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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. It's been a decently warm June so far too lol. Its just a coating where I actually live in center city closer to 250 ft asl...but Pippy Park at 700 ft is where I took pics. They'll probably pick up 4" up there before the night is over.
  2. I thought vaccinated Americans are good to go for many European countries? Also, I bet Canada opens to vaccinated Americans by that time. New Zealand is in a tough spot. While they've been good at keeping Sars cov 2, they haven't done a good job at procuring vaccines. They might not be open for some time.
  3. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(21)00089-9/fulltext This is the study RT was referencing.
  4. Do you have a link to the study?
  5. I meant to post this study earlier. Body Mass Index and Risk for COVID-19–Related Hospitalization, Intensive Care Unit Admission, Invasive Mechanical Ventilation, and Death — United States, March–December 2020. (2021). https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e4.htm ARR for death is 2.01 under 65 for BMI > 45 ARR for death is 1.50 over 65 for BMI > 45
  6. We might have prevented like 10s of thousands of deaths if everyone were of normal BMI. Seriously. There was 600k deaths or so far (perhaps more). Maybe you prevent half the 20k deaths or so under 50. I'm all for health. But it's only going to make a dent because obesity is a much smaller issue for death above 65.
  7. Order of magnitude less consequential? That's a lie given the risk association with obesity and covid. The biggest risk by far is age. Vaccines prevent disease. They are not a band aid.
  8. The biggest risk of covid is by far age not being overweight. Being overweight is much more important if you're under 50...but given that covid deaths are far higher in the old...it doesn't have a large effect on the total mortality of the disease. Vaccines are literally the ****ing solution to a once in a 100-year pandemic. It's not band aid. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
  9. I went out to dinner the other night and listened to some irish music with my gf. So I would say Im doing alright. Thanks for asking, though.
  10. I think we want most of them to shut down at some point, right? lol.
  11. Dude, it has no bearing. No one knows whether their presymptomatic or asymptomatic at any given moment. Hence, asymptomatic people are spreading the freaking disease.
  12. half the spread is in presymptomatic individuals you fool. Study after study show the serial interval be the same as the incubation period. There wouldn't be a pandemic if there was only spread in symptomatic individuals. It would be like SARS or ebola. This is the latest guidance on it from the CDC. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html ** The lower bound of this parameter is approximated from the lower 95% confidence interval bound from: He X, Lau EH, Wu P, et al. Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19. Nature Med. 2020;26(5):672–675. The upper bound of this parameter is approximated from the higher estimates of individual studies included in: Casey M, Griffin J, McAloon CG, et al. (2020). Estimating presymptomatic transmission of COVID-19: A secondary analysis using published data. medRxiv. The best estimate is the geometric mean of the point estimates from these two studies and aligns with estimates from: Moghadas SM, Fitzpatrick MC, Sah P, et al. The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2020;117(30):17513–17515. Johansson MA, Quandelacy TM, Kada S, et al. 2021. SARS-CoV-2 transmission from people without COVID-19 symptoms. JAMA Network Open 2021;4(1):e2035057-e2035057.
  13. Yeah its interesting. Like I said, Maine has less natural immunity than nearly any other state. People are also interacting more the last month or two than they did before. That's the least vaccinated cohort. So it makes sense you would see most of it there and not in older folks. 16 to 29 38% first dose, 24% fully. If you include kids its 19% first dose, 12% fully. https://www.maine.gov/covid19/vaccines/dashboard
  14. Yeah I think so. The behavior is relaxing at the same time the vaccines are happening and the coverage is lower in the prime spreading population.
  15. I guess we'll see there. Just spitballing Less natural immunity than other areas. Maine has the 4th least cases and deaths per capita Vaccine coverage is excellent in the 65+ population (85%) but 43% in the 16 to 49 population. With little natural immunity the disease can still spread in younger people but with an ever decreasing case fatality rate.
  16. I haven't seen any studies yet that compared post vaccine infection with post infection infection. I'd imagine they're both pretty effective. The main advantage of the vaccine is obviously the lack of mortality and morbidity. If I had to guess, vaccines are better at preventing infection due to the strong antibody response but the natural virus might be better for longevity against variants due to more epitopes from the whole virus.
  17. This is infection risk not symptomatic covid risk. Phase 3 trials looked at the latter. Both natural and vaccine immunity should have greater effectiveness at reducing symptomatic covid, hospitalizations, and deaths, but a smaller effectiveness at reducing infection. There is no comparison here between natural immunity and vaccine immunity in this study.
  18. I think that the CDC has estimated in those studies is that the infected percentage of the oldest cohort is lower...which is advantageous. 65+ is 23% positive. That cohort has high vaccine uptake. The 18 to 49 cohort is 41% positive with lower vaccine uptake....so combined you might get closer to 70 to 80% immunity.
  19. I dont actually believe it's a population issue for this purpose. We're geographically isolated and implemented travel restrictions. Newfoundland literally had no community spread for months. Massachusetts has always had an endemic level of disease since like Feb 2020.
  20. Read the conversation, this whole thing started because people started dunking on Nova Scotia and Canada in general. It's amazing that people who lived in Massachusetts would have the gall to do that.
  21. Wasn't their state travel restrictions early on? We don't have domestic vaccine manufacturing so we had a slower start, but just over 30% have a first dose now. It's much better than many other countries, but not as good as the US, the UK, or Israel. The daily rates lately are similar to the US. I never suggested that what Atlantic Canada did could work there.
  22. I do, I just can't imagine gloating about how Mass has done. You haven't been particularly open and you've had a hell of a lot of death and disease.
  23. Mass has like 25 times the deaths per capita, congrats. And, we've had schools mostly open up here which is a big advantage of downstream costs to the American experience.
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