OSUmetstud

I was promised death and destruction!

Bringing out the big guns.

The opposite is true actually

Could just bit instrument error (on the first or second dropsonde) I'm not sure what the standard accuracy is.

There's always a bit of parallax error on the SAT overlays.

It was a 948mb dropsonde. The winds were around 10 kt.

Storm is very NE quad heavy. Flight level winds are barely hitting 100kts in the other quads. Not true surprising with solid forward motion currently. Looks pretty steady-state despite the improved appearance form last night.

It's all good

I wonder if the NHC will start to acknowledge the less than ideal environment. This storm is undergoing effects beyond the Erc. Im no expert but i l think it's been clear on satellite for much of the day.

I could see 110 kt for sure. But that's 3 lol.

Mean lowest 150 m wind doesn't support it. Maybe it's a gust.

Anyone notice that the whole SW quad had really large 700mb dewpoint depressions? 37 percent RH on the first dropsonde too.

While much of the weakening and pressure rise is probably the result of the ERC, I do see some restriction of outflow in the southeast quadrant so I think there is a bit of shear at play.

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

00z early cycle is just the 18z model with adjustment for initial position. You won't see the dropsonde advantage until the regular 00z models run.