OSUmetstud

These are the rainfall and wind reports in Newfoundland. Pretty pedestrian for these parts, really. 1. SUMMARY OF RAINFALL IN MILLIMETRES: GANDER INT'L AIRPORT: 76.4 LETHBRIDGE: 76 GANDER CLIMATE: 72.6 BURNSIDE: 72 TERRA NOVA: 71.4 ST. ALBAN'S: 70.1 APPLETON: 65.3 BONAVISTA: 61.6 NORTH HARBOUR: 52.6 PORTLAND: 51.4 BURIN: 41.7 ST. PIERRE: 38.8 MARYSTOWN: 38.1 ST. LAWRENCE: 30.5 GRAND FALLS-WINDSOR: 28.7 WINTERLAND: 25.5 2. SUMMARY OF PEAK WIND GUSTS IN KILOMETRES PER HOUR: BONAVISTA LIGHTHOUSE: 109 CAPE PINE: 106 GREEN ISLAND-FORTUNE BAY: 105 BONAVISTA: 102 POOL'S ISLAND: 102 FERRYLAND: 97 PORT DE GRAVE: 96 TOPSAIL BLUFF: 96 DEER PARK: 95 ST. JOHN'S INT'L AIRPORT: 91 CAPE RACE: 87 ST. PIERRE: 80

Im still a little unsure of the effects here in stj. We might get a little wind smack this evening given the track guidance seems to have been coming back north a touch the past 12 hours. Could go over us or just to our north?

Yeah that's pretty oddly high too. That would generally reduce to a 10 m wind of about 70 kts when the nhc advisory intensity attm was only 60 kts. With the air temperature lower than sst you wouldnt expect a robust llj just above the surface. I wonder if there was some sort of isallobaric/baroclinic effect on the backside during et transition?

One of our Mets on a rig on the east Scotian slope reported a 2 minute sustained wind of 83 KT at 60 meters (200 ft) in the nw quad about 60 miles from the center.

Where is the cruise ship going to be with respect to Chris?

the NHC cone size is based on the last 5 years of mean average error, and it has nothing to do with model spread for a particular storm.

There's no good path for to make landfall in New England. There's a really nice +3STDEV blocking ridge over the Grand Banks, but the capturing trough is coming out of NE Canada. It's not over the midwest or wherever you might want it.

Why is the gfs output so high? I've noticed it the past month or two. Not just for this potential heat wave either.

13/5/1 May 1/0/0 June 1/0/0 July 1/0/0 Aug 5/2/0 Sep 4/2/1 Oct 1/1/0 Nov 0/0/0

QPF was over modeled there too.

Anyone know of papers discussing the overmodeling of qpf in zr events? I believe it's a thing and I've heard it discussed around here before. It definitely has manifested itself in this event so far in upstate NY and Ontario.

Ill take the under.

Those maps dont take into account any run-off.

Yeah could be. 100 MUCAPE showing up on the mesoanalysis.

Niagara county will probably get a bit of ip mixing in with this batch. There's IP whiting the ground on the cams in Cayuga, on the Peninsula.