OSUmetstud

Even he didn't know... It just seemed like maybe something to watch. If it's not in the tropics it wouldn't be as simple as strat smoke contributes to +AO given the black biomass is being release into the mid-latitudes.

HM was discussing smoke getting into the lower strat playing a role for this winter. It's a bit different than equitorial volcanism (+AO) given that the smoke is being released into the mid-latitudes and the subtropics.

73 kt is the peak sfmr in the SE quad. Not bad considering. I think it may have peaked in terms of ET transition a few hours ago.

The strongest winds should be in the SE quad for ET transition, so we'll see what that pass looks like. The pressure fell a great deal last night due to the interaction, 945mb on the extrap.

70 KT SFMR on the NW side is pretty impressive. Recon is approaching the center.

I think outside of Guysborough/Richmond and perhaps the Fundy Coast it will be just a rain maker.

This thing looks distinctly post-tropical already.

This is becoming less and less of a high impact event for Atlantic Canada. It just blows its load early and rots and fills under the block. I mentioned a few days ago that this was possible.

lol I mean, it's bad. I'm just saying it would be worse if the phasing happened a bit later, or the incoming trough was stronger and less cut-off from the flow as it approaches NS.

It looks pretty nasty, but as this point maybe not worse case scenario for Nova Scotia. While we know the waters are cool south of NS, the baroclinic assist from the incoming trough starts later Sunday and continues into Monday. By Tuesday, as Teddy approaches, the storm is more stacked and the hurricane/post-tropical is slowing down before landfall.

Its not hiting nyc

It occluded and rots. How boring.

We concern

Euro always has a slight SW bias with tropicals. It just seems more enhanced this year.

Same but for 200 NM. ECMWF/EPS as modeled is a very unusual track. Could happen, but something to keep in mind when looking at model solutions.