HKY_WX
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Everything posted by HKY_WX
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The Northern Hemispheric pattern setting up is probably the best we've seen since 09/10 and 10/11(if you like snow in the east). Anytime you get such extreme blocking in the Atlantic (-NAO), the model trends are usually in favor of increased amplification and cutoffs upstream. Aka any fart in the wind can turn into a SECS. This pattern will likely produce, but I wouldn't get too caught up in the individual model solutions this far out.
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I Def think there will be some gusts 60+ in the triangle this evening. Not sure what amount of power outages that will equate to though.
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Yeah the centers are no longer vertically stacked like a traditional Hurricane. It's tougher to make a real landfall call. I'd prob go by the slp wherever that is currently located.
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55 here in Wake Forest with gusts in the 30s. It does feel more like a noreaster than a cane. Def more of a subtropical storm now as it gains lattitude.
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Best wind potential will be this evening. IMO this storm will continue to error east of track. Should be some good rain totals and gusts later this eve in central NC.
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Pre Ian sunset
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This will be a solid wind event through central SC/NC. The main reason is we're combining a Hurricane with a HP over the northeast. The gradient will be strong. The wind will mostly be confined to Friday/Friday Night though.
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NC piedmont will definitely have some good gusts tomorrow afternoon/evenining. The trends continued to push it further east up the coastline. Combining this with the HP will make for a tight pressure gradient up here. Should be an interesting day tomorrow.
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I'm assuming this might be based on the amount of rescue calls they were getting in yesterday and couldn't respond to. Let's hope those people figured out a way to stay alive.
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Haven't seen surge images like this since Katrina.
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Lots of water rising/help calls on the Lee county florida ems/fire line.
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Visible satellite shows the eye clearing out/rounding. Still appears to be strengthening.
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Florida topographic map, elevation, relief (topographic-map.com) Good link to checkout the elevation. Looks like most of Cape Coral is around 4 to 6 meters.
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If I was going to stay I would at least setup shop at an interior area with a masonry/steel structure with several floors (like the hospital). I googled the area and that would prob be the safest place (except for leaving which is what I would do in that area). If you google sat view the area, every neighborhood has a canal running through it and they all connect to the ocean/bay/etc.
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I hope anyone in Cape Coral is gone. That area is going to be 15ft+ under water.
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The spokes around the eyewall indicate continued strengthening to me. I don't see any reason for it to cease until landfall. It's imbedded within this full latitude trough, so the shear is simply enhancing it's UL outflow. The eyewall looks solid to withstand the dry air. Going to be a sad day for Florida. May be the most costly cane in their history.
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Being in the industry, the people will suffer too. So many policies dont have wind/hail coverage or have wind/hail deductibles of 5%.
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The EWRC came at the worst time yesterday. You could see this coming.
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Not sure, but I would think any kind of hostile conditions could trigger it. I only brought up dry air bc thats all I see at the current time. I dont see any signs of shear impacting it currently.
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There's a bit of chicken/egg here though. I read a research paper a few years ago that studied annular hurricanes and how being embedded in a drier surrounding environment can sometimes trigger ewrc's and cause the phenomenon. The model physics take the mid level dry air into account. With the euro showing an intensification period starting on approach tomorrow, I would pay attention. This current reorg is prob already factored into that.
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Considering an afternoon landfall tomorrow, the timing of this may suck for Florida. Timing wise its prob likely the current ewrc will complete this evening, leading to another period of intensifying before landfall.
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Thats a hell of a northern eyewall forming
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If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north).
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Agreed. We went from possibly a weak Cane meandering North offshore to a potential Cat 3+ hitting central Florida at a decent clip. That said, this will be costly as that's such a populated area of the country.
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Yeah, I'm not sure I buy that unless we see king euro jump on that train. If the Hurricane models/NAM are right, it would be a solid 2nd hit in GA/SC.
