OSUmetstud

You breathlessly posted about the canadian in the three separate threads in the middle of the night last night.

Who is we?

I'm inclined to believe the intensity forecasts from the HWRF and HMON are overdone. The storm seems to getting quite the ET push as it approaches and passes Bermuda. There's considerable asymmetry showing up in the thickness fields on the cyclone phase space. It be more inclined to believe in a larger Cat 1/2 as opposed to a major due to the degree of ET transition going on. SHIPS shear guidance shows windshear of 25 KT or so at 48 hours increasing to 40 KT at 84 hours (on Bermuda approach) to 60 KT at 96 hours (after its passed Bermuda). * ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/15/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 60 64 69 73 75 77 73 73 57 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 60 64 69 73 75 77 73 73 57 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 59 62 67 72 76 77 78 73 61 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 12 16 19 16 24 25 36 39 61 64 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -2 -1 -5 0 0 -1 1 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 276 272 254 256 261 240 236 226 223 213 221 218 228 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.9 29.0 28.1 27.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 139 138 136 140 138 151 154 140 135 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 115 115 115 115 118 118 132 136 124 118 105 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 55 58 60 61 56 56 50 50 44 44 45 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 20 20 21 25 27 29 32 35 41 34 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -3 10 9 -19 6 6 42 74 108 89 67 -6 200 MB DIV 30 18 35 42 27 21 23 52 36 74 34 71 29 700-850 TADV 8 6 4 2 4 0 -1 -6 -15 -42 -53 -53 -8 LAND (KM) 270 275 269 291 316 421 471 517 655 857 1047 967 850 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.3 29.6 30.2 30.6 31.0 31.5 32.4 33.8 35.7 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.6 77.8 77.9 77.8 77.6 76.5 75.0 73.3 70.6 67.4 63.9 60.5 57.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 4 6 8 9 13 15 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 41 46 47 42 30 25 17 28 32 17 12 3

00z Ukmet has the a strong storm out about 100 NM west of Bermuda at t+144.

Congrats bermuda

Meh. Some of these tracks appear to be from a different disturbance, too.

Yeah, development is more likely than not

Yeah, I'd say the chances are "elevated" re: climatology, but still very unlikely overall.

Boring. Most likely scenario.

6 days from Carol's development to landfall, more like 3-4 days for Bob. People will get warning either way. Track, intensity, and genesis forecasting are all way better than they were decades ago.

UKMET is out at 33.5, -72.2 about 250 NM off the coast of NC at the end of its run (144) and has a strong, large hurricane. Looks to me it would make a slow escape northeast from there.

We probably get an average of like 2 additional days of weather predictability now compared to when Gloria happened.

NHC had a low bias in the 2-day and 5-day genesis probabilities last year. 70 percent forecast probabilities verified in development between 85 and 90 percent of the time and 80 percent 5-day probabilities verified in development 90 percent of the time.

Definitely possible if it stays on the weak side and develops a bit later. Strong models UKMET/ECMWF) develop early from what i can see .

Yeah, there's a decent signal for a MJO wave later this month into early October. Could get interesting with increased activity and midwest/east trough pattern with the north atlantic ridge.