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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. Right, I guess I wasn't sure how much the shorter term jogs to the right would affect the final landfall location, given that the forcing latter should be left.
  2. The synoptic pattern to me suggests that stronger=west. I think a stronger Ida ends up diabatically building that ridge to the northwest of it.
  3. There's a double wind max on recon.
  4. Brian Tang's MAE analysis is showing HWRF having the best performance with this storm so far, at basically all lead times.
  5. a bit over an hour ago. Symmetrical, with banding, but no proper CDO or bonafide eyewall.
  6. An accordion plays, gently
  7. That's the first time it's had hurricane-force SFMR
  8. You know the storm is going to be weaksauce when the majority of the talk is about many people are going to lose power.
  9. Latest extrap pressure is 984mb on the recon. Certainly has been deepening today, fallen about 10mb or so from this morning. No stronger winds found yet though.
  10. Recon mission 12 will be there in an hour or so.
  11. Henri was just too ferocious, had to turn back.
  12. An Andy Dalton led offense? Yep.
  13. The whole northeast and Ma is awash in warm air at the low and mid levels. There just isn't much of an ET assist here. Very little baroclinicity.
  14. I'm assuming this track is bad for Narragansett Bay? The winds kinda stay out of the south/southeast because of the angle of approach.
  15. I can see on a eye on the vis now.
  16. Idk. The recon this morning had a bit less of that e wind maximum as it had tightened and become more stacked. I think it will be small for new England TCs but probably better on the east side than the modeling would suggest
  17. I lost power for almost 2 hours last night in thunderstorms. By far the best show in my 6 years here.
  18. I guess the idea is that it will shed off the east wind maximum as it reorganizes and strengthens? Because last night that's where the strongest winds were...like 85 NM SE of the center.
  19. You are literally making up conspiracy based on bullshit. Dont try to justify it to me. Both the news station making up track guidance to fearmonger and the nhc nudging intensity are completely fact free crap that you use to wow us with your psychobabble.
  20. I mean that literally lol. With the feet sticking out toward NC. Or a fetus perhaps.
  21. This was last year's track model verification for those curious. Gfs outperformed the euro at most lead times.
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