 5inches of snow/sleet followed by .25 in freezing rain Raleigh: 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet followed by .5 in freezing rain Boone: 1 to 2 feet of snow Asheville: 8-12 inches snow/sleet Greensboro: 6-10 inches snow/sleet with a light glaze of Freezing rain The worst freezing rain will be on the transition line as always, which will run from south of Charlotte up to southern Wake County. Anyone on the 31-32 degree side of this line could see as much as an inch of freezing rain. I could see this happening in the zone from northern SC towards the Pinehurst area. My main analog continues to be Dec 4&5th 2002. The only difference is the s/w appears to be a bit further south this go around, resulting in a bit more snow/sleet vs freezing rain. Still favoring a Miller A/B hybrid, which will result in a sleet changeover for many areas.
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Very reactionary from GSP. I don't know why they even issue those this far out.
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I favor the Control run over the EPS. As it shows No snow for Ji and NW DC Metro.
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I wouldn't cliff dive just yet, as the NAM isn't in its better range quite yet 48hrs in. Bad News: That said, it definitely displays what I've been saying for a few days. We're in early December, this is a STJ driven system (85% of it), and this is not a Miller A system. This will have some significant icing involved for some folks (IP/ZR). Those 24 inch totals were never viable outside of the NW mountains. Good News: I think concerns about precip totals are totally unfounded, as this a large amplitude wave with strong STJ connections down to the equatorial regions. There will be no shortage of QPF (2 to 3 inch totals) are likely over a large swath of the state. How much of that is Snow/Ice/Rain is the question.
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A few tidbits to keep in mind on this one. The global models are notoriously bad at picking up on mid-level warming (aka changeovers to sleet/freezing rain). I wouldn't get too giddy with any of these precip-type maps until we get into the NAM range. It's generally the best when it comes to the full top-down thermal profile of the atmosphere.
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If you guys think these gfs maps are insane, just wait until we get into the NAM Hi-Res range lol... There will likely be some over-dramatic ridiculous totals on it.,..
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Just out of curiosity grit, where are you getting the 18z version?
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Looks pretty similar to me, prob a slightly colder look given the STJ s/w is further south. Some of you guys don't know how to read a model lol.
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To me this is just looking like a classic Mountains/Foothills/NW Piedmont snowstorm. I'm sure there will be some significant icing in the transition zone, however this is about as classic a looking setup you can get from AVL to HKY to GSO and northwest. Jackpot zone will likely line up over the NW mountains into SW Virginia. This is not a good setup for RDU to CLT for snow, unfortunately. I'm sure those areas could see a couple inches courtesy of frontend overrunning isentropic banding or on the backend via the upper low/PJ energy dropping in behind the storm. But they will struggle mightily with the Sleet/ZR/plain Jane rain mixing in. I'm still not sold the sleet/zr will not reach into the Foothills, either. I've seen these setups too many times. SLP track will be critical for those areas.
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Euro phased in the polar jet wave on the backside. This is actually prob better for those in eastern nc, as it results in back end deformation banding. Overall still a great thumping. The slp is more aligned with what youd expect from this
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This has to be the largest amplitude STJ wave I've seen since Dec 2002 and Feb 2004 events. The 2 to 3 inch QPF totals are very likely with this one.
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The euro has caved with regards to Ice. It now has a strong wedge/ZR cone down into Athens GA. I look for this to expand over the next several days. The cold air source isn't overwhelming given we are so early in the year, however the position of the HP is pretty much ideal. So that in and of itself will generate enough ENE/NE winds to funnel dry/cold air down to cause ZR at 30-32*. Image effect 9PM Sunday... Also on a few frames I noticed the IP line inching towards hickory/Greensboro. Once again, that will impact totals in those areas like always. It will turn a 24 inch storm into a 10inch storm.... IP has been the ruin of many potential historical totals in the southern/Central Foothills/Triad. NW of that line and above 2500 ft..... The sky is the limit on this one...
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Nevermind lol... My location from Friday to Monday!
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Anyone have the banner elk GFS totals? Lol
