Tullioz

Yeah, anyone under the age of 35 either wasn't born yet or doesn't remember the winter of 1993 and the years leading up to that winter. I did measure an inch of snow on February 26, 1993, but prior to that, I had gone more than three years without seeing accumulating snow in Rockingham County. As bad as this current streak of snowless winters has been, the early 1990s were worse in this part of NC.

I agree. My area averages around an inch of snow in March, and as recently as 2018, there was a dusting of snow as late as April 7th. There were also three separate snow events in March of that year, totaling close to 10" for the month, with 3" of that coming on March 24 and 25th. Today is only February 15th, and we still have six weeks to work with. I know the ensambles and other long-range guidance do not look good at the moment, but just a couple of weeks ago, these same forecast tools were showing a great pattern for the period we are in now, and look how that turned out. I'm with you; I think many areas outside the mountains will see some winter weather before this season is over.

Looks like a lot more coming after that.

30 years ago, it wasn't much different in my area than what we are experiencing now. That was when I experienced the longest streak of snowless winters in my lifetime. It was a terrible period of time for snow lovers around here. It's still more than a year away in my area before that happens. Looking back at my records, Eden went from December 13th, 1989, to February 26th, 1993, without accumulating snow. 3 years, 2 months, and 14 days.

WB maps are showing surface temperatures near freezing during the heaviest precipitation.

It would be a nice event for the foothills and NW Piedmont of NC.

I agree, this should be a good run.

One of the worst ice storms I ever experienced occurred February 27, 2003. I had around 1" of ice accumulation from freezing rain at my location; some other parts of Rockingham County had even more. High temperatures were in the low to mid-60s in the days leading up to the storm, and the lowest temperature I recorded on the 27th was 28.4.

Higher SSTs may be more of an asset than a liability when it comes to winter storms along the east coast. Climate Change and Extreme Snow in the U.S. Conditions that influence the severity of eastern U.S. snowstorms include warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic. These can lead to exceptionally high amounts of moisture flowing into a storm and contribute to greater intensification of the storm. Unusually high ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic were a contributing factor to the February 5–6, 2010, snowstorm dubbed “snowmaggedon” that hit Washington, DC, with 17.8 inches of snow at Reagan National Airport—the fourth highest total storm amount for the city at the time. Also, some recent research has shown that increasing surface temperatures and reductions in Arctic sea ice may produce atmospheric circulation patterns that are favorable for winter storm development in the eastern United States. In addition, studies have shown that natural variability associated with the presence of El Niño conditions has a strong influence on the incidence of severe snowstorms in the eastern United States. Based on an analysis of the top 100 snowstorms in six regions east of the Rocky Mountains, scientists found that severe snowstorms are approximately twice as likely to occur in the Northeast and Southeast regions during years when a moderate to strong El Niño is present as compared to years when neutral conditions exist.

The 0z GFS is showing some love for much of NC on Valentine's Day.

18z GFS.

Looks nice.

DT isn't always consistant, so I'm not surprised that he has conflicting definitions of what he considers to be the Mid-Atlantic. In the Facebook post I linked to he defines it this way: "So to answer the question directly when we say that term MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION wxrsk is referring to the northern third of North Carolina ...all of Virginia - except maybe the Southeast corner-- the eastern half OF West Virginia... All of Maryland & Delaware ...all of New Jersey and most of Pennsylvania ... the southern third of New York State... NYC & Long Island."

This is correct. DT considers the northern 1/3 of NC as being part of the Mid-Atlantic. WHAT DOES WXRISK MEAN WHEN THEY SAY "MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION"? The WPC includes all of NC.

Currently 26.1/6.9 The high today at my location was 27.5 at 2:05pm after a morning low of 18.3. Today had the coldest afternoon high at my location since December 24, 2022, when the afternoon temperature reached 25.9.