OSUmetstud

Right. I usually like to use the Cobb 11 technique on bufkit. It takes into account rh t and omega. It generally had like 12 or 13:1 for BUF which was wrong too. I imagine what happened is that the models misplaced the omega a little too high above the warm nose. If the omega verified closer to the warm nose that 12:1 turns into 8:1 quite easily.

Kuchera algorithm does not know where the rh or the omega or the snow production is in the sounding. That's why they often fail. In mixing scenarios, even the 10:1 maps that people post often include sleet.

Kuchera maps will work in Lake effect and maybe in pure mid level def/fronto well nw of a surface low. Elsewhere theyre just shit. Regardless, some weenie will post them again for the next one only to have their soul crushed come verification.

Well objectively, forecasts are better today than they were 10, 20, 30 years ago. Having an impressive repertoire of pattern recognition is fantastic but it can only get you so far. I think the public demands more every year.

See my professional judgement a few days ago suggested that this low would be put through the shredder and squeeze east west between the pv to the north and the ridge to the se resulting in a nam/emcwf like look. This was wrong but I don't believe I was model hugging. I sided with that idea instead of the idea of convection pumping up heights (which is a common model error, too).

The old timers didn't know what was going to happen the next day. I'm sure they would have know the storm was going to come 200 miles north in the last 36 hours too....

We still doing the kuchera thing? Cool cool cool.

Last year.

Heh. St. John's Newfoundland. Going alright. You? Were kinda on the wrong end of this one. Only going to get like 2" followed by freezing rain then rain.

lol. I just notice people do that sometimes. If it's windy and there's riming you'll hear the snow hit the window, but to get proper sleet, you really need more melting aloft (like 1C or greater). This just doesn't in the right setup for sleet for WNY. Even though the GFS say sleet on the ptype maps, if you look the sounding, there's no where in the sounding above zero. The larger concern is that the models are overdoing qpf a bit given that the system is all front end warm advection and the dryslot is always closer than you think.

I dont think you'll have to worry about sleet where you are.. Some idiots will no doubt report it after midnight tonight when the lift is lower down in the column and there's significant riming and poor snow growth.

Needles are common around -5C. That's where the warm nose is at and it's pretty dry with weak omega. The lift will increase tonight and increase in depth with the incoming low, so they'll be clumps of different kinds of flakes then.

The Burlington area got 12-15", on the 12th, then a similar area got 4-6" on the 13th. You won't find it in the Hamilton airport totals because they're much further inland. Those easterly lake effect bands usually form in very light low-level synoptic flow in arctic airmass, so they don't extend very far.

There was 888k hospitalizations, 49 million infections, and about 12000 deaths in the 18-49 age group per the CDC through the end of November. 36% of that whole cohort. Small fatality risk from an individual standpoint, but a substantial hospitalization risk, and I believe it represents the largest mortality event in the US for young and middle aged adults since Vietnam.

I wouldn't call 28% particularly close, but I get your point. We are racing against time. The 17% in the 65+ is nowhere near herd immunity, and those are the ones who would obviously most benefit from the vaccine.