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OSUmetstud

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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. OSUmetstud
    Josephine sustained deep convection within the rmw for about 18 to 24 hours. Looks like its more open this morning as it goes over a colder eddy and begins extratropical transition.
  2. OSUmetstud
    Nantucket is pretty damn close and who cares? The NHC isn't naming this because they are concerned about US effects. The low has much stronger winds over the open ocean southeast of New England.
  3. OSUmetstud
    The hurricane-force winds that develop on the west side of Josephine late today look like the direct result of extratropical transition.
  4. OSUmetstud
    In order for a subtropical storm to intensify enough to become a hurricane, it generally has to develop a fairly deep warm core. That's why theres no subtropical hurricanes. Like all this stuff there are shades of gray. The regular name list has been used for subtropicals since 2002 which was prompted by Bermuda's experience with Karen in 2001.
  5. OSUmetstud
    Josephine is forecast to reach hurricane intensity as a post tropical. I believe that means it will not count as a hurricane in the database.
  6. OSUmetstud
    I deleted that because the RONI/ONI standard deviations for OISST and ERSSTv6 are very similar which means it must have been scaled despite the differences.
  7. OSUmetstud
    Definitely but that graph also has the ecmwf model climate and the prediction is weaker than that, too. A weaker pv and a tendency towards blocking in a very strong nino year doesnt seem too surprising to me.
  8. OSUmetstud
    ECMWF October Nino plumes adjusted upward in Nino 1&2 and Nino 3, stayed consistent from the previous month in Nino 3.4, and lowered the forecast for Nino 4.
  9. OSUmetstud
    NOAA CORe showing (probably?) slightly below-normal temps in May, near-normal temps in June, and near-normal temps in July in the Arctic 80+N area. Contoured at 1F. Very difficult to get real surface temperature departures at all in this area at peak summer due to the cooling and stabilizing effect of the slushy ocean.
  10. OSUmetstud
    @bluewavewhere are you getting that second anomaly/significance chart from?
  11. OSUmetstud
    NOAA Offical RONI ERSSTv6 released for September and JAS. 2.08C and 1.69C
  12. OSUmetstud
    Nino 1.2 really went for broke this past month. ECMWF September forecast and spread overlaid with verification.
  13. OSUmetstud
    We can debate oni v roni all we want but you still have at least four different SST analyzes and climatologies and roni adjustments and scaling at the bom, cpc, ukmet, and ecmwf. So good luck!
  14. OSUmetstud
    We really giving the flu and other cold viruses credit for cold deaths lol.
  15. OSUmetstud
    OSTIA SST (UKMET/ECMWF) anomaly over the past 60 days
  16. OSUmetstud
    Forecast from the Canadian seasonal of various climate data indices. Big positive sst anomalies still look too west to me. https://dd.weather.gc.ca/today/ensemble/cansips/csv/indices/forecast/monthly/ 2026093000_indices_month_202610_202709.csv.PDF
  17. OSUmetstud
    It's bad faith to make strong conclusions from the original because a) it's not comparing the reanalysis to the reanalysis climatology and b) there's an obvious change after the ocean and sea-ice upgrade. My analysis should speak for itself and I am confident in my conclusions. I don't need some other posters in another forum to back me up.
  18. OSUmetstud
    If you want it, I was able to do some area averages in QGIS myself for 80 °N relative to ERA5 1991–2020 Normals May -0.2 °C June -0.4 °C July -0.2 °C August 0.9 °C Another piece of evidence—Arctic Sea ice extent is near the 2011–2020 average. It was not a crazy melt summer but it was not particularly cold, either.
  19. OSUmetstud
    The ecmwf was upgraded on May 12, 2026. What do you notice? IFS users will also see the introduction of the new NEMO4-SI³ ocean and sea-ice model, bringing substantial improvements in forecasts and analysis over the marine areas, as well as over 40 new ocean and sea ice-related variables. Key improvements include a more accurate representation of how sea ice affects the power of waves and the interactions between waves and ocean currents, often at play in rougher seas. Other improvements for IFS include improved tropical upper-air temperature and wind forecasts, and improvements to temperature and humidity forecasts around the tropopause. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/ifs-cycle-50r1-aifsv2-live What's likely happening here is actually the new ecmwf 2 m temperatures over the Arctic are more accurate as the near surface inversion is more properly coupled to the ice and the cold ocean. The old 2 m ERA40 climatology is what's too warm.
  20. OSUmetstud
    This plot is not consistent with 2 m temperature being 2 C below the much older 1958 to 2002 climatology all summer. This area is all ocean/ice.
  21. OSUmetstud
    The rather obvious issue is youre comparing the ecmwf operational forecast 2 m temperature all summer to the ERA40 (old climatology) temperature of the reanalysis (apples to oranges). Copernicus/ECMWF climate pulse i posted is comparing the reanalysis anomalies to 1991-2020 ERA5 climatology and clearly by that standard (apples to apples) the summer temperatures are not crazy anomalous.
  22. OSUmetstud
    Its a data bug. The reanalysis data up there for July and August is near normal. https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/2075198146641051650
  23. OSUmetstud
    Btw, the bom forecast for roni 3 was spot on from last month. Like other agencies the roni 4 was a big positive bias fail.
  24. OSUmetstud
    Traditionally weekly noaa sst anomalies are at record in 1.2, 3, and 3.4 now.
  25. OSUmetstud
    Anomaly increases the past 15 days.
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