HKY_WX

Looks like the weekly planner on TWC in the late 90s https://x.com/chazzzwx/status/1890545541278294248?s=09

Euro is just a classic 80s/90s type nc north event. Big mixed bag in NC piedmont with the mid Atantic getting a big snow. A Parent HP over the dakotas has actually produced some of our more classic ice events. The parent HP that far west favors a long duration overruning setup. The trough axis tends to be a bit too far west for pure snow. I am concerned with the euro keying in one such large ice accretion this far out. Haven't seen that in many years for NC.

It's a bit far out to narrow that down. The parent high is a bit too far west to funnel a Wedge way south. But if the wave itself trends more suppressed then it will be a snowier solution (aka colder aloft). Too many variables at this point.

The ice threat is legit this go around. HP is str8 outta Compton (Siberia).

Ugh we got a ton of line trees here

Not saying it's wrong this time (a clock is right twice/day), but I wouldn't put any credence in that chitty icon model. It's horrible in general.

The patten is there. The details will irons themselves out in time

32.9 here west of Franklinton with rain. Ugh

To piggy back off of this from Jan. This is the first mid-range look I've seen since Jan that is enticing. Doesn't get much better. Weak PV lob over SE Canada. Virtually obliterated PV due to the large -AO and Greenland block. If it pans out around Feb 21st, i'll count that as a correct call from 23 days out ;).

1 week later you can see the results. This is a normal lag time between higher heights building in over the Poles and a pattern change over the CONUS. So we may have a window from roughly Feb 21 - Mid March where we could squeak out another event. We shall see.

So next 2 weeks look very warm. AO/NAO are headed up and the PV is going to strengthen. This will allow the central/eastern CONUS to warm significantly vs January. That said, there are signals the 2nd half of February will be a transitionary period to perhaps a colder March in the east. See below for the 12z Euro extended 5h heights and the GEFS AO forecast.

Euro weeklies and extended ensembles show we'll be fighting a SE ridge in February. The PV looks to strengthen. This will result in a +AO/NAO which will bottle up the cold air in Canada. There are some hints of the PNA going positive in Mid-February which could help out. It will likely be a Month of Ups/Downs. It does show some CONUS wide Cold air in starting up in early March.

I mentioned this setup on Sunday. It looks like a real shot of a legit CAD setup. But it's not worth getting too invested in till we get closer.

Cheers fellas. To NW trends! 20250121_201636.mp4

1/4" 19* light snow here west of Franklinton NC

Heavy dandruff here in Franklinton

Models have come a long way, but we still got room for improvement.

My first obs from the deep south snowstorm is we got no hot water. Frozen pipes here. The joy of bitter cold.

Following up with a totals map. I think we'll continue to see a slow trend NW with the precip shield up until gametime on the models for the reasons I suggested above. Timing will be important tomorrow in NC as temperatures will be below freezing and anything that falls will start to impact the evening commute immediately.

I'll post one later tonight

GFS Wed lows in the deep south. Snowcover. Prob overdone but crazy

If I fart, it snows in boone

Lol u guys sound like spurned lovers.

The euro/gfs both are showing some signals of a large split flow stj low 10 days from now. This is a big dog ice/snow look . First one I've seen in the extended that gets me interested (1st real big dog look this year). Worth mentioning since both the gfs and ec show it.

This what i'm thinking currently. Will update with some totals tomorrow night. I don't expect any dramatic jumps with this system at this point as the pattern doesn't dictate such, but a trend NW as we get near gametime wouldn't be unexpected (if not expected given the last 2 systems of note). I've noticed the GFS has had a bias of overshearing STJ waves recently until it self correct within 72 hours. This is one reason for the last minute corrections we've seen with some of the models. From an NC IMBY perspective, my location of Choice would be somewhere around Greenville NC to Kinston NC. Not sure I would expect historic snowfall but moderate to major for that area in NC. The totals in LA/Southern MS/AL could be historic however.