OSUmetstud

Nah. Meltdowns are more fun.

I mean get excited. Its been a tough winter thus far and this looks like a really nice storm for the area...but id sell widepread 3ft kuchera amounts.

Thats probably a decent first guess. Id beware of some of the obsene qpf being thrown out in the models. In the end, its still not a closed off system in the mid levels. Risk of less than ideal snow growth with warmer than you might expect 600 to 700mb layer where lift is located.

Nice. That sounding is why you wouldnt generally forecast anything over 15:1.

Maybe someone else can chime on what levels are in there. It does look like more than just a few and then interpolation.

It has profiles (like bufkit) of temp and rh. But i dont think its actually at full model vertical resolution. So warm layers can get missed.

Nice exotic solution for hazey too.

Yea. I built the FRAM into a spreadsheet at work. Id be interested to see what it would come up with (some of that qpf is ip obviously).

Yea but the majority of zr icing efficiency is explained via rates. Wet bulb temp and wind are also important but not as important as rate.

Windy.com has soundings but its just a plot of the course resolution upper level temps that exist elsewhere on the internet (925, 850, 700, 500) i think real soundings would be super pricey.

Those wxbell algorithms hate ip. Its either snow or zr which is bs.

BUF vs CLE then KC vs. NE

Speaking of bad models...the navgem turns into a coastal but mainly nails interior and nne.

Yeah. Gander should do well. Lots of warm air thrown nw of track. Annoying.

Yeah that was a bit exotic.