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dmb8021

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  1. Just had thunder in the northern Bronx.
  2. dmb8021

    Hurricane Irma Local Impacts/Evacuations

    The Dolphins are scheduled to host the Bucs at 1 pm on Sunday in Miami. I know the NFL is discussing what to do with the game, with one of the options is to move the game to Friday. As of now, is the forecast for Miami to have tropical storm conditions starting on Friday?
  3. dmb8021

    Potential Hermine Impacts

    Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued
  4. There was some discussion in the observation thread about where yesterday's blizzard ranks on the NESIS scale. I thought it would be useful to have a poll to see what everyone thinks. Looking at the distribution of snow totals by location, it looks similar to 1996. Here are 1-17 on the NESIS list: 1/23/2016 Blizzard Totals
  5. I'm in woodlawn, but I haven't gone out to measure, so I won't be able to help. Just curious what you measured.
  6. What did the 4K NAM show for the subforum? I've seen that in previous runs the 4K and 12K have been different.
  7. dmb8021

    Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion

    what have the models been showing today with regards to the wind?
  8. dmb8021

    Observations for Sat Sun Mon winter storm

    Snow is now starting to mix in
  9. dmb8021

    Observations for Sat Sun Mon winter storm

    It just started sleeting in Rockland
  10. well i'm in Rockland, and I can tell you nothing is falling, not even flurries
  11. snow still seems to be having a lot of trouble making it west over the Hudson
  12. Orange and Putnam counties did not have Blizzard watches, but are included in the Blizzard Warning.
  13. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1120 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 VALID JAN 25/1200 UTC THRU JAN 29/0000 UTC CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A NOR'EASTER MON/TUE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT EAST-WEST AND SLIGHT PROGRESSION ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH PLAY HAVOC WITH THE QPF/PRECIPITATION/WINTER WEATHER FORECAST. IN REVIEWING THE 00Z ECMWF, 12Z NAM, AND 12Z GFS, ALL THREE HAVE WHAT APPEAR TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYES CONTAMINATING THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF'S SLOWS DOWN THE OVERALL CYCLONE MORE THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM'S BULL'S EYES OVER THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST APPEAR TO CAUSE AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN ITS 12Z SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE GFS'S BULL'S EYE/QPF BOMB DRAGS ITS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CIRCULATION ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ON ITS 12Z RUN, MORE TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE DESPITE ITS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME WOBBLING OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM DUE TO AN INVADING SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS SOUTHWEST SIDE ON TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A LESS EVEN FORWARD PROGRESSION. THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS MIRRORS THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AMONGST THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND UKMET. THERE IS NO OVERARCHING TREND SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY TOWARDS A QUICKER OR SLOWER SOLUTION, THOUGH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD -- IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 12Z GFS. THE OCCASIONALLY SLOW/PLODDING 09Z SREF MEAN LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD, QUICKER THAN THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. SINCE NO SOLUTION CAN BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED WHEN USING THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD, 700 HPA HEIGHT FIELD, AND 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD, FAVOR A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/12Z GFS/12Z NAM, WHICH ROUGHLY RESEMBLES THE 09Z SREF MEAN AT 500 HPA AND THE SURFACE. FOR QPF AND WINTER WEATHER CHOICES, SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSIONS AND GRAPHICS.
  14. dmb8021

    Potential coastal storm 1/26-28

    What are winds looking like?
  15. dmb8021

    Thanksgiving Eve Nor'Easter OBS ONLY

    I asked if the lights just flickered, and then about 2 seconds later a loud and long rumble of thunder. That explained that and I was glad I wasn't going crazy.
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