OSUmetstud

The warm nose got further north than modeled for sure, even BUF popped over -4C at 800mb on their 00z balloon last night. I remember only looking at minus 7 to minus 8 in area of the sounding ahead of the event. I think the rgem and the hrrr handled the warm nose advance better than the other models from what I saw.

Yeah, I mean models are pretty notorious for focusing too much precipitation in cold season northeast of lows near low level warm advection maximas and not focusing enough precipitation in the deformation zone northwest of lows. The other issue, of course, is that even if the qpf in the warm area of the low is only slightly undermodeled, 850 WAA with 850-700mb temperatures of zero to minus 8 is going to yield shit flake production.

I think there's a positive correlation with November snow and winter snow for Buffalo, I'd have to run the numbers.

000 NOUS41 KBUF 120613 PNSBUF NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-121813- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 113 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2019 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...NEW YORK... ...ERIE COUNTY... BUFFALO AIRPORT 9.4 IN 0100 AM 11/12 OFFICIAL NWS OBS 2 SE WEST SENECA 6.5 IN 1040 PM 11/11 PUBLIC 1 WSW AKRON 5.5 IN 1000 PM 11/11 NWS EMPLOYEE ...JEFFERSON COUNTY... 6 NNE CHAUMONT 4.9 IN 0930 PM 11/11 PUBLIC ...MONROE COUNTY... ROCHESTER AIRPORT 8.6 IN 0100 AM 11/12 OTHER FEDERAL 2 NW ROCHESTER 7.5 IN 1115 PM 11/11 TRAINED SPOTTER &&

ROC has been running behind BUF on accumulations so far.

KBUF 120454Z 03007KT 1/2SM R23/4500V5500FT SN FZFG VV009 M04/M06 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP149 SNINCR 1/9 P0005 T10391056 400221039 $ 9" otg now

Yeah but the end of the sentence mentions the SGZ, so I think they mean the entire lower atmosphere as a whole, which i agree with. The boundary layer per say supports some lake enhanced precipitation. If you had a legit lake enhanced setup you would be upping ratios considerably over 10:1 because you would be getting dendrites from the convection mixing in with the crappier flakes from the synoptic storm. They mention the lake enhancement at the end of the storm, which would do exactly as you said its probably going to.

I think BUF was kinda making a statement about it making an appreciable difference. At least that's how I took it. Lake enhancement isn't very effective in producing extra snow if you aren't getting the convection through the SGZ. Also, the deeper cold air is working into western Lake Erie right now, so that doesn't really disagree with their earlier discussion.

https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/data?ids=KBUF&format=raw&date=&hours=6

http://meteocentre.com/doc/metar.html fill yer boots. It's too tough to explain thoroughly in a single post. There's a lot to metar reporting code.

KBUF 120254Z 02011KT 1/2SM R23/5000V6000FT SN FZFG VV009 M03/M06 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP151 SNINCR 1/7 P0004 60013 T10331056 58018 During storms, you can look at this in the METAR here: It shows "snow increasing rapidly"...with 7" inches on the ground and 1" in the past hour to get an estimate on what they're showing.

The snowfall amount itself was just posted because of the storm.. NWS twitter and NWS chat is a public resource though.

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201911120218-KBUF-SXUS71-RERBUF

Maybe like 2-3 cm for Mississauga/Hamilton, with more like 8-14 cm for Niagara (Most east and on the escarpment).

I think another 3-6" just looking at trends.