OSUmetstud

Some of the Cat 5 landfall talk seems pretty silly. It may have been a cat 5 a few hours west of landfall in the western eyewall, but there was no evidence of it being a cat 5 at landfall that I saw. Michael actually had near 140 kt SFMR near landfall. At least one of the reasons they didn't upgrade operationally for Michael was that the SFMR does have a high bias in shallow water.

The pressure has fallen. Come on lol.

I disagree on this being a predecessor rainfall event. That's not a distinct area of rainfall separated from the TC. The radar rainfall is continuous and Miami is fairly close to Ian. PREs are coherent mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates ≥100 mm (24 h)−1, that can occur approximately 1000 km poleward of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). PREs occur most commonly in August and September, and approximately 36 h prior to the arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258420587_Predecessor_Rain_Events_ahead_of_Tropical_Cyclones

From what I can gather, the main sources of track error are: Stronger hurricane likely gets a bit further south and west. The northeast trough. Does it dig far enough southwest to drag Ian northward or does Ian miss and meander in the GOM for a few days and weaken under shear?

NHC will typically follow TVCN quite close, which is a corrected consensus blend. Until this shifts west I wouldn't expect much in the way of changes with the cone. It was the best scoring track "model" last year at nearly all lead times.

I don't like it too much up here overall, but it's an excellent tropical model nowadays.

Also, while the ECMWF does have overall superior forecasting metrics, the GFS had a lower MAE for Atlantic storms last year than the ECMWF did.

The ensembles are great, but the mean actually has a larger track MAE than the operational model. For example, the GFS ensemble had 20 NM greater error than the GFS at 120 hours in the 2021 NHC verification report. They're a tool to see different solutions, model spreads, and sensitivities to the overall weather pattern.

I think initial runs of the GFS were obviously too deep in the short term which caused the storm track more toward the Loop current as opposed to over western Cuba. Now that the storm is actually deepening, the ECMWF has been too weak and slow to come around.

ECMWF is way too far west to maximize storm surge for western Florida. The peninsula is only in minimal TS winds with that track.

Yes I'm too far for significant impacts from the looks of things

Uncle's not bad, looks a bit better to me actually.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ GFS trash lately.

There was a lot of strikes near Welland early this morning with the superband, none on BUF/IAG side that I saw.

Highest report I can find so far is 17.3" in Kenmore 0.3 ESE Cocorahs.